The Chicago White Sox have authored one of the great stories in Major League Baseball this season as they have been in the top spot of the American League Central and holding on to the No. 2 seed in the AL playoff structure since July 4. All this from a team that had endured three consecutive 100-loss seasons. The White Sox had the most losses (41-121) of the expansion era in 2024 and they have become a first-place team.
However, that status is in deep jeopardy as they play in the home stretch of the season. A brutal defeat after leading with two outs and two strikes in the bottom of the ninth inning against the Cleveland Guardians Tuesday night has left them hanging on to the lead in the division by 1/2 game. They are at the do-or-die point of the season and the White Sox could not only lose their lead in the division to the on-rushing Guardians, they could fall out of the playoff structure altogether if they can't fight their way out of a batting slump or make crucial pitches in the final 11 games of the season.
Manager Will Venable and the White Sox will not have any easy matchups if they hold on to the division lead or even if they make the playoffs. However, the worst scenario and the most difficult matchup would see them losing home field advantage and going into the postseason as the road team in a best-of-3 Wild Card matchup against the Guardians or Texas Rangers.
However, if they can hold on to the division lead and finish ahead of the West Division winner, they would get a bye in the Wild Card round and gain a pass into the divisional round of the playoffs. They would play the winner of the series between the division winner with the worst record (No. 3 seed) and the last Wild Card qualifier (No. 6 seed). That would be the ideal scenario.
White Sox have not seen their offense produce in recent weeks
The White Sox made their way to respectability and then the division lead earlier in the year largely because they hit for power and also came through in clutch situations.
The big hitters were Japanese import Munetaka Murakami, shortstop Colston Montgomery and All-Star 3rd baseman Miguel Vargas.
Murakami has hit 31 home runs and driven in 65 runs in his first year playing Major League Baseball after a successful run his home country. However, Murakami is slashing .202/.344/.460.
There have been two Murakamis this season. He was a dominant hitter in April and May as he bashed the ball over the fence on a regular basis, hitting 20 home runs with 41 RBI. However, he has not been the same hitter after a hamstring injury that kept him out of the lineup for more than five weeks. He has been in a deep slump in September, hitting just .114 this month.
Montgomery has similar numbers to Murakami as he also has 31 home runs and has driven in 84 runs. However, his slash line of .204/.289/.421 is indicative of the all-or-nothing approach he has had this season. His inconsistency has been even more pronounced in September, as he is hitting .119 this month.
Article Continues BelowThe story continues with Vargas, who also has 31 home runs and 84 RBI. He has a better slash line than Murakami or Montgomery at .249/.358/.475, but he has also fallen in September. While his .224 batting average this month is not as brutal as the other two, he has not been an asset for the White Sox.
Worst scenario would involve a series against Rangers or Guardians
If the White Sox lose their grip on the AL Central but still hold on to a Wild Card spot, they would be the No. 6 seed in the American League playoffs. The New York Yankees and the Boston Red Sox are the No. 2 and 3 seeds, and they are basically locked into those positions unless the Yankees can run down the AL East-leading Tampa Bay Rays. The Yankees and Red Sox will play in the Wild Card round.
The No. 6 seed will play the Guardian, Rangers or Houston Astros. One of those three teams will earn the No. 2 seed as the division winner with the second-best record behind the Rays. The third division winner will face the No. 6 seed.
The Guardians would be a tough matchup because they would have the momentum of having caught and passed the White Sox in the AL Central. However, the White Sox have won the season series (7-5, going into the last game of the season series) from the Guardians, so there would at least be some degree of confidence.
However, a series against the Rangers could be an issue. The Rangers have a couple of outstanding starting pitchers in Jacob de Grom and Nathan Eovaldi, who both have impressive pedigrees and can dominate in key games.
Eovaldi has had huge success in the postseason during his career, while deGrom is capable of shutting down any lineup.
The presence of former 2-time World Series MVP Corey Seager in the lineup would also make the Rangers a nightmare opponent for the White Sox.
A series against the Houston Astros would also be tough, but not as bad as matchups with the Guardians or Rangers. The Astros have lost 6 of their last 9 games and slugger Yordan Alvarez has slumped in September with just 2 home runs this month.