It’s always a popular question — or string of questions — during my Friday live streams on the NFL on NBC YouTube channel: Which slot receivers have the best matchups? And which outside (boundary) wideouts are in good spots?
While it shouldn’t be the deciding factor in how you make your weekly lineup decisions, knowing if a pass catcher has a particularly good or bad matchup is valuable information that can sometimes serve as a tiebreaker for your most vexing start-sit decisions.
This season I’ll use this space to break down the best (and worst) matchups for pass catchers operating from the slot and those lining up primarily on the boundary. Some pass catchers, as you know, split their time between the boundary and the slot, making this little exercise more complicated. I’ll do my best to pinpoint the most appealing (and unappealing) weekly matchups, and what they might mean for your weekly start-sit decisions.
Starting this week I’m switching from adjusted yards per attempt to target share as the primary metric for evaluating slot and boundary matchups. AY/A can be very much skewed by a big play or two, leaving us chasing (unpredictable) big plays. I’ll still use AY/A — along with completion rate over expected — in my analysis here. But target share to the slot and boundary will get the graphic treatment going forward.
▶ Slot matchups
Rams vs. Eagles
Philadelphia opponents have been eating up the Birds’ defense via the slot through three weeks, as you can see by the blue bars above. We love the blue bars when they tell a clear story.
The Eagles defense has given up the third most fantasy points to slot pass catchers this season (behind the Colts and Ravens). Only six teams have allowed a higher adjusted yards per attempt on slot throws. It sets up well for Puka Nacua, Davante Adams, and, weirdly, Tyler Higbee — if Terrance Ferguson misses the game with an ankle issue.
The zoomers don’t know about Higbee, who sometimes becomes the greatest tight end of all time for a few games in a row before fading into obscurity. In Week 3 against Denver he came in for Ferguson and ran a route on 72 percent of LA’s drop backs on his way to 11 targets. Higbee for some reason led the Rams in first-read targets and -- importantly for our purposes -- operated from the slot on nearly half of his routes.
Colby Parkinson could mess things up for Higbee if his knee is slightly less bulky in Week 4. Parkinson last week ran just 12 routes and saw one target. But Higbee seems to be in a good spot.
Commanders vs. Colts
I guess my takeaway after analyzing the Commanders’ Week 4 matchup is that Terry McLaurin -- the team’s air yards devourer -- and Stefon Diggs are in excellent spots.
I wrote in this week’s Regression Files about McLaurin’s air yards profile with Marcus Mariota under center, and now I’ll tell you Diggs is set to take advantage of a matchup with an Indy coverage unit that has seen the second highest target rate to the slot.
In Mariota’s first start last week, Diggs logged a higher-than-usual 77 percent route rate; 60 percent of those routes originated in the slot, leading Washington’s offense. He’ll now go against a Colts defense allowing a league-high 26 percent completion rate over expected to slot wideouts through Week 3. Normal game script probably won’t produce a lot of pass volume for a Washington offense passing the ball at a 52 percent neutral rate, but Diggs’ matchup should be enough to keep him in 12-team lineups this week.
Dolphins vs. Vikings
Here’s more Malik Washington propaganda in case you didn’t get enough in Week 4’s Regression Files: Minnesota opponents are throwing to the slot quite a bit through three weeks and Washington is running from the slot on about half of his routes.
Miami’s offense doesn’t have much going for it this week against the ultra-mega-giga-turbo elite Vikings defense, as indicated by their 13.5-point implied total. Washington, however, could see a bunch of targets if/when the Dolphins play catch up against the Vikes, especially if Caleb Douglas misses another game.
Giants vs. Cardinals
I don’t have great news for Isaiah Likely drafters, who probably had a top-three tight end if Jaxson Dart had played seventeen games this season. Nevertheless, you persist.
Not only does Arizona’s defense allow the lowest slot target share — they also allow a bottom half completion rate over expected on throws to the slot. Their 7.1 adjusted yards per attempt on slot throws ranks 18th in the league headed into Week 4.
The Cardinals have been generous to boundary guys. That could be a nice little boon for Malik Nabers. For Likely — running 75 percent of his routes from the slot — it’s something short of ideal.
▶ Boundary matchups
Bucs vs. Packers
I am aware, in case you’re wondering, that Jalon Daniels — the starting QB at Kansas for most of the past two decades — is making his first NFL start this week against Green Bay. And I am aware that the Daniels-led Bucs are probably going to have exceedingly few passing yards in Week 4.
I only write this to tell you, the dear, desperate reader, that Ted Hurst runs 66 percent of his pass routes from the boundary and has been an air yards eater over the past couple weeks. On the season, Hurst is just five air yards short of Emeka Egbuka’s team lead. Hurst is the living definition of a high-variance option, but that variance might include a long catch or two this week against a Packers secondary allowing the 11th highest EPA per target and tenth highest adjusted yards per attempt on boundary throws.
Colts vs. Commanders
For as much as Josh Downs cooked in Week 3 with Alec Pierce sidelined — and he surely cooked, as we discussed on the Rotoworld Football Show — his Week 4 matchup isn’t all that great. I think you’re still starting him in 12-team leagues though.
With Pierce out, Laquon Treadwell ran by far the most outside routes in Week 3. Keenan Allen, meanwhile, operated from the boundary on 48 percent of his routes (Downs was at 26 percent). This profiles as another Allen Game, whatever that might mean, a week after he was targeted on 32 percent of his routes. It doesn’t hurt that Washington’s defense is one of the most pronounced pass funnels in the league right now. Only the Steelers and Cardinals have allowed a higher adjusted yards per attempt on boundary passes through Week 3.
Cardinals vs. Giants
Michael Wilson, running from the boundary at a 78 percent rate, is going to cook against the Giants secondary and there’s nothing anyone can do about it.
Even Marvin Harrison, Jr. — operating from the boundary on 80 percent of his routes — could accidentally catch a football or three against New York. You never know.
Eagles vs. Rams
The Eagles might be left with no choice but to let Makai Lemon touch the ball a few times in Week 4 against a Rams team that has shut down boundary wideouts so far this season. Complicating matters: DeVonta Smith is (extremely) iffy with a hamstring issue.
Lemon this season is leading the Eagles offense in slot routes. That hasn’t meant much so far, as he’s been targeted on just 11 percent of his routes. Smith’s absence should boost Lemon’s targets with Dontayvian Wicks having the unwelcome task of matching up against LA’s boundary corners, who have given up the sixth lowest adjusted yards per attempt on throws to the outside.
