Week 2 Best and Worst WR, TE Matchups: Parker Washington gets a promising matchup; Kendrick Bourne does not

It’s always a popular question — or string of questions — during my Friday live streams on the NFL on NBC YouTube channel: Which slot receivers have the best matchups? And which outside (boundary) wideouts are in good spots?

While it shouldn’t be the deciding factor in how you make your weekly lineup decisions, knowing if a pass catcher has a particularly good or bad matchup is valuable information that can sometimes serve as a tiebreaker for your most vexing start-sit decisions.

This season I’ll use this space to break down the best (and worst) matchups for pass catchers operating from the slot and those lining up primarily on the boundary. Some pass catchers, as you know, split their time between the boundary and the slot, making this little exercise more complicated. I’ll do my best to pinpoint the most appealing (and unappealing) weekly matchups, and what they might mean for your weekly start-sit decisions.

▶ Slot Matchups

TB vs. CLE: Some of these numbers are going to be giga-turbo-nuclear wonky for a couple weeks before things normalize and we have slightly larger sample sizes with which to work. What I’m saying is that the Cleveland defense is not going to allow 34 adjusted yards per attempt to slot pass catchers all season long. This, as you know, is analytics. Anyway, the Browns seem vulnerable to the slot. Each of the team’s starting safeties allowed an EPA per target of over 3 in the season opener against Jacksonville. That’s … hard to do.

This should be another lovely little spot for Emeka Egbuka, who appeared in this week’s Regression Files after seeing nearly 70 percent of Tampa’s air yards in Week 1. Egbuka ran about 30 percent of his routes from the slot while Chris Godwin led the Bucs with a 57 percent slot rate against the Bengals. Both Godwin and Egbuka could cook in Week 2 against the Browns.

KC vs. IND: Sunday was a rough one for Colts DB Justin Walley. He allowed six grabs for 110 yards on six targets in the slot as the Ravens ran roughshod over the horseshoes. Lamar Jackson was 36 percent over his expected completion rate when targeting the slot. It was all very bad for the Colts. This week the Chiefs are in prime position to exploit Indy’s slot issues with Rashee Rice and Travis Kelce. Rice in Week 1 led KC with a 45 percent slot rate; Kelce ran 30 percent of his routes from the slot. Patrick Mahomes reverting to Checkdown Charlie — averaging a league-low 4.7 air yards per pass in Week 1 — should mean plenty of easy-button looks for Kelce and Rice. It’s a nice bounceback spot for both guys.

JAC vs. DEN: Parker Washington Szn will continue unabated in Week 2 against Denver. Kansas City’s offense last week tormented Broncos DB Ja’Quan McMillan, who was exploited to the tune of 1.2 EPA per target. Broncos CB Jahdae Barron was also shredded in slot coverage.

WAS vs. DAL: Stefon Diggs is in another fine spot this week, facing off against a Dallas secondary that allowed the league’s sixth-highest completion rate over expected to slot pass catchers in Week 1 against the Giants. Chig Okonkwo, who ran 60 percent of his Week 1 pass routes from the slot, could also benefit here. Diggs, for one, needs to be in all 12-team league lineups after being targeted on a gaudy 36 percent of his routes in Week 1.

ARI vs. SEA: Maybe you rushed to the waiver wire and nabbed Kendrick Bourne after the wily veteran was targeted on 28 percent of his Week 1 routes on his way to eight looks from Jacoby Brissett, the most among Arizona receivers. I think you’ll need to think twice — maybe three times — about starting Bourne in 12-team leagues this week against the nightmare Seattle secondary. Bourne, who last week led all Cardinals wideouts with a 63 percent route rate, is facing a Seahawks defense that includes slot stoppers Julian Love and Devon Witherspoon. This isn’t a great spot for Trey McBride either, though he can get there with pure volume. McBride had 16 catches for 179 yards and a touchdown in two meetings with Seattle last season. That’s a lot.

▶ Boundary Matchups

MIN vs. CHI: Perhaps you are an observant fantasy football obsessive who saw in the section above that Chicago’s defense shut down Carolina’s slot passing in their Week 1 barn burner against Bryce Young and company. Almost everything the Bears gave up through the air last week came via the boundary, as Jalen Coker and to a lesser extent, Tetairoa McMillan, had their way on the outside. Young, in fact, was 24 percent over his expected completion rate on boundary targets against Chicago. Only the Bengals and Browns gave up a higher CPOE to boundary wideouts.

Both Jordan Addison and Justin Jefferson operated from the boundary at an (expected) 80 percent rate in the Vikings’ Week 1 win against Green Bay. Jefferson did stuff with his targets while Addison was mostly there to get some exercise and run around for a few hours, which is something we should all do once in a while. Addison was targeted on a fairly depressing 8 percent of his routes against the Packers. He was fourth in air yards among Minnesota pass catchers. Whoever avoids Bears CB Jaylon Johnson has a shot at fantasy production. That should be Addison in Week 2. I think you can still start him in 12-team leagues. Maybe.

CIN vs. HOU: The Regression Reaper is coming for both Ja’Marr Chase and Tee Higgins this week against a Houston secondary that was shredded by the Bills in Week 1. Most of that damage came on targets to outside receivers; even tight end Dalton Kincaid operated from the boundary on a couple of his Week 1 grabs against the Texans. In fact, nearly 70 percent of the Bills’ air yards came on throws to boundary pass catchers. Higgins, in particular, should eat.

NYJ vs. GB: In last week’s Regression Files, after looking very powerfully into last year’s defensive trends, I told you the Packers were going to be pretty dang bad against boundary guys. In Week 1, they were: Carson Wentz completed 11 of 14 targets to outside receivers; only three quarterbacks had a higher QB rating on boundary targets in Week 1.

This compels me, for a second straight week, to write about Garrett Wilson and Adonai Mitchell. In Week 1 against the Titans they ran 80 and 78 percent of the Jets’ routes, respectively. Mitchell accounted for 38 percent of the team’s air yards; Garrett led the team with a 48 percent air yards share. Both guys had strong profiles that could translate well against a secondary that often gets ripped by outside receivers. Wilson, for his part, was targeted on 33 percent of his pass routes from the boundary last week against Tennessee, the third-highest rate among all wideouts in Week 1. While Mitchell will be a more volatile option, both New York receivers are in good Week 2 spots.

PIT vs. NE: New England struggling against boundary guys gives me yet another chance to tell the good Rotoworld readers that DK Metcalf ran ice cold in Week 1 against Atlanta and is very much due for a visit from the Regression Reaper (the good kind of visit). For the worry warts, it’s unclear whether Metcalf will be shadowed by Christian Gonzalez this week.

SF vs. MIA: I’m begging you not to read too much into the Dolphins shutting down Raiders boundary wideouts in Week 1. Vegas might have the worst receiver room this side of Miami and the Raiders’ game plan last week had nothing to do with their outside receivers. Mike Evans last week was top-seven in gaining separation on boundary routes, according to Fantasy Points Data. He should be fine against Miami.