UFC Vegas 121 Predictions: Best Bets for Saturday’s Fight Card

It’s back home to the Meta APEX for the UFC, as UFC Vegas 121 hosts fighters who may be the faces of tomorrow for the MMA promotion.

In the main event, rising bantamweight Raul Rosas Jr. faces his toughest challenge yet as he takes on veteran Raoni Barcelos in a contenders’ battle.

Rosas is 12-1 as a fighter, including a 6-1 Octagon record and five straight wins entering this matchup. He last fought at UFC 326 in March, cementing contender status with a win over veteran Rob Font.

After a five-fight rough patch between 2021 and 2023, Barcelos enters this fight having won five straight as well. He last fought in April, scoring a split decision over Montel Jackson.

A women’s bantamweight battle features in the co-main event, as Norma Dumont takes on Allin Perez. Dumont had won six straight before dropping a decision to Joselyne Edwards this past April. Perez, meanwhile, still has her six-fight win streak, having last fought in a decision win over Macy Chiasson at UFC Mexico City in February.

The rest of the main card will feature Luis Hernandez vs. Sedriques Dumas, as well as the bantamweight and women’s strawweight finals of The Ultimate Fighter season 34 – Mehemmedeli Osmanli vs. Ilimbek Akylbek Uulu and Melissa Amaya vs. Tina Black.

RAUL ROSAS JR VS RAONI BARCELOS

This is perhaps going to be the toughest test for Rosas. Yes, he’s faced a former contender in Font, but this fight with Barcelos isn’t just about facing a veteran – it’s also Rosas’ first five-round main event opportunity in the UFC. Rosas’ grappling has been his bread and butter for success. For instance, he managed to score multiple takedowns on Font and used his relentless wrestling pace to stay on top and in control for a majority of the fight. The problem is that Barcelos isn’t just a good striker; he also has good grappling, and a notable takedown defense percentage.

Barcelos’ jiu-jitsu could force Rosas to work more for takedowns and cause more exchanges on the ground than Rosas may be comfortable with. Barcelos might be much older, but the experience can be a problem for Rosas if Barcelos keeps his distance, defends the takedowns, and works his punches. If Rosas can find success in putting Barcelos down on his back, then it’s a good sign for this fight – and perhaps Rosas’ UFC outlook.

BET: Fight to go OVER 3.5 rounds (DraftKings: -180)

LUIS HERNANDEZ VS SEDRIQUES DUMAS

This is one of those notable Dana White’s Contender Series opportunities, as Hernandez, an active-duty law enforcement officer, only won his UFC contract less than two weeks ago. Now, he steps into competition on short notice against Sedriques Dumas after Mickey Gall was forced out of action this week. And yes, the “cop vs. convict” storyline is all over this one.

Dumas is going from a middleweight bout against someone who is a grappling expert, and also doesn’t have the greatest of MMA records, to a light heavyweight bout against an unbeaten prospect who has shown a strong ability to mix it up. The bout boils down to who has the better short turnaround game planning. Dumas needs to avoid being drawn into a firefight to succeed in this one; he needs to push the fight at a pace that makes Hernandez uncomfortable, or else Hernandez’s abilities will be too much.

BET: Hernandez to win AND Under 1.5 rounds SGP (Caesars: -125)

MEHEMMEDELI OSMANLI VS ILIMBEK AKYLBEK UULU

I’ve spent time watching and covering this season of TUF alongside my buddy and colleague Zain Bando. Osmanli was practically the star of the show for the bantamweights. Any time he fought, there was a lot of focus on him. Dana White and coach Michael Bisping talked him up as being one of the best all-around athletes on the show, and he proved it in his bouts. Merab Dvalishvili and Bisping even said Osmanli had a little Conor McGregor in him, and if you look at him during this season, it’s not hard to see.

Uulu is highly motivated, however, after already defeating Sean Mora in a grudge match and having confrontations with Osmanli in the final episode. Osmanli has some solid punching, and even more solid grappling work. But if Osmanli gets the better of Uulu, we could see some output like we saw when Osmanli landed the first buggy choke in UFC/TUF/DWCS history. Uulu should look to close the distance and fight in close.

The first grappling exchange could be something to watch out for here.

BET: Osmanli -3.5 (DraftKings & Caesars: -170)