Many feel the way that you have to bet on UFC is parlaying heavy favorites together, but underdogs win approximately 35% of the time in the world’s largest MMA promotion. Don’t be afraid to hunt for plus money.

Years ago, I developed a predictive model that uses in-fight stats and fighter attributes to simulate UFC fight outcomes — so long as the combatants had at least 30 completed octagon minutes or 5 total fights. I found that, in the UFC, moneyline favorites are usually overvalued.

How is that possible? Well, in a fight environment with as many variables per second as MMA, it’s hard to see the difference between -150 and -350 in real time. Great bets can lose. Terrible bets can win by lucky measures.

Every week, I’m going to give you my favorite underdog bet of the week. They’ll usually be showing value in my model, and I’ll explain their path to victory.

Here’s my favorite bit of plus money available for UFC 331: Van vs. Pantoja 2

Note: All fight odds come via Polymarket, the official prediction market of UFC.

Swaim’s Underdog of the Week: Brunno Ferreira (+160)

Model Odds: +110

Model’s Favorite Exact Outcome and Implied Odds: Decision (+440)

In one of the most strange lines of a loaded card in Los Angeles, bettors (or traders) are pushing Edmen Shahbazyan toward a two-to-one favorite in a battle of extremely similar fighters. I don’t get it.

Shahbazyan is the more polished fighter from Xtreme Couture, one of the best MMA gyms in the world under head coach Eric Nicksick. In this same division, his teammate, Sean Strickland, has the belt. But, that’s also been the case for years as “The Golden Boy” has struggled to make his mark at middleweight.

Shahbazyan’s 9-6 record is far from perfect, and his +0.19 striking success rate (SSR) is fairly flat. When fresh, the striker is long, fast, and dangerous. But he’s proven to have an expiration date in fights, most recently verified in a second-round loss to Gerald Meerschaert. “GM3” has gone on a five-fight losing skid since beating Shahbazyan.

Anytime the middleweight exerts himself early, it ends poorly. He’s gone to a cautious decision in two of his last three fights knowing this. All Brunno Ferreira might have to do here is force action and survive long enough to watch Shahbazyan fade.

“The Hulk” has certainly been good at that. He’s got a 1.63% knockdown rate, and 7 of his 11 UFC-affiliated appearances, including the Contender Series, ended in Round 1. Twice a victim in those scenarios, that’s probably the most dangerous round for him.

But, in deeper waters, Ferreira has proven his Brazilian jiu-jitsu black belt is legitimate with submissions in two of his last five fights. A longer fight? Well, he outlasted former title challenger Marvin Vettori in one of those, too. If this isn’t a quick, clean kickboxing match, Ferreira seems to have a great chance.

Anecdotally, the Brazilian has struggled at times with discipline and coming to fight week in the best possible conditioning. On a two-fight losing skid, he looked in outstanding shape at weigh-ins. I typically don’t factor in that hard-to-quantify noise, but I think it matters greatly for Ferreira, given his history and his entering a fight like this, where endurance could be a key factor.

The model’s verdict agrees with my assessment. It feels like Shahbazyan’s technique is really expensive when, at the end of the day, these are both powerful strikers with inconsistent defense, submission danger, and questionable gas tanks. I’ve got Edmen a slight favorite (52.5%), but it’s otherwise saying to flip a coin.

If this fight extends to Round 2, Ferreira should be in an excellent position to pull the upset.