The Wolves lowered their floor to raise their ceiling. Will it work?
Normally, when a sportsbook, like FanDuel, sets a regular season win total, the team ends up right around that range. For instance, the Charlotte Hornets over/under win total is set at 37.5. Given that they are projected to be right on the fringes of the playoff/play-in picture in the Eastern Conference, it seems pretty likely that they will be in that 35-40 win ballpark.
However, the Minnesota Timberwolves, who the Hornets traded with this offseason, are an expectation to the rule. As of right now, their win line is set at 48.5. But for the Timberwolves, being just a high 40-win team seems too simple to properly explain the dynamics of this group they just reconfigured.
For them, the 2026-27 campaign is almost surely going to be boom-or-bust.
The Timberwolves’ big offseason changes
The Timberwolves are fresh off their most successful three-year run in franchise history. They’ve won 154 regular season games (tied for fifth with the New York Knicks), five playoff series, and made it to two Western Conference Finals.
Yet, despite all that winning, the Timberwolves spent the offseason trading away two of the key figures from this era: Julius Randle and Naz Reid. In their place, they added LaMelo Ball and Jonathan Kuminga, while also re-signing Ayo Dosunmu.
Minnesota built an identity around their fearsome foursome in the frontcourt (Rudy Gobert, Jaden McDaniels, Reid, and Randle/Karl-Anthony Towns). One predicated around defense and physicality.
Their offense was piggybacked by the ethereal talent that is Anthony Edwards and volume 3-point shooting. However, bearing the entire brunt of the team’s creation has proven to be too daunting of a task for Edwards (6th percentile assist to usage rate, per Cleaning the Glass). Nothing against Edwards, he’s just better suited in an on-ball/off-ball hybrid role – like many of the great slashers that came before him.
In the regular season and early rounds of the playoffs, Randle made for a credible release valve, but he’s too inefficient and inconsistent to fulfill this duty against the highest levels of competition (his 2025 postseason series breakdown captures this pretty well).
The Timberwolves tried to remedy this issue by starting guys like Mike Conley Jr. and Bones Hyland next to Edwards in the backcourt, but neither of them is a strong enough offensive force to make up for the tradeoffs that come with their defense. Meanwhile, Dosunmu is more of a bench spark plug than an answer to their problems.
So, the Timberwolves moved Randle and Reid to clear up room for Ball. There’s an argument that Ball’s defense is even more concerning than the elder Conley, who had least had his veteran guile to fallback on. But Ball is the caliber of offensive player who is worth the defensive headache. Last season, Ball ranked tenth in the entire league in Offensive Estimated Plus-Minus (per Dunks & Threes). The Hornets were in the 98th percentile in offensive rating when he was on the floor. And Ball’s calling card (his passing) is the perfect shield for Edwards’ greatest shortcoming.
After being brought in at the trade deadline, Dosunmu was excellent for the Timberwolves, averaging 14.4 points, 3.5 assists, and 1 steals per game on 61.9% true shooting in 24 games. His blend of speed and downhill pressure proved to be too much for the Denver Nuggets in the first round (he averaged 21.8 PPG in that series). Bringing him back was the right call, and he’ll surely be a frontrunner for Sixth Man of the Year.
Kuminga has his problems (more on this in a bit), but at an AAV of $6.2 million and with a player option in Year Two, it’s a shot you have to take. If he (finally) lives up to his potential, Kuminga has a chance to be a more well-rounded forward than Randle and Reid ever were (both of whom were imperfect defensive players).
Why are the Timberwolves so volatile?
The Timberwolves effectively raised their ceiling this offseason. A starting lineup of Ball, Edwards, McDaniels, Kuminga, and Gobert has more two-way upside than any unit they’ve fielded in this iteration of the team (and, considering how bad things have been for this organization, maybe ever). The thing is, by doing this, they also lowered their floor.
For all their faults, Randle and Reid were two guys the Timberwolves knew they could count on. They also served as credible backup fives when Gobert was resting or injured. Now, Joan Beringer, a second year big who only played 314 total minutes as a rookie, is the next man up. His tools are undeniable, but we’ve also yet to see them put to use in meaningful NBA action.
On paper, Ball is the perfect player to pair with Edwards, McDaniels, and Gobert. I also think that the narratives about him being an empty-calorie player are vastly overblown (I had him ranked as my 14th best player in 2025-26). But, at the end of the day, there is no disputing that Ball wasn’t able to lead the Hornets to a single playoff berth in his six years with the team. At the very least, he’s unproven and bound to endure some lumps in the postseason.
Kuminga has the brawn and athleticism to be the Timberwolves’ version of Aaron Gordon, but his camp seems to think he’s closer to Giannis Antetokounmpo, and, as a result, he’s spent the last two summers looking for a contract that hasn’t come.
The depth behind the team’s six best players (the five projected starters and Dosunmu) is pretty murky, too. We’ve mentioned the uncertainty of having Beringer as your only other playable big man. Other than that, you Terrence Shannon Jr., Donte DiVincenzo (who may miss the entire season), Trey Lyles, Jaylen Clark, Isaiah Evans, and Hyland – a hodgepodge of unproven talents/players with notable limitations. Shannon is the most promising member of this bunch, and a true breakout from him would give the team some Kuminga insurance if he ultimately flames out.
Minnesota has taken a formula that they know works well and replaced it with pieces that should make them way better, but also come with some serious question marks. They are betting that Ball and Kuminga can impact winning in a way they never have, hoping that McDaniels and Gobert can stay healthy enough to anchor their perennial top ten defensive unit, and praying that all of it comes together in time for them to battle with the two goliaths that sit at the top of the conference (the Oklahoma City Thunder and San Antonio Spurs).
In a world where sports front offices are playing it safe to prolong their employment and keep those direct deposits flowing through, the Timberwolves are going for it in every sense of the word. They know the risks. If this fails, Edwards – the team’s best talent since Kevin Garnett – could ask to play elsewhere. But they also see the potential reward – a chance to finally get over the hump.