The Houston Texans came into the 2026 season as a dark-horse Super Bowl contender for most pundits. After all, DeMeco Ryans and company had reached the Divisional Round in each of the last three seasons, falling to superior contenders all three times.
But 2026 was supposed to be different. The Texans returned most of what was one of the top defenses in football a season ago, including Defensive Player of the Year candidate Will Anderson Jr. C.J. Stroud, despite a tough few games in the playoffs, is still an ascending quarterback. The Texans also added David Montgomery to help fix their running game and traded for Kayshon Boutte to give Stroud another downfield weapon.
So far, things have not gone according to plan. The defense faltered in the second half of losses to the Buffalo Bills and the Dallas Cowboys, and the offense came up short in a defeat against the Cincinnati Bengals and the Indianapolis Colts on the way to an 0-4 start.
Houston is no stranger to digging itself out of a hole. Ryans and company bounced back after an 0-3 start to make the playoffs a year ago, and they got off on the right foot on this comeback attempt with a 26-3 win over the Tennessee Titans in Week 5.
There are still reasons to be optimistic about this Texans team, but Week 6 presents a crucial challenge. The Texans are headed overseas to London to take on the 4-1 Jacksonville Jaguars, who have looked every bit like a Super Bowl contender with Trevor Lawrence playing like an MVP candidate. But if the Texans can topple the Jags on Sunday, they are right back in the mix.
So why should Houston fans feel optimistic heading into this game, and where are they vulnerable against the high-powered Jaguars offense?
C.J. Stroud is quietly earning his money while carrying a massive burden
C.J. Stroud came into last offseason coming off of a four-interception loss in the playoffs against the New England Patriots, and buzz about his future in Houston only got louder when the two sides failed to come to an agreement on a new contract extension this summer. Stroud bet on himself, while the Texans wanted to see more out of the former No. 2 overall pick before committing to him long-term.
So far in 2026, Stroud is playing the best football of his career. He has been nothing short of sensational through five games, throwing for 1,402 yards and six touchdowns with no interceptions. The Ohio State product is humming through progressions and looks incredibly comfortable working out of both clean and muddy pockets, perhaps more so than any year since he was a rookie.
The advanced numbers paint an even friendlier picture of what Stroud has done so far this year. He leads the NFL with 11 big-time throws according to PFF. His two turnover-worthy plays are the second-least among all quarterbacks with five starts this year, behind only Jared Goff.
Stroud's combination of aggressiveness and efficiency is very rare and has made this Texans passing attack one of the most lethal in the entire NFL. He boasts the second-highest average depth of target (10.6 yards, trails only Lamar Jackson) in the NFL among full-time starters, and he does that while also holding the second-best completion percentage over expected in the NFL, also trailing Jackson.
What makes Stroud's hot start even more impressive is that he is doing it essentially all by himself, with the help of some of his wide receivers.
Houston's run game has been atrocious. It ranks bottom-10 in EPA per rush, with the fourth-lowest rushing success rate and the fourth-lowest stuff rate in the NFL so far this season. Its 3.4 yards per rush ranks 30th in the NFL. If you narrow it down to only first downs, Houston's 26.7% rushing success rate is the third-worst mark in football, per Next Gen Stats.
That leaves Stroud hung out to dry in a lot of obvious passing downs, but he has still been hyper-efficient all season long.
Don't expect that to change on Sunday against a Jaguars defense that ranks in the top 10 in the league in EPA per rush allowed. Jacksonville has also only allowed five runs of 10 or more yards this season, so the chunk runs are going to be few and far between for the Texans.
Jacksonville's secondary has been gettable at points this season, especially when staying away from Travis Hunter. Even without a running game, Stroud and Nico Collins should be able to get after this Jags defense.
Can Texans defense finally find a groove?
The fascinating part of this game comes on the other side of the ball. The Texans defense has shown flashes of its expected greatness this season, but it has been few and far between especially against some of the better quarterbacks on the schedule. Both Dak Prescott and Josh Allen have not hesitated to push the ball down the field and challenge this Houston secondary, which has exposed a potential weakness in Ryans' unit.
Sure, Will Anderson Jr. is still the clear favorite for Defensive Player of the Year at the moment, and the Texans still have talent at all three levels, but it just hasn't quite come together this season. A shoulder injury to do-it-all nickel Jalen Pitre, which will keep him out for this game, won't help matters.
The good news is that this Texans defense still looks fine on paper, it's just not truly elite like expected. Houston is still top 10 in both EPA per play and EPA per rush allowed.
Liam Coen is known for having one of the most well-designed running games in all of football, but the Jags have just been above-average in that area so far this season.
Article Continues BelowThe real battle will come when Houston has to slow down this Jacksonville passing attack. Similar to Stroud, Trevor Lawrence is playing some of the best football of his career for the 4-1 Jaguars. The Jags quarterback is sixth in the NFL in EPA per dropback this season and has 10 touchdowns to just three interceptions.
But the way that Lawrence attacks down the field is what really should have the Texans worried. On passes of 10 or more air yards in Week 1, Josh Allen finished 11-of-16 with 286 yards and two touchdowns against this Texans defense. In Week 4, Prescott finished 7-of-10 with 159 yards and a touchdown.
Lawrence has been stellar when targeting beyond 10 yards this season. On those throws, the former No. 1 overall pick is 34-of-57 with 623 yards and seven touchdowns with two interceptions. His EPA per dropback of +0.73 on those plays is sixth-best in the NFL, and his budding connection with Parker Washington is one of the best in the league. Who wins that battle on Sunday could very well decide the winner.
Why Texans fans should be optimistic moving forward
The Texans may very well lose this game and drop to 1-5 on the season, which would be a massive hole to dig out of. It would be almost unheard of for anybody to come back and make the playoffs from a 1-5 hole, especially when this one would mean that the Jags would be on top of the division at 5-1.
But there should still be optimism for this Texans team moving forward after this game, win or lose. Stroud looks like one of the best quarterbacks in the league, and he has a number of quality pass-catchers to throw to behind Nico Collins, who has turned into a true No. 1 wideout. The offensive line, while not incredible, has been serviceable at the very least, and while the running game has been bad and just lost David Montgomery, a good passing game goes a long way.
Defensively, it's just hard not to see some positive regression here. Through five weeks, the Texans will have played Josh Allen, Joe Burrow, Dak Prescott, and Trevor Lawrence. That's four of the seven or eight best quarterbacks in the NFL at the moment, so easier tasks are ahead for a defense that's still grading out pretty well. Anderson can wreck any game, Pitre will get healthy and Derek Stingley Jr. and Kamari Lassiter still form one of the best cornerback duos in football.
The schedule for the Texans after this game in London is as follows: Giants, bye, at Chargers, at Browns, Colts. Even with a loss on Sunday, it's easy to see a world where Houston is 5-5 heading into a Week 12 clash with the Baltimore Ravens. If Houston can get to that point, DeMeco Ryans and company are right in the middle of the playoff race.