UFC Vegas 123: Moicano vs. Nolan kicks off with Tainara Lisboa against unbeaten newcomer Lucia Szabova in the women’s flyweight division. Check out our UFC Vegas 123 odds series for our Lisboa-Szabova prediction and pick.
Tainara Lisboa (7-4) seeks to halt consecutive defeats after Luana Santos submitted her with an Americana and Melissa Croden stopped her with strikes. Those setbacks followed victories over Jessica-Rose Clark and Ravena Oliveira, leaving the experienced striker rebuilding confidence as she comes into her fight this weekend against Lucia Szabova.
Lucia Szabova (12-0) arrives after defeating Lucie Pudilova by unanimous decision across five rounds in August. Earlier this year, she stopped Leidiane Fernandes in the third round to add Oktagon's flyweight championship, strengthening an already impressive unbeaten professional résumé as she comes into her fight this weekend against Tainara Lisboa.
UFC Vegas 123 odds, courtesy of DraftKings
UFC Vegas 123 Odds: Tainara Lisboa vs. Lucia Szabova
Tainara Lisboa: +500
Lucia Szabova: -700
Over 2.5 rounds: +120
Under 2.5 rounds: -154
Watch sports LIVE with fuboTV (free trial)Why Tainara Lisboa Will Win
Tainara Lisboa can pull the upset by keeping Szabova at kicking range and making the newcomer defend before establishing forward pressure. Her best approach combines measured low kicks, straight punches, and disciplined exits that prevent ordinary exchanges from becoming sustained clinch battles.
Lisboa's Muay Thai background gives her a credible striking foundation, even though her recent UFC results have exposed important defensive weaknesses. She needs to make that experience count through timing and target selection rather than assuming a prolonged exchange automatically favors her skills.
The underdog should attack the body when Szabova advances, forcing the favorite to consider a cost before repeatedly closing the distance. Finishing combinations with movement would also make it harder for Szabova to connect her hands and begin building grappling sequences.
If taken down, Lisboa must prioritize frames and immediate positional recovery rather than accepting pressure while waiting for an ideal submission opening. Her upset chances improve substantially if she can repeatedly return to standing without allowing the favorite to establish dominant control.
Lisboa's winning scenario requires patience, efficient striking, and enough defensive success to make Szabova fight at an uncomfortable distance for stretches. Expect a decision-based upset only if the veteran consistently denies prolonged grappling and lands the more effective shots between attempted entries.
Why Lucia Szabova Will Win
Lucia Szabova can win by making Lisboa defend a layered offense rather than allowing the Brazilian to establish comfortable kickboxing distance. She should pressure behind combinations, attack the body, and connect clinches whenever Lisboa becomes stationary after completing her own offense.
Szabova's recent victories over Leidiane Fernandes and Lucie Pudilova demonstrate success in both a finishing performance and a five-round decision. That range is useful here because she can pursue pressure without needing to force every opening into an immediate fight-ending exchange.
The favorite should make the grappling positional, emphasizing balance and effective strikes before advancing toward mount or pursuing the opponent's back. Lisboa becomes more vulnerable if she must defend damage and improve position simultaneously rather than concentrating on a single submission threat.
Article Continues BelowLisboa's recent losses to Luana Santos and Melissa Croden illustrate the problems that can develop when opponents maintain productive offensive pressure. Szabova should aim to reproduce that difficulty through consistent phase changes, making it harder for the veteran to anticipate the next attack.
Her winning scenario involves gradually reducing Lisboa's available space, forcing hurried reactions, and exploiting the openings created during defensive attempts to stand. Expect a stoppage once the favorite establishes dominant position and turns sustained pressure into either damaging strikes or a submission.
Final Lisboa-Szabova Prediction & Pick
Lucia Szabova is the selection because her ability to connect striking pressure with positional grappling should make Lisboa defend more than one threat throughout the contest. Lisboa's best opportunities come at distance, but consistently preserving that space becomes difficult when the favorite can turn exchanges into clinches and sustained attacks against the fence.
Szabova should remain patient early, using combinations to draw reactions before committing to the takedowns and positional advances that offer the clearest route toward a finish. The key is making Lisboa work continuously rather than chasing an immediate submission, because accumulated defensive effort can create the rushed turns and exposed limbs that finish fights.
The prediction is Szabova by second-round submission after establishing top position and forcing Lisboa into an increasingly difficult sequence of defensive decisions beneath sustained offensive pressure. The moneyline is extremely expensive, so the winner selection should not automatically be read as an endorsement of laying that price without considering alternative markets carefully.
Final Tainara Lisboa-Lucia Szabova Prediction & Pick: Lucia Szabova (-700), UNDER 2.5 rounds (-154).