Seattle Seahawks vs. Denver Broncos TNF Betting Pick

The Seattle Seahawks and Denver Broncos will face off in a pivotal matchup for both teams.

They’re in nearly identical spots through five games this season. Both teams are 3-2, sitting in second behind an undefeated team in their division.

The Seahawks have taken a small step back on offense this season, but they’re still one of the best in the NFL. They rank eighth in the league in points per play (0.451) through five games.
They’re also averaging a healthy 26.8 points per game in 2026.

The Broncos feature an outstanding defense, allowing only 0.334 points per play. They’ve been even better at home, but we’ve seen them struggle a bit against some of the better offenses.

The real key is the injuries they’re dealing with this week.

Talanoa Hufanga has been ruled out, while Pat Surtain is doubtful to play. Riley Moss is expected to play, but he’s also banged up. Overall, they don’t have anyone who’s going to be able to slow down Jaxon Smith-Njigba.

Denver’s offense is only averaging 0.338 points per play this season, but that number bumps to 0.420 at home. Overall, they’re averaging 19.4 points per game, but they flashed plenty of upside, posting 30 points at home against the Los Angeles Rams.

Seattle boasts a good defense, but they aren’t quite the same on the road. They’re giving up 0.357 points per game outside of Seattle this season, including 33 to Marcus Mariota and the Washington Commanders.

One of the biggest factors for the under is the pace, as both of these teams have been slowing games down this season. Denver is playing faster at home, though, and it isn’t going to be as slow-paced a game as many expect. They should continue to try to push the pace a bit at
altitude, which will also help the offenses.

We’re getting an extremely low total in a spot where both teams have the ability to score points.

Where to Bet: Seattle Seahawks/Denver Broncos over 40.5 points | -110 at BetMGM

2026 NFL Season Betting Record: 6-9