Contender Series 2026 Week 9 continues with a fight between Roque Conceicao and Alexander Chavez in the flyweight division. Check out our Contender Series odds series for our Conceicao-Chavez prediction and pick.
Roque Conceicao (11-3) rebounded with a first-round TKO of Yamato Fujita in March, following October’s first-round TKO loss to Imanol Rodríguez on Contender Series. Those contrasting stoppages highlight his finishing power and defensive risks entering another UFC audition, as he comes into his fight this week against Alexander Chavez Tuesday.
Alexander Chavez (9-0) stopped Francisco Neves with a second-round punch TKO at Inka 55 in April, following December’s unanimous decision over Victor Gabriel at Inka 52. Those victories showcase finishing power and three-round composure while preserving his unbeaten record, as he comes into his fight this week against Roque Conceicao.
Contender Series Week 9 Odds, courtesy of FanDuel.
Contender Series Week 9 Odds: Roque Conceicao-Alexander Chavez Odds
Roque Conceicao: +152
Alexander Chavez: -188
Watch sports LIVE with fuboTV (free trial)Why Roque Conceicao Will Win
Roque Conceicao's clearest argument for victory is his greater professional experience, with an 11-3 record against Alexander Chavez's unbeaten 9-0 mark. Those extra appearances offer a broader competitive background, although experience alone does not establish superiority or mean Chavez will struggle under pressure.
Conceicao's strongest weapon is his finishing offense, with eight knockout victories and two submissions accounting for ten of his eleven wins. That distribution suggests he can threaten a stoppage through different routes rather than depend entirely on winning exchanges with his hands.
His first-round TKO victory over Yamato Fujita provides momentum following his previous Contender Series defeat, making this another opportunity to demonstrate meaningful improvement. The lesson should be controlled aggression: establish clean offense without abandoning defensive positioning simply because an early finish could impress the matchmakers.
Against Chavez, I would favor a patient approach that targets the body, disrupts forward movement, and creates openings upstairs as exchanges develop. Those are tactical priorities rather than proven advantages, particularly against an unbeaten opponent who has demonstrated both finishing ability and decision-winning composure.
The most realistic winning scenario is Conceicao building pressure gradually, making Chavez defend repeatedly, and capitalizing once his reactions become predictable. A second-round TKO is my pick, with caution.
Why Alexander Chavez Will Win
Article Continues BelowAlexander Chavez has a persuasive case for victory because his undefeated 9-0 record reflects sustained momentum rather than one breakthrough performance. Against Roque Conceicao's 11-3 résumé, the challenge is translating that consistency into disciplined offense against a more experienced opponent on Tuesday.
His strongest weapon is his finishing power, with six knockout or TKO victories complemented by three wins on the scorecards. That balance matters because Chávez does not need an immediate stoppage to succeed; he has also demonstrated the ability to complete fights successfully.
The tactical opportunity is to make Conceicao’s aggression work against him, using measured pressure to encourage exchanges without rushing into dangerous counters. Chavez should prioritize compact combinations, balanced positioning, and clean exits rather than treating an unbeaten record as permission to trade recklessly.
Conceicao remains dangerous, and his finishing résumé means Chavez cannot assume that greater momentum automatically translates into a technical advantage. However, forcing the Brazilian to defend repeatedly could create opportunities for follow-up offense, particularly if Chavez maintains composure when the first attack misses.
His most realistic route is a controlled striking performance that builds pressure over time and creates a stoppage opportunity without sacrificing defense. I favor Chavez by second-round TKO, though a competitive decision remains plausible.
Final Roque Conceicao-Alexander Chavez Prediction & Pick
Alexander Chavez is my pick to defeat Roque Conceicao by second-round TKO, although this matchup offers genuine finishing danger on both sides. Chavez enters unbeaten at 9-0 with six knockout victories, while Conceicao brings an 11-3 record and experience from a previous Contender Series appearance.
Expect competitive striking exchanges early, with Conceicao's kickboxing providing a meaningful test of Chávez’s timing and defensive discipline. Rather than chase a quick finish, Chavez should apply measured pressure and make the Brazilian work through repeated attacks.
Conceicao's previous knockout defeat does not guarantee another stoppage, especially after he returned to the win column in Japan. His clearest opportunity is catching Chavez during an overeager entry or disrupting his rhythm before sustained pressure develops.
Ultimately, I favor Chavez to maintain his balance, avoid prolonged trading, and capitalize when Conceicao leaves openings between attacks. The prediction is Chavez by TKO after a closely contested opening round.
Final Roque Conceicao-Alexander Chavez Prediction & Pick: Alexander Chavez (-188)