The New England Patriots (5-2) and Green Bay Packers (5-3) set us up with one of the best matchups of the Sunday schedule. Green Bay is 4-1 in the last five, and Jordan Love is playing like an MVP candidate with 10 touchdowns and four interceptions in that five-game span, whereas Drake Maye and the Patriots are 4-1 in the same span with 14 touchdowns to two picks.
New England’s defense will be put to the test this week after facing the Dolphins on the road last week (24-19). New England’s defense ranks ninth in points per game allowed (20.3) and 11th in third-down defense (38.5%). The Patriots’ last three wins have come over the Dolphins, Jets, and Raiders, and they only have two wins against teams with a winning record (BUF, PIT). This game smells like one that could come down to the final possession. One area New England has struggled in is the turnover margin. New England is a -0.9 team turnover margin per game, ranking tied for second-worst with the Chargers, ahead of only the Colts (-1.4). Maye did not throw a pick last week in Miami, but New England fumbled three times and three more at home versus the Jets a few weeks ago.
Green Bay’s defense looks like it’s found something with Jonathan Gannon lately. The Packers have held their last five opponents to 20 or fewer points per game and allowed 14.6 points per game in that span. Green Bay’s offense has been reliant on Jordan Love more than ever. He’s thrown the ball 40-plus times in three straight games and five out of eight on the year. The running game is starting to come around with Josh Jacobs back, but Jacobs hasn’t alleviated the pressure from Love yet. Jacobs had 36 and 39 rushing yards on 11 and 21 carries. He played on a short week, but was impactful in the pass game with 11 catches on 13 targets for 68 yards and two touchdowns. Jacobs already has three scores, so he’s making the biggest impact in the red zone. New England allows 3.0 red zone trips per game (11th) and a 54.1% touchdown-allowed rate in the red zone (12th), compared to Carolina and Detroit, who both rank in the bottom five in those categories. We could see both offenses stall out in the red zone.
Let’s dive into the numbers and see if we can’t find an additional sweat or two.
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Game details and how to watch Packers vs Patriots
· Date: Sunday, November 8, 2026
· Time: 4:25 PM ET
· Site: Gillette Stadium
· City: Foxborough, MA
· TV/Streaming: Fox
NBC Sports is your home for all the latest updates on this matchup, featuring live odds, player news, expert analysis, and predictions.
Latest Game Odds for Packers at Patriots
The latest odds courtesy of DraftKings:
· Money line: Green Bay Packers (-170), New England Patriots (+142)
· Spread: Patriots -3 (-115)
· Total: 46.5
The look ahead spread was Patriots -1.5 and we’ve seen movement in favor of the home team.
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Expert picks & predictions for Packers vs Patriots
Vaughn Dalzell (@VmoneySports) likes the Packers +3 and leans the Under:
“The Packers’ defense has been on fire over the past five games. Green Bay has allowed 14, 7, 13, 20, and 19 points over that span and has a 4-1 record. Jordan Love has been outstanding, and getting Josh Jacobs back is a plus. The two injuries to their C and RG are worrisome once again, but the Patriots have offensive issues of their own. A.J. Brown and Hunter Henry are questionable, and TreVeyon Henderson missed last week. New England’s receiver room is thin, and I question if they can make enough big plays to cover by more than a field goal. I lean the Under, both teams rank top 10 in PPG allowed, but like Green Bay more given the state of New England offense, so I lean the +3.”
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Packers vs Patriots betting trends and stats
Packers betting trends
- Green Bay is 5-3 ATS
- Green Bay is 6-2 to the Under, ranking third-best
- Green Bay is 2-2 ATS on the road
- Green Bay is 3-1 to the Under on the road, tied for fifth-best
- Green Bay is 3-1 ATS as an underdog, ranking sixth-best
- Green Bay is 22-11 ATS as a road underdog with LaFleur, ranking fourth-best since 2019
- Green Bay is an NFL-best 29-14 ATS as a underdog since 2019
- Green Bay ranks second since 2019 with a 22-21 ML record as an underdog
- Green Bay I 14-18 on the ML since 2019 as a road underdog, ranking eighth-best
Patriots betting trends
- New England is 3-4-1 ATS and 5-3 to the Over
- New England is 2-1 ATS at home and 2-1 to the Over
- New England is 2-2 ATS as a favorite and 2-1 ATS as a home favorite
- New England is 3-1 to the Over as a favorite and 2-1 to the Over as a home favorite
- New England is 8-4 to the Over as a home favorite since 2025
- New England is 11-7 to the Over as a favorite since 2025
- New England is 8-3-1 ATS as home favorite since 2025, ranking third-best
- New England is 11-6-1 ATS as a favorite since 2025, ranking sixth-best
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Quarterback matchup for Packers vs Patriots
· New England: Drake Maye – Drake Maye threw the fewest passes of the season (20) against the Dolphins last week but completed 16 of those for 80%, 199 yards, and two touchdowns. Maye added a rushing score too. Even without a bunch of his best weapons on offense, Maye was able to wrangle the Dolphins coming off their first win of the season. This matchup will be much tougher if Brown, Henderson, or Henry can’t go. The Pats are thin at wide receiver, and the Packers defense has been playing well. Green Bay runs the eighth-most zone coverage and seventh-fewest man. Maye is 14th in passer rating and 29th in completion percentage (50%) against man coverage, versus 19th in passer rating against zone with a 73% completion percentage, ranking third-best.
· Green Bay: Jordan Love – Jordan Love has thrown the ball at least 41 times in the past three games and 274 or more in four straight. Love is on a heater as the Packers’ rushing attack has been a bottom-five unit in the NFL. Luckily, with Josh Jacobs back, there has been an improvement, but Love has still had to throw a ton. This matchup will be interesting since New England runs the third-most man coverage (29%). Love has a 59.1% completion percentage against man (17th) compared to 60.1% versus zone (32nd). He has the 13th-best passer rating versus man and the 12th-ranked catchable ball rate. All of his zone numbers are ranked outside the 20th, so this could be another positive matchup, especially if Watson is a go.
Packers vs Patriots Injury Update
Packers injuries
- WR Christian Watson (ribs) is questionable
- C Sean Rhyan (ankle) is questionable
- RG Travis Glover (knee) is questionable
- LB Zaire Franklin (shin) is questionable
Patriots injuries
- WR A.J. Brown (knee) is questionable
- WR Romeo Doubs (shoulder) is on IR
- WR Mack Hollins (calf) is on IR
- TE Hunter Henry (foot) is questionable
- LB Gabe Jacas (knee) is questionable
- LB Harold Landry III (knee) is out
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