Could the Buckeyes go 8-4? Yes.
Ohio State hasn’t finished lower than seventh in the College Football Playoff rankings since the rankings’ creation in 2014. You could’ve been forgiven for assuming that it would’ve taken an act of the football gods for the Buckeyes to ever miss the 12-team format. Yet because the world has a sense of humor, Ohio State is now nothing more than a tossup to make the playoff this year, likely the last season before the field expands to an outrageous 24 teams.
The situation has escalated more quickly than USC’s freshman tight end Mark Bowman did on Saturday night, when he hurdled Buckeye safety Jaylen McClain en route to a 70-yard completion. Ohio State’s second loss may not have eliminated their room for error, because parity in the Big Ten and SEC could well get a three-loss team (or two) into the field. But any team that loses a third game surrenders control of its own destiny, and the Buckeyes still have four contests left against flawed but tricky opponents. With a backup QB set to remain on the field indefinitely, danger lurks all over. A once-unthinkable 8-4 season is not out of the question for a team that has its usual national championship aspirations.
How did we get here? The injury to QB Julian Sayin was the big catalyst, of course. It’s hard to stock quality QB depth in the transfer portal era, even if you’re Ohio State and have a $50 million roster. But the Buckeyes’ problems run deeper than that. At the end of September, this looked, to me, like the most reliably elite team in the country. But that view rested on my belief that Ohio State would work out some kinks as the calendar flipped from September into October. Not only did that not happen, but the Buckeyes now look shockingly weak even in areas that don’t revolve around their injured QB.
What’s wrong? Not the defense, which gave up 30 points to an elite USC offense but has generally held up its end of the bargain. But there’s a lot to quibble with on the other side of the ball.
PROBLEM 1: THE GOOD BACKUP QB HASN’T ARRIVED YET
Ideally, second-year QB Tavien St. Clair would’ve seized Ohio State’s backup gig this season. St. Clair is an aircraft carrier-sized QB, a 6-foot-5, 235-pounder who arrived as a five-star prospect in 2025 and spent the year watching behind Sayin. As recently as the spring, plugged-in Ohio State media members were under the strong impression that St. Clair had earned the No. 2 spot behind Sayin and had a chance to be Ohio State’s next great QB. Clearly, Ryan Day did not share that impression. True freshman Luke Fahey, a slightly less touted four-star, beat out St. Clair to be the first man off the bench. The Buckeyes haven’t even really introduced packages for St. Clair, an interesting thing given his huge size and mobility. The offense faced several short-yardage spots at USC that would’ve called for someone with St. Clair’s profile. It speaks volumes that Day did not decide to play the second-year man in any of them.
Fahey could have a bright future, but he’s pretty clearly not ready to deliver a serious downfield passing game. He completed 10 passes to Jeremiah Smith (for a relatively low 83 yards) and a combined 11 to the rest of his team. He did not add value as a runner and sailed a handful of passes that were nowhere close to open receivers, including at least two would-be touchdowns. A game-preserving two-point conversion attempt failed when Fahey threw the ball from the LA Coliseum onto the 110 freeway.
PROBLEM 2: THE RUNNING GAME STILL HASN’T SHOWN UP
I wrote at the end of September:
Even if you stripped out all games played against Texas, Ohio State would be just 38th in the country in yards per carry through four weeks. But I’m willing to chalk that up to a small sample size and not worry about it much given the existence of the aforementioned best college football player in years.
Smith is still here and somehow only getting better. But I thought Ohio State’s run game would gradually figure out its problems, too. That was how it went in 2024, when the Buckeyes couldn’t scratch out hard yards on the ground until they suddenly could. A team that averaged 3.9 yards per carry in October bumped that up to 4.4 in November and then 4.9 in December and January. By the end of the year, Quinshon Judkins and TreVeyon Henderson were two of the most productive backs in the country. The offense ran for 214 yards on 41 carries in a national title win against an excellent Notre Dame defense.
We just aren’t seeing that kind of growth this year. The Buckeyes are 90th in the nation in yards per carry, 94th if you exclude sacks (which the NCAA still, absurdly, counts as a rushing stat). The run game has only been what you’d call “good” in a couple of Big Ten games, against Illinois and Maryland, and has had very little to offer against the bigger defensive fronts of Texas, Indiana, and Iowa. Even a maligned USC front had a pretty respectable outing against Bo Jackson and company on Saturday night.
Jackson had 121 yards on 21 carries, but explosiveness was limited. It’s been that way all year. Ohio State has had three 20-yard rushes since Week 1, all of them coming, one apiece, in their last three games. In fact, Ohio State’s three 20-yard carries against Power 4 teams are tied for 53rd out of the 67 P4 teams and Notre Dame.
If you’re not getting big plays on the ground, you need to get them through the air. And Ohio State does, thanks to Smith. But non-Jeremiah receivers have just 15 receptions of 20-plus yards all year, a figure that would rank 54th in the power conferences. Smith is never fully stoppable, but on Saturday night, you saw (via the max of two catches by any other Buckeye) what happens when he’s properly keyed on.
PROBLEM 3: THE SCHEDULE IS FULL OF DANGER
The Buckeyes don’t play any great teams the rest of the way, but they play four teams that could drag them into a rock fight. If you get into too many rock fights, you’ll lose some of them:
- Oregon has had a catastrophic season but has kept five of eight opponents to under 4.3 yards per carry (non-sack). The Ducks have a bunch of future NFL players on their defensive line, and they have skill position talent that can scare anyone. That’s probably not a blowout win.
- Northwestern has a rejuvenated Chip Kelly calling plays. The Wildcats have a lousy rush defense, but if Sayin is not playing, you might very well rather have Northwestern’s offense than Ohio State’s if the game becomes a shootout. Those words have never been typed in that order.
- Nebraska has a vicious defensive front. Ohio State won’t run the ball on them, and that game is in Lincoln, where it will be loud. I wouldn’t worry too much about this one, given that Matt Rhule is unlikely to beat a ranked opponent before the sun swallows the Earth. But still!
- Michigan has the best defense in the country. Good luck running the ball here. Ohio State people will have flashbacks to 2024, when a similar Michigan team won in the Horseshoe.
That’s four games in which Ohio State will be the favorite, but no cakewalks. Lose one, and the Buckeyes are praying on Selection Sunday. Lose two, and it’s over. Either would be uncharted waters, and we still have no idea when or if this team will have a capable quarterback behind center again. Look out.