Notre Dame looks to remain undefeated this season, but need to get past North Carolina on Saturday. It is time to continue the NCAA Football odds series with a Notre Dame-North Carolina prediction and pick.
Notre Dame finished September undefeated for the first time under Marcus Freeman. The games have not been overly close either. After dispatching Wisconsin at Lambeau Field, 41-13, they returned home to beat Rice 52-0. The only small struggle of the year would happen in Week 3 against Michigan State. The Irish held a 17-10 lead at the end of the first half. From there, the defense took over, not allowing the Spartans to score in the second half as they went on to win 27-10. Last time out, Notre Dame dominated on the road, beating Purdue 49-10.
Meanwhile, North Carolina is 2-1 on the season. It was an upset of TCU to open the year, as North Carolina won 15-10 in Ireland. They would then have a week off before beating East Tennessee State at home 35-3. The next week, it was a trip to face Clemson. The Tar Heels started strong, taking a 17-6 lead into the halftime break. They held on to the lead into the fourth quarter before Clemson scored with 5:01 left in the game, making it 21-20. On the next drive, North Carolina went for it on a fourth-and-one from their own 45-yard line. Instead of running the ball, they put the game in the hands of Billy Edwards Jr., who missed the pass. The Tar Heels let Clemson score on the next drive, and then threw an interception on their final drive, losing 28-20. They had last week off as they prepare for Notre Dame.
This will be the 24th meeting between the two schools. Notre Dame has won 21 times, while North Carolina has won twice. One of those wins was vacated. Notre Dame has won five straight in the series, while both wins for North Carolina have been at home.
Notre Dame vs. North Carolina Odds
Notre Dame: -21 (-110)
North Carolina: +21 (-110)
Over: 47.5 (-108)
Under: 47.5 (-112)
Watch Notre Dame-North Carolina LIVE with fuboTV (free trial)Notre Dame vs. North Carolina Key Injuries
Notre Dame- WR Quincy Porter (Out), S Tae Johnson (Out), OL Matty Augustine (Out), OL Chris Terek (Out), OL Charles Jagusah (Out), DL Christopher Burgess Jr. (Out), DK Tiki Hola (Out), CB Chaz Smith (Out), OT Owen Streig (Questionable), S Luke Talich (Probable)
North Carolina- TE Jaxxon Warren (Out), WR Keeyum Chapman (Out), DL Viliami Moala (Out), WR C.J. Sadler (Questionable), WR Carnell Warren (Questionable), TE Jordan Washington (Questionable), DL Melkart Abou Jaoude (Questionable)
Notre Dame vs. North Carolina Betting Trends
– Notre Dame is 3-1 against the spread this year, including 1-0 on the road.
Article Continues Below– The under has hit in two of four games for Notre Dame this year. The over has hit both times Notre Dame has not been at home.
– North Carolina is 1-2 against the spread, but 1-1 as an underdog, including winning outright once.
– North Carolina is 0-1 against the spread at home this year.
– The under has hit in two of three games for the Tar Heels this year.
Keys to Notre Dame vs. North Carolina matchup
For Notre Dame, it all starts with CJ Carr. The Irish quarterback has been great this year, completing 67 of 95 passes for 963 yards and nine touchdowns. He has been intercepted just once and sacked twice. While Carr has been protected well this year, protection could be an issue in this one. Charles Jagusah, Matty Augustine, and Chris Terek are all out for this game. While none of them have been starters, they are all solid depth pieces on the offensive line. North Carolina has been solid at getting to the quarterback this year, sacking opponent quarterbacks on 8.82 percent of dropbacks this year, a top-25 mark in FBS. The running game led by Aneyas Williams will help alleviate the pressure, as long as he can find space.
On defense, they have to create pressure in the backfield, without committing to extra safeties in the box or blitzing. Billy Edwards has historically struggled with heavy pressure, but has only thrown one interception this year. Edwards was pressured on that pass, and North Carolina was down. In his career, that is when Edwards has thrown picks. Still, the quarterback has been great at making short underneath throws all year, so dropping safeties into the box could backfire. Further. The North Carolina running game has been solid this year, and overpursuing to get into the backfield to pressure Edwards will also lead to big runs from their solid tandem.
For North Carolina, it starts with the ground game. The Notre Dame defense has been great against both the run and the pass this year, but the ground game will allow North Carolina to control the clock and give an added level of protection for Edward. Benjamin Hall has been solid this year, running the ball 33 times for 215 yards. Meanwhile, Demon June has run the ball just 25 times for 115 yards and four touchdowns. A solid run game will open up the pass. Edwards has been solid, but nothing special this year. He has completed 56.4 percent of his passes for 611 yards and three touchdowns. Still, if the running game can do its job and allow Edwards to play safer passes and manage the game, the offense should find success.
Meanwhile, the defense needs to make Notre Dame one-dimensional. Aneyas Williams has been solid out of the backfield, running for 224 yards and four touchdowns. Nolan James Jr. has run for 197 yards and three scores. Finally, Jonaz Walton has run for 108 yards this year. If North Carolina can force Carr into obvious passing situations, they should be able to create some turnovers and get short fields.
Notre Dame vs. North Carolina Prediction and Pick
The line for this game opened with Notre Dame favored by 24.5 half points, but the line moved after early betting. There will be some issues for the North Carolina offense in this one. Notre Dame is allowing just 53.2 yards per game on the ground. If the Irish can put the Tar Heels in obvious passing situations, they are going to create short fields off either punts or turnovers. The Irish have dominated short field all year. Meanwhile, both teams are expected to be run-heavy in this one. With much of the depth for the Notre Dame offensive line out, they are going to rely on the ground game. This is going to shorten the game significantly. This is going to be a low-scoring affair, and with North Carolina at home, plus the clock running, they should cover.
Final Notre Dame vs. North Carolina Prediction and Pick: North Carolina +21 (-110) and Under 47.5 (-112)