UFC Vegas 123: Moicano vs. Nolan continues with Nick Klein against promotional newcomer Joe Kropschot in the middleweight division. Check out our UFC Vegas 123 odds series for our Klein-Kropschot prediction and pick.
Nick Klein (6-3) has lost both UFC appearances, suffering second-round stoppages against Mansur Abdul-Malik and Andrey Pulyaev in 2025. His earlier Contender Series submission of Heraldo Souza demonstrated dangerous grappling, but defensive improvements are now urgently needed for success as he comes into his fight this weekend against Joe Kropschot.
Joe Kropschot (9-3) earned his UFC opportunity by unanimously outpointing Jonathan Kunneman on Contender Series in August. That victory followed his second-round submission of David Allakhverdiev to capture LFA middleweight gold, extending an impressive run of sustained regional success as he comes into his fight this weekend against Nick Klein.
UFC Vegas 123 odds, courtesy of DraftKings
UFC Vegas 123 Odds: Nick Klein vs. Joe Kropschot
Nick Klein: +250
Joe Kropschot: -310
Over 1.5 rounds: -115
Under 1.5 rounds: -115
Watch sports LIVE with fuboTV (free trial)Why Nick Klein Will Win
Nick Klein can win by making Kropschot defend aggressive wrestling before the newcomer establishes his own preferred rhythm inside the Octagon. His best route is immediate physical pressure, forcing connected exchanges rather than allowing the favorite to comfortably alternate striking and grappling.
Klein's Contender Series submission of Heraldo Souza demonstrated how quickly he can finish when he secures an advantageous grappling position.
That threat matters here because Kropschot's submission reputation does not automatically make him immune to a well-timed takedown and controlled back take.
The underdog must avoid treating early success as permission to abandon position in pursuit of a choke that is not available. Stable top pressure, short effective strikes, and persistent mat returns would make his offense more sustainable than an all-or-nothing submission chase.
On the feet, Klein should keep combinations short and use them primarily to disguise the next entry into physical contact. Remaining at distance for extended periods would increase the chance that Kropschot can target the defensive openings exposed in Klein's losses.
Klein's winning scenario therefore depends on creating momentum early without spending his entire energy reserve trying to force an immediate finish. Expect an upset only if he maintains positional discipline, wins the first grappling battles, and capitalizes when Kropschot attempts to stand.
Why Joe Kropschot Will Win
Joe Kropschot can win by making Klein work through unsuccessful wrestling exchanges before increasing the pressure once the underdog begins slowing. His best approach is patient resistance, forcing repeated attempts while maintaining enough offense to prevent Klein from dictating every transition.
Kropschot's submission victory over David Allakhverdiev and subsequent decision against Jonathan Kunneman demonstrate finishing ability alongside the capacity to complete rounds. That combination is useful here because he should not need to force a scramble simply to prove he can grapple with Klein.
The favorite should use compact punches to draw reactions, then attack whichever phase Klein becomes least prepared to defend successfully. If Klein begins ducking underneath every combination, front-headlock control and short strikes could make those familiar entries increasingly costly.
Article Continues BelowKropschot also needs to respect the early submission threat, particularly when standing from bottom or turning away during a scramble. Keeping his hands available and his neck protected would reduce Klein's best opportunities without requiring the newcomer to fight passively.
His winning scenario involves surviving the first surge, making Klein's pressure less efficient, and taking over as defensive reactions deteriorate. Expect a submission opportunity after damaging exchanges force Klein to turn away or attempt an increasingly desperate escape from underneath.
Final Klein-Kropschot Prediction & Pick
Joe Kropschot receives the selection because his ability to remain effective beyond the opening scramble should matter against a wrestler whose early pressure can be dangerous. Klein has a real submission route, but sustaining that threat requires positional discipline and defensive responsibility when his first attempt does not immediately produce the finish.
Kropschot should avoid volunteering for unnecessary chaos, use compact strikes to draw predictable reactions, and make Klein work repeatedly before committing heavily to his own grappling. Once Klein begins entering without the same balance, the favorite can use front-headlock pressure or a reversal to create the superior positions needed for effective offense.
The prediction is Kropschot by submission in the opening half of round two, with Klein's attempts to escape pressure creating the decisive opportunity to take his back. The under is less secure than the winner selection because both fighters could spend substantial time contesting position, but the finishing opportunities should arrive relatively early.
Final Nick Klein-Joe Kropschot Prediction & Pick: Joe Kropschot (-310), UNDER 1.5 rounds (-115).