David Fucillo provides NFL Survivor pool tips in Week 9, offering up safe, value, and trap picks.
Anybody still here? We had fewer upsets last week, but it’s still been tough sledding in Survivor pools. The Cardinals win over the Cowboys was the big surprise, although we’re getting to a point where I would hope most folks are staying away from Dallas in this kind of pool. The Broncos stunned the Chiefs late and the Bucs rolled the Falcons at home, but neither played a big impact in Survivor pools.
I’m back with my Week 9 Survivor picks ahead of Jaguars-Ravens on Thursday Night Football. Survivor involves picking one team each week to win. If they win you advance, if they lose you’re out in most cases. I’m in one pool with four entries, but it’s also a double-elimination pool. I’ve lost three of my entries, with the Texans taking me down last week. I’m down to one entry that already has one strike, so we’re coming down to the wire.
Below I’ve got a look at the safest choices, best value picks, and then trap picks. I’ll post my own picks at the end. I’ll update on Sunday once I lock in my three picks for the weekend.
I’ve included odds for the favorite in each game, courtesy of FanDuel.
Safest picks
49ers (-9.5) over Raiders
Jaguars (-10.5) over Ravens
Chiefs (-9.5) over Jets
The 49ers are coming off a bye and getting healthy. Given the struggles of the Raiders defense, the 49ers offense should be able to do some serious damage at home.
Jaguars-Ravens is a Thursday game, and plenty of folks might prefer to skip on that given the short week can lead to some wild ones. However, the Ravens are down to their third string QB and are trading for Jacoby Brissett after this game. They’re in serious trouble.
I know the Chiefs are coming off a loss and the Jets hung with the Raiders, but I just don’t see any way this is close.
Best value picks
Bears (-6.5) over Buccaneers
Seahawks (-8.5) over Cardinals
The Bucs have their QB back and managed a critical win in the rain over the Falcons last week. And yet, the Bears are rolling right now. Jeffery Simmons was a huge addition to that defense and Caleb Williams is playing solid ball.
Divisional games are generally best avoided, but the Cardinals have effectively called it quits for the season. They placed running back Jeremiyah Love on IR and are expected to trade Jacoby Brissett to the Ravens sometime in the next couple days. Gardner Minshew can occasionally be dangerous, but I don’t think he can get it done against the Seahawks defense. Drew Lock is starting in place of an injured Sam Darnold, but that’s not really a downgrade given how Darnold has played this season.
Trap pick
Lions (-7) over Dolphins
Seahawks (-8.5) over Cardinals
I think the Lions handle their business against the Dolphins, but traveling to Miami and coming off an emotional win over the Vikings, this is a tough spot for them.
If you think Lock is a downgrade and Minshew Magic is a thing, I could see why this might be a trap game. There’s still value in it, but it’s a tough call.
My picks this week
I’m rolling with the Bears this week. I could use the Jaguars or Seahawks potentially, but I’m going to save those two for the time-being.