Week 1 gave us an avalanche of data to sort through as we prepare for Week 2 of the season. These are the players I am highest and lowest on at every position heading into SundayâÂÂs games.
ⶠQuarterback
Start: Baker Mayfield, Bucs
Mayfield and the Bucs flopped in Week 1, largely because of his three lost fumbles. Looking under the hood, all the advanced data was positive. He was seventh in success rate and third in CPOE. Mayfield was sixth in EPA per playâ¦on non-turnover plays. Assuming he doesnâÂÂt lose three fumbles again this week, Mayfield should return to form against a Browns defense that just got shredded by the Jags.
Start: Tyler Shough, Saints
Shough didnâÂÂt look particularly great in the Saintsâ shootout loss to the Lions, but he was solid and the team is playing fantasy-friendly football. Kellen Moore dialed up the fastest offense in the NFL in Week 1 by both total pace and pace in neutral situations. The Saints were also fifth in pass rate over expected. Shough gets a tough matchup against the Ravens this week and I expect him to have some ugly moments like he did versus the Lions. However, the combo of speed and pass-first play-calling should keep him near the top of the QB2 mix.
Sit: Malik Willis, Dolphins
Vegas has already thrown in the towel on the Dolphins. No teamâÂÂnot the Browns nor the Cooper Rush-led FalconsâÂÂhas a lower implied total than Miami. Vegas has them scoring 15.75 points versus the 49ers on the road. Willis was shockingly close to his Titans form in Week 1. He ranked 25th in EPA per play and 29th in CPOE. He also had a top-five pressure-to-sack rate and the Dolphins only called up one designed run for him. On the other hand, they did lean into the ground game via their running backs with a -5.6% PROE after removing garbage time. Willis is a limited player seeing extremely limited usage. ItâÂÂs hard to bet on that for fantasy purposes.
Sit: Daniel Jones, Colts
The Chiefsâ defense just put Bo Nix in a blender with the fourth-highest pressure rate and the third-highest quick pressure rate. JonesâÂÂs downfall last year came when he stopped being able to handle pressure, which he did extremely well during the first two months of the season. He was dreadful when pressured in Week 1 against Baltimore, averaging less than one yard per attempt while completing 27.3 percent of his passes. With the Chiefs on Sunday and a Week 3 matchup versus Houston on deck, fantasy managers are likely waiting until at least Week 4 to start Jones.
ⶠRunning Back
Start: Chuba Hubbard, Panthers
The Hubbard role was great in Week 1. He accounted for 53 percent of the teamâÂÂs carries with a 58 percent route share. Hubbard also saw the teamâÂÂs only goal line carry and was the primary back for two-minute drill duties. ThatâÂÂs nearly every high-value touch going his way on top of a solid workload between the 20s. Hubbard and the Panthers are now 2.5-point favorites over the Falcons, meaning there should be plenty of opportunities for Dave Canales to establish the run.
Start: Aaron Jones, Vikings
Jordan Mason was placed on injured reserve earlier this week, sidelining him for at least four games. Mason left Week 16 of the 2025 season after four snaps and then missed Week 17. Jones totaled 39 carries and seven targets in those two contests.
The Vikings will likely get DeeJay Dallas and Demond Claiborne more involved this week, but itâÂÂs going to be the Jones show until Mason returns.
Sit: Kenneth Gainwell, Bucs
The thesis with Gainwell was that his 2025 receiving breakout would translate to a high-volume role through the air in Tampa Bay. Not only did that not happen in Week 1, but the Bucs didnâÂÂt even seem interested in trying. Gainwell saw one target and only ran a route on 36 percent of MayfieldâÂÂs dropbacks. He earned just a third of the carries. Gainwell is purely a backup running back until further notice.
Sit: Blake Corum, Rams
Corum was involved plenty in Week 1, but only in ways that donâÂÂt put fantasy points on the table. He ran two routes, was not targeted, and didnâÂÂt see a single one of the teamâÂÂs seven red zone carries. CorumâÂÂs role as a change-of-pace back will be frustrating for people who drafted Kyren Williams, but it isnâÂÂt enough to make him a viable fantasy option on his own.
ⶠWide Receiver
Start: Emeka Egbuka, Bucs
Egbuka had a quiet Week 1 with five catches for 63 yards, but he was set up for a massive day. Mayfield sent 66 percent of the air yards his way. Egbuka also led the team with a 29 percent first-read target share. With a pass rate two percent above their expected mark in Week 1, the Bucs were trying to build a pass-first attack that ran through Egbuka. That should pay off versus the Browns.
Start: DK Metcalf, Steelers
The Steelers played McCarthy ball on Sunday, dialing up a +10.1% PROE.
That led the league and was twice as high as the No. 2 team. This isnâÂÂt new for McCarthy as he has been at the forefront of the passing revolution throughout the past decade. Metcalf, in turn, saw the second-most air yards (171) of any wideout in Week 1. He also led the Steelers with a healthy 26 percent target share.
Sit: Antonio Williams, Commanders
Williams was a revelation for the Commanders, catching four passes for 64 yards and a score in his NFL debut. He did so on just 29 percent of the routes. By routes run, Williams was the teamâÂÂs WR4, and he narrowly edged out Jaylin Lane for that role. It was a promising start, but not one that makes me think he should be in fantasy lineups in Week 2.
Sit: Dontayvion Wicks, Eagles
Nothing about Wicksâ Week 1 usage screams âÂÂstarting fantasy receiver.â He was targeted on 13 percent of his routes and had four targets in total. But, Wicks got home with a 64-yard score, making him look like a solid fantasy option. In a best-case scenario performance, he finished as the WR23. Unless he hits on a long touchdown every week, Wicks simply wonâÂÂt see the ball enough to be a viable FLEX play.
ⶠTight End
Start: Mark Andrews, Ravens
It looks like the Ravens are going to be without Zay Flowers this week because of a hamstring injury. Flowers missed the second half of Week 1 and Andrews was the next man up. He earned a 25 percent target share and was the only Raven to catch more than two passes outside of Flowers himself.
Start: Dalton Schultz, Texans
Per usual, Schultz was simply the Texansâ WR2 last week. He earned a 19 percent target share and his eight targets were good for second on the team. Now Schultz could be in line for even more work with Nico Collins injured and unlikely to play in Week 2.
Sit: Greg Dulcich, Dolphins
In theory, DulcichâÂÂs role should have been solid. He ran 76 percent of the routes and was on the field for 77 percent of the snaps, both of which are more than enough for TE1 numbers under the right circumstances. In practice, Malik Willis converted his dropbacks into targets at the sixth-lowest rate and when he did throw the ball, it was usually deep. Willis recorded the second-highest aDOT of Week 1. ThatâÂÂs a nightmare setup for a tight end.
Sit: Kyle Pitts, Falcons
I am operating under the assumption that Cooper Rush is starting this week. Pitts can be sent to the bench once that is confirmed. Rush was last in EPA per dropback by a mile and second-to-last in completion percent over expected. Over half of his throws went to Bijan Robinson and the Falcons had no interest in letting him drop back, as evidenced by their league-worst -17.3% pass rate over expected.
