The 2026 MLB regular season ended on Sunday. While awards for the MLB season will not be announced until after the postseason, the regular season stat-lines are now final. Today, I will be predicting the award winners for the MVP, Cy Young and Rookie of the Year in both leagues while also sharing my personal selections for each award. In other words, I'll be predicting who I think will actually win the awards while also sharing my personal choices.
Some of the races have clear favorites while others are not quite as obvious. Without further ado, let's take a look at the award races for the 2026 MLB regular season.
AL Rookie of the Year
The American League Rookie of the Year should be far more competitive than it seems to be. Many experts and odds have the Detroit Tigers' Kevin McGonigle cruising to the Rookie of the Year. Parker Messick of the Cleveland Guardians deserves more respect, though.
I've made this argument before, but McGonigle is having a good season for a rookie. Messick, meanwhile, is having a good season for a Cy Young candidate.
McGonigle finished the season with a slash line of .278/.376/.430 to go along with 18 home runs, 28 doubles and 12 stolen bases. His 7.1 WAR leads the league, according to Baseball Reference. Of course, comparing WAR between pitchers and position players is challenging.
Nevertheless, Messick has a strong 6.3 WAR. He recorded a 2.56 ERA, 1.063 WHIP and 193 strikeouts across 32 starts.
McGonigle deserves the recognition he's received, but Messick has emerged as an ace for a Guardians team that won the AL Central.
AL Rookie of the Year prediction: Kevin McGonigle
My AL Rookie of the Year selection: Parker Messick
NL Rookie of the Year
There is a fairly similar situation occurring in the National League with the Rookie of the Year. Sal Stewart of the Cincinnati Reds is the clear favorite, but New York Mets starter Nolan McLean has enjoyed a stellar season. The St. Louis Cardinals' JJ Wetherholt deserves credit for a strong year as well.
Stewart appeared in all 162 games and hit 32 home runs while recording a slash line of .263/.330/.457. The infielder added 25 doubles, 111 RBI and 15 stolen bases.
McLean pitched to a 3.16 ERA in 31 outings while striking out 194 hitters.
The NL Rookie of the Year race should be closer than it is likely going to be, but Stewart's impact was undeniable this year. Unlike the Messick-McGonigle race, McLain was not quite as dominant and he wasn't the ace for a playoff team. Rather, he pitched for a Mets ball club that disappointed at an alarming rate. While that is not McLain's fault, it also won't do him any favors in the Rookie of the Year conversation.
NL Rookie of the Year prediction: Sal Stewart
My NL Rookie of the Year selection: Sal Stewart
AL Cy Young
Perhaps the Toronto Blue Jays' Dylan Cease could have made this race more competitive had he not suffered an injury late in the season. Cleveland's Messick may finish as an AL Cy Young finalist as a rookie. However, Cam Schlittler of the New York Yankees is unquestionably going to win this award.
Schlittler may even receive some AL MVP consideration with the way he performed in 2026. The right-handed hurler led the league with a 1.95 ERA in his 33 starts. He added a league leading 215 ERA-plus. Schlittler also struck out 239 hitters while leading the league with a 7.0 WAR for pitchers.
It was a remarkable campaign for a starter who is becoming one of the best pitchers in the sport.
AL Cy Young prediction: Cam Schlittler
My AL Cy Young selection: Cam Schlittler
NL Cy Young
Cristopher Sanchez and Chris Sale both pitched well in 2026, but Jacob Misiorowski is going to win the NL Cy Young Award. He's arguably the best pitcher in baseball and he led the Milwaukee Brewers to the best record in MLB. “The Miz” turned in the best ERA in the sport with a mark of 1.80. I've had to say “the best” a lot while discussing Misiorowski for good reason.
His 252 strikeouts, 232 ERA-plus, 2.17 FIP and 0.802 WHIP were also the best marks in the league. Misiorowski was almost unhittable across his 30 starts this season.
NL Cy Young prediction: Jacob Misiorowski
Article Continues BelowMy NL Cy Young selection: Jacob Misiorowski
AL MVP
The AL MVP race is fascinating this year. If Yordan Alvarez was not a designated hitter, he'd be the clear favorite. Even while spending most of his time DH, Alvarez may be the favorite to win the award.
Schlittler may deserve some recognition as mentioned and Bobby Witt Jr. is always in the conversation. However, the biggest challenger to Alvarez is Junior Caminero of the Tampa Bay Rays.
Alvarez's numbers jump off the page. His following statistics all lead the league: .316 batting average, .432 OBP, .601 slugging percentage, 1.033 OPS, 190 OPS-plus, 341 total bases and 33 intentional walks. While he did not win the AL Triple Crown, Alvarez did record 42 home runs, 34 doubles and 106 RBI.
Caminero's offensive numbers are not quite as strong but impressive nonetheless. He recorded a .276/.360/.524 slash line, an .885 OPS, 42 home runs, 25 doubles and 101 RBI. He also played in all 162 games.
Let's address the DH element of the MVP race. Alvarez did spend most of his time at designated hitter while Caminero is an everyday third baseman, but does Caminero's defense give him the advantage in the AL MVP conversation? Well, not exactly.
His outs above average ranked in the second percentile in all of MLB this year, while he ranked in just the 62nd percentile for arm strength while playing a position that requires strong arm strength at third base. Caminero played 161 games at third base and one game at first base, making 21 total errors for the season. 20 of those errors came at third base, which was among the worst marks in the game.
Also, it isn't as if Alvarez only played DH. He spent 25 games in the outfield compared to 134 at DH.
It should be a competitive race, but Alvarez deserves the AL MVP.
AL MVP prediction: Yordan Alvarez
My AL MVP selection: Yordan Alvarez
NL MVP
One of the biggest talking points in all of MLB this year was the NL MVP race. It seemed as if Pete Crow-Armstrong and Shohei Ohtani were going to have a riveting battle down the final stretch of the season. Instead, Ohtani suffered an injury, has been limited to only hitting in recent months and has struggled since returning from the injury.
Crow-Armstrong will be the first player other than Ohtani to win an NL MVP Award since the 2023 season. Shohei still made 14 starts on the mound which keeps him in the conversation, but PCA's all-around prowess as a position player will give him the award.
The Cubs star hit .280 with league leading marks of a .570 slugging percentage and .943 OPS. His 45 home runs, 119 runs scored, 156 OPS-plus, 357 total bases and 9.8 WAR also led the league. PCA appeared in all 162 games as well. It's more than just offense, however.
Crow-Armstrong became the seventh player in MLB history to record a 40/40 season, finishing the year with 41 stolen bases. From a defensive standpoint, PCA ranked in the 100th percentile in outs above average and 90th percentile in arm strength while playing a premier position in center field.
NL MVP prediction: Pete Crow-Armstrong
My NL MVP selection: Pete Crow-Armstrong

