Miami looks to remain the top team in the nation, but first, they must beat North Carolina. It is time to continue the NCAA Football odds series with a Miami-North Carolina prediction and pick.
Miami comes in as the top team in the nation. They come into the game at 7-0 on the season, and many of the games have not been close. They opened up with wins over Stanford and Florida A&M before their first semi-close game facing Wake Forest on the road. Miami built a massive 24-7 lead at the end of the first half, and while Wake Forest tried to stick around, the Hurricanes won 33-20. They would then defeat Central Michigan and Clemson before facing Florida State. It took two overtimes and some controversy, but Miami held on to win 43-35. Last time out, they took out Pitt 52-23.
Meanwhile, North Carolina is 4-3 on the year. They opened up with wins over TCU and Eastern Tennessee State. They would then fall to Clemson in a tight game before losing to Notre Dame by 11. Still, Bill Belichick and the Tar Heels rebounded. They took wins over Pitt and Duke on the road. Last week, they returned home to face Syracuse. The Heels took the early 10-0 lead, but Syracuse came back, and North Carolina led just 13-10 at half. Demon June scored in the third quarter to extend the lead, but Syracuse answered with a touchdown of their own in the fourth. After a Rece Verhoff field goal, Syracuse drove the field and scored with under two minutes left. Still, they missed the extra point, and the game went to overtime at 23. In the first overtime, UNC scored, but Syracuse answered with a score and then went for two. They hit the conversion as Syracuse won 31-30, and North Carolina's Belichick was placed firmly on the hot seat.
North Carolina and Miami are meeting for the 28th time. Miami has won just 11 of them, while North Carolina has 16 wins, but two of them have been vacated. North Carolina has won five straight in the series, including in 2023 when they beat Miami 41-31 in Chapel Hill. The last time Miami won was at home in 2018, and they also won on the road in 2017.
Miami vs. North Carolina Odds
Miami: -14 (-115)
USC: +14 (-105)
Over: 52.5 (-110)
Under: 52.5 (-110)
Watch Miami-North Carolina LIVE with fuboTV (free trial)Miami vs. North Carolina Key Injuries
Miami- WR Joshua Moore (Out), RB CharMar Brown (Out), DB Ja'Boree Antoine (Out), DB Romanas Fredreique Jr. (Out), OL Max Buchanan (Out), TE Luka Gilbert (Out)
North Carolina- DB Tre Miller (Out), DL Viliami Moala (Out), WR Keeyun Chapman (Out), DL Vodeny Cleveland (Out), DL Jimmy-Phrisco Alo-Fuliafu (Out), DB Peyton Waters (Questionable), LB Jonathan Agumdu (Questionable), OL Jordan Hall (Questionable), OL Andrew Threatt (Questionable), DL Zavion Griffin-Haynes (Probable)
Miami vs. North Carolina Betting Trends
– The Hurricanes are 5-2 against the spread this year, and 1-1 on the road.
– Miami is just 1-1 against the spread when it is under 20 points.
– The over is 6-1 for Miami this year, including covering in four straight.
– North Carolina is 4-3 against the spread this year.
– The Tar Heels are 4-1 against the spread when an underdog, and won outright three times.
– The under has hit in four of seven games for the Tar Heels this year, but just one of three at home.
Article Continues BelowKeys to Miami vs. North Carolina matchup
Miami needs to finish in the red zone to cover in this one. Noth Carolina has a bend but do not break style of defense. They are good at giving up field goals, as long as it does not lead to touchdowns. UNC is 55th in the nation in opponent red zone scoring this year. Meanwhile, Miami has been great in the red zone, sitting fifth in the nation in red zone scoring. This is all led by Darian Mensah. He has completed 81.4 percent of his passes for 2,151 yards and 22 touchdowns. Further, he has been intercepted just once this year. Further, the running game for Miami has been solid. Javian Mallory has run for 444 yards and seven touchdowns. Meanwhile, Mark Fletcher Jr. has run for 414 yards and seven scores on his own.
On defense, it is all about forcing Billy Edwards into difficult situations and clear passing downs. That starts with stopping the run. Miami has been solid on defense this year, sitting 15th in the nation in opponent points per game and 30th in opponent yards per game. Further, they are the best in the nation against the run. If they can force North Carolina into obvious passing downs, Marquise Lightfoot could have a huge game. He already has five sacks this year. Meanwhile, Damon Wilson II has also been great on the pass rush with 3.5 sacks this year.
For North Carolina, it starts with establishing the run game. The UNC run game has not been great this year, but they have some options to get it going. Benjamin Hall has run for 283 yards but has yet to score. Meanwhile, Demon June has been great, with 245 yards and seven scores, plus another touchdown through the air. Finally, Jaylen McGill has run for 234 yards and two scores. If they establish the run game and make Miami respect it, that will be huge for Billy Edwards. Edwards has five interceptions this year, but all are under pressure. The run game can help stop that.
On defense, the Tar Heels have to stop Malachi Toney. Toney has been a beast this year for Miami. He has 66 receptions for 952 yards and 11 touchdowns. North Carolina is 76th in opponent passing yards per game while also sitting 107th in sack percentage. Greg Smith III has been great this year, with four pass breakups and another three interceptions. Further, he has a forced fumble and a fumble recovery. If North Carolina can slow down Toney and force a turnover, they could be in a solid situation.
Miami vs. North Carolina Prediction and Pick
Miami is the best offense in the nation, and matches up perfectly agaisnt North Carolina. First, they are second in the nation in third-down conversion percentage, while UNC is 95th on defense. They are also fourth in the nation in passing yards and first in completion percentage. North Carolina is 76th against the pass and 77th in opponent completion percentage. Finally, Miami is eighth in the nation in turnover margin per game, sitting sixth in giveaways and 15th in takeaways. North Carolina is 111th in turnover margin, 115th in giveaways, and 79th in takeaways. The only positive for North Carolina is going to come from the officials. UNC is second when it comes to penalties per game, while Miami is 113th. That will not be enough to tilt this game.
Final Miami vs. North Carolina Prediction and Pick: Miami -14 (-110) and Over 52.5 (-110)