UFC 334: Gane vs. Hokit features an intriguing ranked women's bantamweight clash on the early prelims between veteran Macy Chiasson and undefeated grappling phenom Bia Mesquita. Check out our UFC 334 odds series for our Chiasson-Mesquita prediction and pick.
Macy Chiasson (10-6) enters Madison Square Garden looking to snap a three-fight losing streak in the women's bantamweight division. After earning stoppage wins over Pannie Kianzad and Mayra Bueno Silva in 2024, the former Ultimate Fighter winner dropped consecutive unanimous decisions to Ketlen Vieira, Yana Santos and Ailin Perez as she comes into her fight this weekend against Bia Mesquita.
Bia Mesquita (8-0) has looked unstoppable since transitioning her legendary Brazilian jiu-jitsu career to the Octagon. The 35-year-old grappling icon submitted Irina Alekseeva and Montserrat Rendon via rear-naked chokes before outgrappling Melissa Mullins in June as she comes into her fight this weekend against Macy Chiasson.
UFC 334 Odds, courtesy of DraftKings
UFC 334 Odds: Macy Chiasson-Bia Mesquita Odds
Macy Chiasson: +215
Bia Mesquita: -265
Over 2.5 rounds: +145
Under 2.5 rounds: -188
Watch sports LIVE with fuboTV (free trial)Why Macy Chiasson Will Win
Macy Chiasson boasts a massive physical frame for the 135-pound division, standing five-foot-eleven with a 72-inch reach—giving her a seven-inch height advantage and five-inch reach edge over the five-foot-four Bia Mesquita. If Chiasson utilizes her length and veteran Octagon experience, she can make life miserable for the shorter grappler.
While Mesquita is a world-class submission artist on the canvas, her striking and wrestling entries are still relatively green against ranked UFC competition. Chiasson is at her absolute best when she uses long straight punches, teep kicks and vicious clinch knees and elbows, such as the slicing elbow that stopped former champion Mayra Bueno Silva.
Because Mesquita is seven inches shorter, she has to cover a massive amount of space just to reach Chiasson's hips or clinch. If Chiasson establishes her jab early, uses wide underhooks to stuff the takedown attempts against the cage and punishes Mesquita with knees to the body, the Brazilian could tire out.
Chiasson has faced the elite of the division for seven years, and her size and clinch striking could earn her an upset decision.
Why Bia Mesquita Will Win
Bia Mesquita is one of the most decorated female Brazilian jiu-jitsu practitioners in combat sports history, and Macy Chiasson's recent fights have exposed a glaring weakness against grapplers. Across Chiasson's three-fight losing streak to Ketlen Vieira, Yana Santos and Ailin Perez, she was repeatedly taken down, controlled on the canvas and unable to get back to her feet.
Being taken down by Yana Santos or Ailin Perez leads to losing rounds on the scorecards, whereas being taken down by Bia Mesquita leads to getting tapped out immediately. Mesquita has cruised to an 8-0 professional record by effortlessly dragging opponents to the mat, slicing straight to mount or back control and locking up rear-naked chokes.
Although Chiasson is five-foot-eleven, her tall, lanky frame actually works against her when defending low single-leg and double-leg takedowns, as her hips sit high and easy to access. Furthermore, Chiasson often willingly engages in cage clinches, which is fatal against a world champion grappler who excels at body-lock trips.
Article Continues BelowOnce Mesquita gets this fight to the floor in the opening frame, her generational submission skills will force Chiasson to tap inside two rounds.
Final Chiasson-Mesquita Prediction & Pick
Bia Mesquita is the pick to remain undefeated and claim a top-10 ranking because her world-class grappling directly exploits Macy Chiasson's biggest stylistic vulnerability. While Chiasson holds a massive seven-inch height advantage and five-inch reach edge, the veteran has never been an elusive outside footwork specialist who keeps opponents at the end of her jab.
Instead, Chiasson tends to get drawn into clinches along the fence, where Ketlen Vieira, Yana Santos and Ailin Perez all easily grounded her over her last three outings. Giving up top position to Mesquita is a death sentence in women's MMA, as the multiple-time IBJJF and ADCC world champion operates on another stratosphere on the mat.
Mesquita's compact five-foot-four frame will allow her to duck effortlessly underneath Chiasson's wide punches, secure a deep body lock or low single-leg and drag the tall American to the canvas. Once on the floor, Chiasson's long limbs and neck will be prime targets for armbars and chokes.
Look for Mesquita to secure an early takedown, slice past Chiasson's guard with ease and lock up a rear-naked choke in the first or second round.
Final Macy Chiasson-Bia Mesquita Prediction & Pick: Bia Mesquita (-265), UNDER 2.5 rounds (-188)