UFC 334: Gane vs. Hokit continues on the main card with a pivotal middleweight clash between fifth-ranked contender Caio Borralho and towering kickboxer Yousri Belgaroui. Check out our UFC 334 odds series for our Borralho-Belgaroui prediction and pick.
Caio Borralho (18-2, 1 NC) bounced back into the win column at UFC 326 in March by earning a unanimous decision victory over Reinier de Ridder. That triumph followed a five-round unanimous decision loss to Nassourdine Imavov that snapped his seven-fight UFC win streak as he comes into his fight this weekend against Yousri Belgaroui.
Yousri Belgaroui (11-3) is riding a three-fight knockout streak after earning his UFC contract on the Contender Series. The former GLORY kickboxing title challenger stopped Azamat Bekoev with third-round punches before knocking out Mansur Abdul-Malik with a third-round knee as he comes into his fight this weekend against Caio Borralho.
UFC 334 Odds, courtesy of DraftKings
UFC 334 Odds: Caio Borralho-Yousri Belgaroui Odds
Caio Borralho: -162
Yousri Belgaroui: +136
Over 2.5 rounds: -238
Under 2.5 rounds: +180
Watch sports LIVE with fuboTV (free trial)Why Caio Borralho Will Win
Caio Borralho holds a massive grappling and fight IQ advantage over Yousri Belgaroui in this middleweight matchup. As the flagship contender from the Fighting Nerds camp, Borralho excels at tailoring his gameplan to exploit his opponent's biggest weaknesses while keeping himself out of danger.
While Borralho struggled to take down Nassourdine Imavov in his lone UFC loss, Belgaroui does not possess anywhere near that level of defensive wrestling. Standing six-foot-five, the Dutch-Tunisian kickboxer leaves his hips high and vulnerable when throwing long combinations or stepping in with knees.
Borralho is a decorated Brazilian jiu-jitsu black belt and judo brown belt who uses a wide karate stance to dart in and out of range. He can bait Belgaroui into overextending on the feet, duck under a long punch and effortlessly secure reactive double-leg takedowns in open space.
Once this fight hits the canvas, Borralho's suffocating top ride, leg-riding control and seamless back takes will completely neutralize Belgaroui's length. Expect Borralho to control multiple rounds on the mat, wear the tall striker down and either cruise on the scorecards or lock up a rear-naked choke.
Why Yousri Belgaroui Will Win
Yousri Belgaroui brings elite championship-level kickboxing credentials and a towering frame that can turn this bout into a nightmare for Caio Borralho on the feet. Standing six-foot-five with a 79-inch reach, Belgaroui boasts a five-inch height advantage and four-inch reach edge over the Brazilian.
In Borralho's loss to Nassourdine Imavov, we saw that when “The Natural” is forced to strike at range and cannot secure easy takedowns, his low-volume single-shot output gets outpaced by combination punchers. Belgaroui is a master at stringing together crisp boxing combinations punctuated by devastating knees and low kicks.
Training alongside former champions Alex Pereira and Glover Teixeira at Teixeira MMA, Belgaroui has rapidly improved his takedown defense, cage wall-walking and third-round finishing instincts. Both of his UFC victories over Azamat Bekoev and Mansur Abdul-Malik came via third-round TKO, proving his cardio holds up wonderfully over 15 minutes.
Article Continues BelowIf Belgaroui uses his long jab, front kicks and intercepting knees to punish Borralho's level changes, he can keep this fight upright. From there, Belgaroui's superior volume and reach will allow him to piece Borralho up from distance for a statement victory.
Final Borralho-Belgaroui Prediction & Pick
Caio Borralho is the pick to get his hand raised because his grappling pedigree and tactical discipline are tailor-made to neutralize a tall kickboxer like Yousri Belgaroui. While Belgaroui has looked fantastic stopping Azamat Bekoev and Mansur Abdul-Malik, facing a top-five contender with elite Brazilian jiu-jitsu is a massive step up in competition.
Belgaroui will certainly have moments early where his jab and five-inch height advantage frustrate Borralho on the outside. However, Borralho is far too smart to stand in kickboxing range and trade combinations with a former GLORY standout for 15 minutes.
Unlike Nassourdine Imavov, Belgaroui's tall center of gravity makes it difficult for him to sprawl quickly when an explosive wrestler shoots underneath his punches. Once Borralho times a level change in the opening frame and puts Belgaroui on his back, the Brazilian's heavy top pressure and back control will dominate the narrative.
Whether Borralho finds a submission neck in transition or rides out lengthy control time across all three frames, his grappling superiority will dictate the terms of this fight.
Final Caio Borralho-Yousri Belgaroui Prediction & Pick: Caio Borralho (-162), OVER 2.5 rounds (-238)