Kentucky is off to a 5-1 start, but faces an Oklahoma team fresh off a win over rival Texas at Red River. It is time to continue the NCAA Football odds series with a Kentucky-Oklahoma prediction and pick.
Kentucky comes into the game with just one blemish on their record. After a week one win over Youngstown State 45-13, they hosted Alabama. While the Wildcats kept it close, holding a 17-13 lead going into halftime, the Tide were too much to overcome. Kentucky lost the game 45-17. Kentucky would rebound, hitting the road against ninth-ranked Texas A&M. The Wildcats built a dominating lead on the way to a 31-21 upset. After a 45-21 victory over South Alabama, they played back-to-back overtime games.
First, it was on the road against South Carolina. Kentucky tied the game in the fourth quarter, leading to overtime. After South Carolina scored in overtime, Kentucky answered and went for two. Kenny Minchey found Willie Rodriguez for the two and the 35-34 win. This past Saturday, the Wildcats hit a field goal with 12 seconds left in the game to force overtime against LSU. After a Sam Leavitt touchdown, Kentucky answered with a CJ Baxter score. As they did the week before, Will Stein called for the two-point play. Minchey ran in the conversion attempt, leading to a second straight 35-34 victory, and the Kentucky fans stormed the field.
Meanwhile, Oklahoma is 3-2 on the season. They opened up with a 51-0 win over UTEP before visiting Michigan. Michigan took a 10-0 lead going into the half, but Oklahoma would tie it in the fourth quarter. A John Mateer interception led to a Jordan Marshall touchdown, and the 17-10 Michigan win. They would struggle again the next week, squeaking out a 14-6 victory over New Mexico. Then, it was a 41-13 loss to Georgia on the road. Last time out, they faced Texas. Oklahoma was down ten at the half, but tied in the fourth quarter. They took the lead thanks to a pick-six off Arch Manning, but Texas would tie it again. Then, Texas had the ball with the chance to win, but another Manning interception led to a Tate Sandell 47-yard game-winning field goal as Oklahoma won 27-24.
These two teams have faced each other just three times in their histories. Kentucky won the first meeting in the Sugar Bowl on New Year's Day 1951. Oklahoma has won the last two games, beating Kentucky in 1980 and 1982.
Kentucky vs. Oklahoma Odds
Kentucky: +6.5 (-108)
Oklahoma: -6.5 (-112)
Over: 43.5 (-108)
Under: 43.5 (-111)
Watch Kentucky-Oklahoma LIVE with fuboTV (free trial)Kentucky vs. Oklahoma Key Injuries
Kentucky- ILB Antwan Swith (Out), DB Jaden Smith (Out), ILB Tavion Wallace (Out), DB Grant Grayton (Out), DE Tyler Thomas (Doubtful), RB CJ Baxter (Questionable), ILB Alex Afari Jr. (Questionable), TE Elijah Brown (Questionable), DL Kalen Edward (Questionable), WR Nic Anderson (Probable), DB Hasaan Sykes (Probable)
Oklahoma- LB Taylor Heim (Out), WR Trell Harris (Out), RB Xavier Robinson (Out), TE Trynae Washington (Out), DB Jacobe Johnson (Out), WR Parker Livingstone (Questionable), DB Eli Bowen (Questionable), OL Eddy Pierre-Louis (Questionable), OL Michael Fasusi (Questionable), OL Fred Hinton (Questionable), OL Heath Ozaeta (Questionable), RB Tory Blaylock (Probable), TE Jack Van Dorselaer (Probable)
Kentucky vs. Oklahoma Betting Trends
– The Wildcats are 4-1 against the spread, and 2-0 on the road.
– Kentucky is 3-1 against the spread as an underdog, winning outright three times.
– The over is 5-1 for Kentucky this year, including hitting in five straight.
– Oklahoma is 2-3 against the spread.
– Oklahoma is 1-2 against the spread when a favorite, including losing outright once.
– The under has hit in three of five games for the Sooners this year, but the over has hit in two straight.
Article Continues BelowKeys to Kentucky vs. Oklahoma matchup
For Kentucky, they need to establish run dominance early. Kentucky has been solid on the ground this year, sitting 47th in the nation in rushing yards per game, and 29th in yards per carry. CJ Baxter has led the way, with 87 carries for 484 yards and eight touchdowns. Still, he is questionable for the game, which will put more pressure on Jason Patterson and Jovante Barnes if he cannot go. Patterson has 47 carries for 361 yards and three scores, while Barnes has 140 yards on 23 carries with a touchdown. If Kentucky can establish the run, it will open the play-action pass, where Kenny Minchey has thrived. He has 11 touchdowns to just one interception this year, and much of that is work on the play-action.
On defense, the Wildcats have to put the Sooners in third-and-long situations. Oklahoma is 118th in the nation in third downs and also 105th in allowing the defense to get John Mateer. Obvious third-down passing situations compound those issues. This means Kentucky has to slow down Lloyd Avant early. He has run 52 times this year for 236 yards and two touchdowns. Kentucky has been solid against the run this year as well, which could lead to long third downs, turnovers, and short fields for the offense.
For Oklahoma, they have to finish drives. Mateer has struggled at times this year, with just 1,038 passing yards, eight touchdowns, but four interceptions. Meanwhile, Isaiah Sategna III and Rocky Beers have been solid. Sategna has 331 yards on 25 receptions with two scores. Beers has 22 receptions for 284 yards and two scores as well. While they have had some success moving the ball, they are 44th in red zone scoring. With the struggles on Mateer, taking three points instead of seven with catch up to the Sooners.
On defense, they have to maintain discipline. If Baxter is a go, the Wildcats have two running backs who can burst for big plays, but run in different styles. Further, Kenny Minchey has shown he can go off script and make big plays as well. Minchey has not been well protected this year, and while Oklahoma has a pass rush, without discipline they will overpursue, leading to Minchey making a big play. Further, Oklahoma is 65th in the nation in penalties per game, something they cannot afford in this one.
Kentucky vs. Oklahoma Prediction and Pick
Kentucky has been great on the road this year, and the running game is very difficult to stop. Meanwhile, outside of the end of the game against Texas, John Mateer has struggled heavily. The defense is good, but the offense has been stagnant all year long. Unless Oklahoma can slow down the Kentucky offense, they will have a hard time scoring enough to keep up in this one. Turnovers will play a part in this one as well. Kentucky is eighth in the nation in takeaways per game, while Oklahoma is 123rd in the nation in giveaways per game. A few short fields for Kentucky will flip this game quickly. Kentucky gets the win, while Oklahoma's lack of scoring keeps the total low.
Final Kentucky vs. Oklahoma Prediction and Pick: Kentucky +6.5 (-108) and Under 43.5 (-112)