UFC 334: Gane vs. Hokit features an early preliminary bantamweight clash between surging Peruvian finisher Juan Diaz and veteran short-notice replacement Alatengheili. Check out our UFC 334 odds series for our Diaz-Alatengheili prediction and pick.
Juan Diaz (16-1-1) enters Madison Square Garden riding a nine-fight winning streak and a five-year unbeaten run. After earning his UFC contract with a spinning back elbow knockout of Won Il Kwon on the Contender Series, the former LUX champion submitted Malcolm Wellmaker in the second round in May as he comes into his fight this weekend against Alatengheili.
Alatengheili (18-10-2) steps in on late notice replacing an injured Adrian Yanez after snapping a two-fight losing skid in September. Following unanimous decision defeats to Chris Gutierrez and Da'Mon Blackshear, the 34-year-old Mongolian veteran defeated John Castaneda via split decision as he comes into his fight this weekend against Juan Diaz.
UFC 334 Odds, courtesy of DraftKings
UFC 334 Odds: Juan Diaz-Alatengheili Odds
Juan Diaz: -410
Alatengheili: +320
Over 2.5 rounds: -215
Under 2.5 rounds: +165
Watch sports LIVE with fuboTV (free trial)Why Juan Diaz Will Win
Juan Diaz is a dynamic, well-rounded 28-year-old contender entering his physical prime on a nine-fight winning streak, whereas Alatengheili is a 34-year-old veteran stepping in on just one week's notice. Standing five-foot-eight with a 69-inch reach, Diaz holds a three-inch height and three-inch reach advantage over the compact Mongolian fighter.
Having prepared for a high-volume striker in Adrian Yanez for a full training camp, Diaz's conditioning, timing and footwork will be razor-sharp. In his Contender Series knockout of Won Il Kwon and his UFC debut submission over Malcolm Wellmaker, “Pegajoso” proved he can finish high-level opponents both with creative strikes and on the canvas.
Alatengheili is notoriously low-volume and passive on the feet, often waiting for single overhand rights and losing clear decisions to active movement-based strikers like Chris Gutierrez and Da'Mon Blackshear. Without a full training camp to prepare for Diaz's relentless pace and five-round LUX championship cardio, Alatengheili will fall behind on volume early.
Diaz will use his reach, kicks and scrambling ability to outwork Alatengheili across all three rounds for a comfortable decision win.
Why Alatengheili Will Win
Alatengheili is a stocky, durable veteran with 11 UFC fights of experience who has made a career out of spoiling the hype of younger prospects. Having just fought six weeks ago on September 26 when he defeated tough veteran John Castaneda via split decision, “The Mongolian Knight” is already in fighting shape despite taking this bout on short notice.
While Juan Diaz has looked impressive finishing Won Il Kwon and Malcolm Wellmaker, he was losing exchanges and absorbing heavy shots in both of those bouts before pulling off second-round comeback finishes. Diaz carries a low 36 percent significant striking accuracy rate, meaning he often swings wide and leaves openings for counter-punchers.
Alatengheili possesses a granite chin—having never been knocked out in his UFC career—along with a thunderous overhand right and a powerhouse freestyle wrestling base. Against Castaneda, Alatengheili landed three takedowns to steal close rounds on the judges' scorecards.
Article Continues BelowIf Alatengheili ducks under Diaz's wild spinning attacks, lands his heavy overhand right counter and mixes in timely takedowns to control the top position, he can grind out a gritty upset decision.
Final Diaz-Alatengheili Prediction & Pick
Juan Diaz is the pick to extend his winning streak to 10 fights because his youth, output, reach advantage and full training camp give him a decisive edge over a short-notice opponent. While Alatengheili deserves credit for saving the bout after Adrian Yanez withdrew, stepping in on a week's notice at 34 years old is a tough spot.
Alatengheili is extremely durable and has gone to decision in nine of his 11 UFC appearances, meaning Diaz is unlikely to find an easy knockout like his spinning back elbow against Won Il Kwon. Furthermore, Alatengheili's compact frame and stout wrestling base will make him difficult for Diaz to ragdoll on the canvas.
However, Alatengheili's biggest flaw has always been his low striking output, as he tends to shell up and wait for single counter shots while opponents bank rounds on volume. Diaz trains at the UFC Performance Institute in Mexico City and possesses the high-pace cardio to throw combinations from the outside without getting pinned down.
Expect a competitive 15-minute battle where Diaz avoids Alatengheili's big right hand, outlands him consistently from range and takes a unanimous decision.
Final Juan Diaz-Alatengheili Prediction & Pick: Juan Diaz (-410), OVER 2.5 rounds (-215)