UFC 331: Van vs. Pantoja 2 is headlined by the flyweight title rematch between champion Joshua Van and former champion Alexandre Pantoja. Check out our UFC 331 odds series for our Van-Pantoja prediction and pick.

Joshua Van (17-2) enters riding a seven-fight win streak, capturing the flyweight title via first-round TKO over Pantoja at UFC 323 after an elbow injury, then defending it with a dramatic fifth-round TKO of Tatsuro Taira at UFC 328. Now he runs it back as he comes into his fight this weekend against Alexandre Pantoja.

Alexandre Pantoja (26-6) lost his flyweight title in a stunning first-round TKO loss to Joshua Van at UFC 323 after an accidental elbow injury forced an early stoppage, snapping his five-fight title-defense reign. He then sat out to heal before earning this immediate rematch, as he comes into his fight this weekend against Joshua Van looking to reclaim the belt.

UFC 331 Odds, courtesy of DraftKings.

UFC 331 Odds: Joshua Van-Alexandre Pantoja

Joshua Van: -135

Alexandre Pantoja: +114

Over 4.5 rounds: +140

Under 4.5 rounds: -180

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Why Joshua Van Will Win

Joshua Van brings a striking volume advantage that few flyweights can match, landing 8.4 significant strikes per minute compared with Pantoja’s 4.4. At just 24 years old, Van is also fresher and faster, giving him the tools to overwhelm a 36-year-old former champion over 25 minutes.

His output escalates as fights progress rather than fading. Statistical breakdowns show Van’s work rate builds to roughly 219% of his round-one pace by round three, while Pantoja’s rises only marginally, meaning the longer this rematch goes, the more Van should pull away.

Van’s accuracy is another separator, connecting at 57% compared with Pantoja’s 50%, and he already has a finish over Pantoja on his résumé from their first meeting. Even though that fight ended controversially in 26 seconds due to injury, it still proved Van’s speed and power translate against elite competition.

Pantoja’s best route is a takedown-heavy grinding style, but Van’s 75.7% takedown defense gives him a real chance of keeping the fight standing. If Van stays disciplined behind his jab, uses his reach efficiently, and avoids Pantoja’s clinch entries, his volume and finishing speed should be enough to retain the title.

Why Alexandre Pantoja Will Win

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Alexandre Pantoja can beat Joshua Van by turning their rematch into the kind of compressed, grappling-heavy fight that neutralizes Van’s extraordinary striking volume. Pantoja averages 2.79 takedowns per 15 minutes and has long been one of flyweight’s most persistent back-take threats, giving him a credible route to control rounds rather than trade freely at distance.

The first meeting lasted only 26 seconds and ended after Pantoja’s arm was injured in a scramble, not after a sustained technical breakdown. That makes the result meaningful psychologically, but limited as evidence of how a full five-round fight between them would unfold.

Pantoja’s championship experience is another major factor. At 36, he has competed in high-pressure title fights against elite opponents, while Van is still early in his reign and must prove he can consistently defend against a veteran who attacks submissions and transitions without pause.

Van’s pace is dangerous, but it also creates openings if he throws in long combinations and remains squared after exchanges. Pantoja can time reactive shots, force clinches, drag Van to the fence, and make the champion spend energy defending his hips, neck, and back.

This matchup is close, reflected by early prices that briefly favored Pantoja before Van became a modest favorite. If Pantoja survives the opening burst, establishes top control early, and avoids prolonged boxing exchanges, his experience and submission game could produce a decision win or late choke.

Final Joshua Van-Alexandre Pantoja Prediction & Pick

This flyweight title rematch is one of the closest fights on the card, with Van opening as a modest favorite around -132 to Pantoja’s +113 after briefly being an underdog earlier in fight week. That tight line reflects genuinely unresolved questions since their first meeting lasted only 26 seconds due to an injury, not a clean finish.

Van’s output should be the deciding factor if this goes long. He lands 8.4 significant strikes per minute to Pantoja’s 4.4, and his volume tends to increase as fights progress, which could overwhelm a 36-year-old former champion over 25 minutes.

Pantoja’s best chance is imposing his wrestling early, using his 2.79 takedowns per 15 minutes to drag Van into scrambles and chase submissions before the younger champion’s pace takes over. If he cannot consistently get Van down, though, he risks absorbing increasing damage each round.

The pick is Joshua Van by decision or later finish, surviving Pantoja’s early grappling threat and gradually breaking him down with volume striking to retain the flyweight title.

Final Joshua Van-Alexandre Pantoja Prediction & Pick: Joshua Van (-135), OVER 4.5 Rounds (+140)