Star third basemen could be the difference in AL pennant
The past and future stars of third base in the American League could decide the pennant in 2026.
José Ramírez wasn’t an All-Star this year. It was the first time the Guardians veteran failed to earn the nod since 2019. Ramírez got off to a sluggish start, broke the hamate bone in his left hand in June, and slumped mightily in the second half after returning from the injured list. He hit .235/.320/.368 (92 wRC+) on the year as a whole. It was definitively the worst performance of his career, snapping a decade-long run as one of the best and most consistent players in the majors.
But Ramírez enters the ALCS on Monday on something of a hot streak. He surged over the final two weeks of the regular season, and helped carry the Guardians back from down 2-0 against the White Sox in the ALDS. He already has five hits this postseason, including four for extra bases. His two-run home run in Game 5 on Saturday secured Cleveland’s spot in the ALCS.
This trend is crucial. It could be what tips the scale in a highly competitive series on paper. The Guardians outlasted the White Sox in the AL Central (and ALDS) on the strength of their rotation and bullpen, but they’ve lacked depth in their lineup all year. If Ramírez is back to being one of the best hitters in the league, he provides the fearsome middle-of-the-order bat the Guardians need.
That’s not to say their lineup is totally desolate. Chase DeLauter was strong at the plate in his rookie year, as was Travis Bazzana. Steven Kwan has been finding more grass of late with his slap-hitting approach. Angel Martínez provides a little bit of everything on the field, even if his style of play lends him to being a bit streaky (and currently 0-for-15 in the playoffs).
Still, while there are a handful of useful role players, there just hasn’t been that legitimate thump at the top of the order, to advance runners and apply pressure and make opponents sweat. Ramírez renewed presence changes that. In a postseason bereft of offense league-wide, the Guardians 93 wRC+ is second behind only the Brewers, with Ramírez himself ranking fifth with a 211 wRC+. This group now looks competitive at the very least.
And competitive is all they really need to be, as we saw in Game 5, when the Guardians shutout the White Sox with 21 strikeouts. That wasn’t a total outlier, either: No pitching staff struck out more batters in the second half this season than Cleveland.
Gavin Williams got the start in Game 5 and picked up the first 11 of those strikeouts. He’s quietly been one of the best starting pitchers in the majors this year, and only Jacob Misiorowski and Dylan Cease struck out batters at a higher rate. Then there’s rookie Parker Messick, who finished the season top 10 in fWAR with an outstanding 2.56 ERA. Foster Griffin, who starts Game 1 on Monday, brings a “kitchen sink” approach from the left side and has occasionally dominated deep into games this year. The Guardians rotation is surprisingly deep for a group without a true “ace.”
The bullpen is really where they shine. If Cade Smith isn’t the best reliever in baseball, he’s at least the best remaining in the postseason (with Mason Miller recently eliminated). Erik Sabrowski is a solid 1b choice as one of the best lefty relievers in the game. But it’s the depth of the bullpen that serves to impress, with seven different relievers posting a FIP under 3 in the second half of the season. Expect Cleveland to use lots of different pitchers in this series — and expect them to be effective in doing so.
Still, they have a tough path ahead against the AL’s winningest team in Tampa Bay. The Rays are led by All-Star third baseman Junior Caminero, who hit 42 home runs this year and posted a .276/.360/.524 slash line with a 142 wRC+. Caminero, just 22, finished his second straight season among the top 25 players in the majors by fWAR, and has perhaps replaced Ramírez as the premier third baseman in the AL.
Caminero’s success is in part brute strength. Nobody swings harder at a scintillating 79.5 mph average bat speed. When he connects, he really connects.
But Caminero isn’t a free swinger taking massive upper cuts and aiming for the fences. He has a patient approach with a cautious eye, and takes nice, level swings to get the ball in play consistently. His 18.4% strikeout rate was four points below the league’s strikeout rate of 22.1% in 2026, which is rare for a player who swings so hard.
That’s sort of the theme with this Rays lineup. While Caminero is the only true star of the group, their lineup is chock-full of batters who simply refuse to whiff. The Rays 18.8% strikeout rate in 2026 was the lowest in the majors. It’s not just that they get the play in, either. The contact they make is generally on the ground and to the opposite field, going against the recent trend of pulling the ball in the air and chasing home runs. This all-fields approach shifts defenses out of position, especially with runners on base, and forces them to make plays they’re not always equipped to make. The Rays lack of power is why they ultimately finished middle of the pack in run scoring, but their “pesky” approach puts tons of pressure on opponents, and occasionally makes them crack, as we saw with the Yankees error-filled ALDS.
On the mound, the Rays aren’t quite as deep as the Guardians. Drew Rasmussen is perhaps the secret ace of the league, finishing top 10 in fWAR with a 2.67 ERA. He gets strikeouts, he doesn’t give up walks or hard contact, and his broad arsenal keeps batters off balance deep into games. When he’s on, Rasmussen is a joy to watch, and could be the difference in any game he starts.
The issue for the Rays is there isn’t a ton of depth beyond him. Freddy Peralta was the Brewers long-time number one starter, but he took a step back this year, often struggling to put batters away and keep the ball in the yard. Nick Martinez has found success here and there as a sort of wily veteran, but he’s not likely to deliver big innings in this series. On days Rasmussen doesn’t start, expect the Rays to lean heavily on their bullpen.
This ultimately looks like a fairly even matchup, despite the Rays winning 13 more games in the regular season. It’s worth pointing out they were the “luckiest” team in the majors this year, winning eight more games than implied by their run differential. The Rays hold a slight advantage at the plate, but the Guardians have the deeper the rotation.
That’s why I think this series could come down to the positional matchup at third base: the AL’s longtime star of the position versus its future star. I rarely view baseball in individual terms like this, but in a series sure to be played at narrow margins, these two could be all the difference. If Ramírez stays hot, maybe that’s what the Guardians need to squeak across a few runs for their pitching staff. If Caminero can find the barrel, maybe he gives the Rays some rare power to counter Cleveland’s great pitching. If both players are on their game, well, this should be a fun series.