UFC 334: Gane vs. Hokit headlines the early prelims with a lightweight clash between hometown veteran Jared Gordon and surging Brazilian finisher Melquizael Costa. Check out our UFC 334 odds series for our Gordon-Costa prediction and pick.
Jared Gordon (21-9, 1 NC) returns to his native New York hoping to rebound from consecutive stoppage losses. After knocking out Thiago Moises in the first round, the 38-year-old veteran was stopped via third-round elbows by Rafa Garcia before suffering a first-round guillotine submission defeat to Jim Miller in May as he comes into his fight this weekend against Melquizael Costa.
Melquizael Costa (26-8) moves back up to lightweight after having his six-fight featherweight winning streak snapped by Arnold Allen via five-round unanimous decision. Prior to that main event loss, the 30-year-old Brazilian knocked out Dan Ige and Morgan Charriere in the first round as he comes into his fight this weekend against Jared Gordon.
UFC 334 Odds, courtesy of DraftKings
UFC 334 Odds: Jared Gordon-Melquizael Costa Odds
Jared Gordon: +320
Melquizael Costa: -410
Over 2.5 rounds: +110
Under 2.5 rounds: -140
Watch sports LIVE with fuboTV (free trial)Why Jared Gordon Will Win
Jared Gordon is a gritty, battle-tested veteran fighting in front of his hometown New York crowd, and he possesses the pressure-wrestling style that gave Melquizael Costa problems in Costa's previous lightweight stint. When Costa debuted at 155 pounds against Thiago Moises, he was outgrappled and submitted in the second round, whereas Gordon knocked Moises out in one frame.
Gordon is at his best when he marches forward behind a tight high guard, cuts off the cage and forces opponents into exhausting clinch battles along the fence. As a black belt in Brazilian jiu-jitsu with a strong wrestling base, “Flash” excels at grinding out rounds with short punches, dirty boxing and mat control.
Costa relies heavily on flashy kicks and open-space movement, which requires room to operate. If Gordon crowds Costa immediately, takes away his kicking range and puts him on his back early, the Brazilian will struggle to deal with the physicality of a natural lightweight.
Backed by the Madison Square Garden crowd, Gordon can weather Costa's early kicks, turn this into a grueling 15-minute wrestling match and pull off the upset on the scorecards.
Why Melquizael Costa Will Win
Melquizael Costa is operating at the absolute peak of his powers at 30 years old, whereas Jared Gordon is 38 and has suffered stoppage losses in his last two appearances. Before running into elite featherweight contender Arnold Allen over five rounds, Costa reeled off six straight UFC wins, capped by sensational first-round knockouts of Morgan Charriere and Dan Ige.
Moving back up to lightweight without a grueling weight cut to 145 pounds will only enhance Costa's speed, cardio and durability. Standing with a three-inch reach advantage and a dynamic southpaw kicking arsenal, “The Dalmatian” is going to feast on Gordon from the outside.
Gordon's durability has become a major red flag approaching age 40, as six of his nine career losses have come via knockout and he was recently finished by Rafa Garcia and Jim Miller. Costa throws lightning-fast head kicks, spinning back kicks and knees to the body—becoming the first man in UFC history to finish the legendary chin of Dan Ige.
Article Continues BelowCosta will pick the plodding Gordon apart from distance, punish his entries with knees and body kicks and stop him inside two rounds.
Final Gordon-Costa Prediction & Pick
Melquizael Costa is the pick to win impressively in his lightweight return because the gap in speed, athleticism and current durability between these two fighters is massive. At 30 years old, Costa has evolved into an elite, dynamic striker who just proved he could stop a notoriously unfinishable veteran like Dan Ige in the opening frame.
Jared Gordon is tough as nails and will always give an honest effort, especially fighting in his home state of New York. His path to making this competitive is to crowd Costa's kicks and replicate the grappling-heavy blueprint Thiago Moises used against the Brazilian years ago.
However, Costa is a vastly improved fighter since his short-notice UFC debut, having sharpened both his takedown defense and his opportunistic front-choke game during his six-fight winning streak. Meanwhile, Gordon at 38 years old moves on straight lines and has been finished in back-to-back bouts against Rafa Garcia and Jim Miller.
Expect Costa to shred Gordon's body and head with southpaw kicks from range, stuff the early takedown attempts and put the veteran away with strikes in the second round.
Final Jared Gordon-Melquizael Costa Prediction & Pick: Melquizael Costa (-410), UNDER 2.5 rounds (-140)