Indiana had not lost a game since December 2024, but they fell to Ohio State this past week. Now, Michigan will look to give them a second loss in a row. It is time to continue the NCAA Football odds series with an Indiana-Michigan prediction and pick.
Indiana enters the game at 6-1. They opened up with a 3-0 record in non-conference play, handing all three teams with ease. Then came Northwestern at home. Northwestern hung around all game, but came up short as Indiana won 29-23. The next week, Indiana dismantled Rutgers before visiting Nebraska. Once again, it was a tight game. The Cornhuskers had a 17-6 lead in the fourth quarter, but two Nick Marsh touchdowns gave Indiana the 20-17 win. Last week against Ohio State, they attempted another fourth-quarter comeback. A touchdown pass from Julian Sayin to Jeremiah Smith gave Ohio State a 1-15 lead. Josh Hoover found Marsh for a touchdown to make it 19-15. Hoover found Marsh again later on what could have been the go-ahead touchdown, but Marsh was out of bounds, and Ohio State won 19-15.
Meanwhile, Michigan is 4-2 on the year. They opened up 3-0 with a controversial win over Western Michigan and then a victory over Oklahoma. The first loss of the year for Michigan came at the hands of Iowa. Michigan has a 19-14 lead, but Iowa drove 91 yards in the last 1:46 of the game to score a game-winning touchdown as time expired. The next week, Michigan visited Minnesota and was up 14-7 at the end of the first half, but the offense stalled out. Michigan would not score points in the second half, on the way to a 20-14 loss. Last time out, the offense started bad again against Penn State. Michigan did not score in the first half, leading to Tommy Carr taking over at quarterback. Carr led three touchdown drives as Michigan won 21-18.
This will be the 74th meeting between Michigan and Indiana. Michigan leads with 62 wins to just 11 for Indiana. Indiana did win the last time the two met in 2024 in Bloomington. Indiana has not beaten Michigan in Ann Arbor since 1967.
Indiana vs. Michigan Odds
Indiana: -7 (-112)
Michigan: +7 (-108)
Over: 41.5 (-110)
Under: 41.5 (-110)
Watch Indiana-Michigan LIVE with fuboTV (free trial)Indiana vs. Michigan Key Injuries
Indiana- RB Khobie Martin (Probable)
Michigan- OL Andrew Sprague (Out), OL Ace Hamilton (Out), OL Brady Norton (Questionable), OL Andrew Babalola (Probable), OL Nathan Efobi (Probable), WR Kendrick Bell (Questionable), WR Braydon Alford (Questionable), DE Julius Holly (Questionable), TE Nick Marsh (Questionable)
Indiana vs. Michigan Betting Trends
– The Hoosiers are only 1-6 against the Spread this year, and have no covers when the spread is under ten points.
– Indiana is 1-1 against the spread on the road this year.
– The over is 3-3 for Indiana this year, including missing in each of the last two.
– Michigan is 2-3 against the spread.
– Michigan is 1-0 against the spread when an underdog, winning the game outright.
– The under has hit in five of six games for the Wolverines this year, including three straight.
Article Continues BelowKeys to Indiana vs. Michigan matchup
For Indiana, they need to protect Josh Hoover and maintain offensive rhythm. Indiana is 49th in the nation in sack rate, but is facing a pass rush that has been phenomenal so far this year. Josh Hoover has been solid this year, completing 63.9 percent of his passes for 1,660 yards and 18 touchdowns. He has also not been intercepted. Still, as seen against both Nebraska and Ohio State, if pressure can be put on Hoover, he is not nearly as good. Part of keeping pressure off the quarterback will be the running game. Turbo Richard has run for 643 yards and six scores, while Lee Beebe Jr. has run for 575 yards and four touchdowns. They need to play a big role in this one.
On defense, the Hoosiers will be looking to get pressure on freshman quarterback Tommy Carr, making his first start. Michigan has multiple offensive line injuries and has not protected the quarterback well this year. Meanwhile, the Indiana defense is 11th in the nation in sack rate. This is led by Tobi Osunsanmi, who has seven sacks this year and has been consistently in the backfield this year. Meanwhile, Stephen Daley has five sacks, while Mario Landino has four. The three have also caused a total of five forced fumbles, and considering Michigan has had trouble holding onto the ball, that could be a huge factor.
For Michigan, they have to get Carr comfortable, and that is going to start with a strong run game. The Michigan run attack has not been amazing this year. They are 22nd in the nation in the percetnage of plays that are runs, but are 69th in rushing yards per game and 74th in yards per run. Jordan Marshall leads the way. He has run the ball 69 times for 293 yards and four touchdowns. Meanwhile, Savion Hiter has run for 223 yards and two scores. It would not be surprising if Bryce Underwood still gets some snaps, considering he has also run for 223 yards and two scores.
On defense, Michigan needs to create a couple of turnovers. Indiana is third in the nation in the fewest amount of giveaways. Hoover has yet to throw an interception this year and has turned over the ball just twice this year. Meanwhile, Michigan takes the ball away 1.3 times per game this year. Considering Indiana has struggled to take the ball away, if Michigan can win the turnover battle, the short field will lead to points with Carr and could lead to a win. Chris Bracy has been great in this regard, with an interception and two forced fumbles this year.
Indiana vs. Michigan Prediction and Pick
Indiana has struggled to cover this year, and this is a home underdog situation. Michigan has been good at controlling the clock this year when they have held onto the ball. The second half of the Penn State game had a very different feel to the offense. While the offense finally began moving the ball, there was also much less of a concern for a backbreaking turnover, and even Savion Hiter ran better with Carr at quarterback. Meanwhile, these are two of the best defensive units in the nation, which is also going to keep scoring drives down. Both teams are Top 15 in the nation in opponent points per game, and that will not change in this one. The best play for the game is on the under, but with a low-scoring game, Michigan covers.
Final Indiana vs. Michigan Prediction and Pick: Michigan +7 (-108) and Under 41.5 (-110)