How Kimi Antonelli can clinch the F1 title at the Mexico City GP

Kimi Antonelli put one hand, and approximately four more fingers, with his win in Austin at the United States Grand Prix.

And as the Mercedes driver heads to Mexico for the Formula 1 Mexico City Grand Prix, he has a rather simple path to clinch his maiden F1 Drivers’ Championship.

Antonelli now sits atop the standings with 365 points, 123 points ahead of teammate George Russell (who has 242 points), and 124 points ahead of former Mercedes driver Lewis Hamilton, who has 241. With five races left, and a maximum of 125 points available, only these three drivers remain mathematically alive in the chase for the F1 Drivers’ Championship.

But the math highlights just how close he is to a title.

Here is how he can clinch it in Mexico City.

The simplest path for Antonelli is this: By finishing ninth or better in the Mexico City Grand Prix, he would clinch the F1 Drivers’ Championship, regardless of how Hamilton or Russell fare. For example, if Russell were to win in Mexico City, he would move to 267 points on the season, while a P9 for Antonelli would move him to 367.

A gap of 100 points, with a maximum of 100 points available over the final races currently scheduled.

However, Antonelli’s win in Austin was his ninth Grand Prix victory of the season. Should Russell win this weekend, it would bring his total to four, and even if he swept the rest of the season — and Antonelli failed to score a single point the rest of the way — Russell would finish with eight Grand Prix victories, and the two would finish tied with 367 points.

But Antonelli would win on countback, with nine Grand Prix victories to eight for Russell.

The math works in a similar fashion when it comes to Hamilton, but since the Ferrari driver is one more point behind Russell, Antonelli only needs to finish in P10 to clinch the title, provided it is Hamilton who reaches the top step in Mexico City. A P10 would move Antonelli to 366 points on the season, while a win for Hamilton would increase his total to 266.

Which brings us to the same tiebreaker scenario outlined above, only this time with Hamilton.

But the simplest way of thinking about this is: If Antonelli finishes ninth or better, he is the F1 Drivers’ Champion, regardless of who wins the race. If he finishes tenth, he will be crowned the F1 Drivers’ Champion if anyone but Russell wins the race. Because if Russell wins, he would advance to 267 points, and a P10 from Antonelli would move him to 366, a gap of just 99 points with a maximum of 100 points still available, keeping Russell mathematically viable for at least one more race.

Of note?

Antonelli has finished outside the points in just two Grands Prix this year.

However, there is still a way Antonelli can clinch the title regardless of where he finishes.

If someone other than Russell or Hamilton win in Mexico City.

The above scenarios all require Hamilton or Russell to win the Mexico City Grand Prix to extend the championship another week, provided Antonelli does not get the result he needs. But if, say, Max Verstappen were to win the Mexico City Grand Prix, Antonelli could still clinch the title even if he finishes outside of the points.

For example, say Verstappen wins, Russell finishes second, and Antonelli finishes outside of the points.

That would give Russell 18 points, moving him to 260 for the season. Antonelli would stay at 365, but would have a 105-point gap over Russell with four races left. The title would be his.

Of course, there is something of an elephant in the room.

There is a world where Antonelli has already, technically, clinched the title.

The final two races are set for Qatar and Abu Dhabi. While Formula 1 and the FIA maintain that those races are going ahead as scheduled, given ongoing hostilities in the region there is a chance those two races are canceled.

Meaning that just three races remain on the schedule: Mexico City, Brazil, and Las Vegas. If only three races are left on the schedule, that would mean there is a maximum of 75 points available.

With a lead of 123 points, Antonelli is already the F1 Drivers’ Champion in this scenario.

If, hypothetically, F1 and the FIA drop those two races but add a race in Imola, as has been reported as a possibility, that means there are four races remaining, and a maximum of 100 points available.

Again, with a lead of 123 points Antonellis is already the F1 Drivers’ Champion in this “Plan B” scenario.

Leadership believes those races can proceed as scheduled. But if changes are made, Antonelli could already be the champion.