The 2026-27 NBA season was projected to be abnormally competitive, as previously rebuilding teams turned the corner and new draft lottery rules gave all 30 franchises an incentive to win.

At the top of the standings, though, three juggernaut rosters towered above the rest: the Oklahoma City Thunder and San Antonio Spurs, who both won more than 60 games before clashing in a seven-game conference finals last season, and the defending champion New York Knicks, who reeled off arguably the most dominant stretch in NBA history en route to the title.

Those three teams were excellent last season, and they returned 14 of their combined 15 starters this fall. So even as the rest of the league's floor rose, the highest ceilings still appeared to reside in New York City and the Southwest.

But surprising developments have changed that narrative less than two weeks into the new season and challenged the triumvirate's hegemony atop the league. Most importantly, a wave of injuries to star players already has altered the league's most important races.

Jump to a section:
How title odds have shifted
The injured stars so far
Is the MVP race wide open?

Scuffling preseason favorites

Oklahoma City opened its season with a firm statement of intent, with 12-point wins over the Spurs and Nuggets -- possibly the Thunder's closest competition in the West.

Then disaster struck. Jalen Williams and Cason Wallace both suffered potentially season-ending injuries in the same game, and Alex Caruso sprained his right ankle the following night. At the same time, Chet Holmgren suffered a patellar tendon tear in his right knee, which will sideline him for at least two months

So Oklahoma City has played its past couple games without four of its top six players, to predictable results: a 24-point loss in Dallas followed by a 21-point loss in Houston. The Thunder were outscored in all eight quarters across those two defeats.

The team will theoretically improve from their current doldrums once Caruso and Holmgren return, but the Thunder are in deep trouble on the perimeter without Williams and Wallace. They look far away from meaningful contention given their horrid spate of injuries.

But Oklahoma City isn't the only preseason favorite with more concerns now than two weeks ago. The Knicks are 2-4 and needed two big comebacks against Detroit and Chicago just to pick up their two wins. And the Spurs started a comparatively better 4-2, but they've looked out of sorts against the toughest competition they've faced and needed overtime to beat the injury-wracked Jazz.

It's very early, and those teams still have plenty of time to round into their best shape. But the title race already looks more open.

According to preseason projections by ESPN's Basketball Power Index (BPI), the Thunder and Spurs combined for a 50% championship probability. Add in the Knicks at 8%, and BPI gave those three favorites a roughly three-fifths chance to win the title. Yet their combined odds have since fallen to just 38%, and that's with the assumption that Wallace and Holmgren return before the playoffs.

Meanwhile, a series of second-tier contenders have started strong, which should increase their confidence that they can close the gap to the Thunder, Spurs and Knicks. The Rockets lead the way with a 5-1 record including wins over Oklahoma City and San Antonio. And in the Eastern Conference, the 76ers, Pistons and Celtics started a combined 16-3 -- meaning those three teams have fewer combined losses than the Knicks have by themselves.

That trend also serves as an argument for teams with strong rosters and ample draft assets, such as Houston and Detroit, to seriously consider making in-season trades with an eye on the Finals.

If the Thunder, Spurs and Knicks were all fully healthy and running roughshod over everyone in their paths, there might be some merit to the idea of keeping one's powder dry rather than making futile trades to try to catch the leading contenders. But if those teams still look more vulnerable than expected in a few months, the deadline could pack a more potent punch.

Even more injuries

Other prospective contenders have also borne the brunt of early-season injuries -- though none to the extent of Oklahoma City's nightmare.

Players who have already missed multiple games this season include Williams, Wallace, Caruso, Holmgren, Coby White, Kon Knueppel, Cameron Johnson, Jalen Duren, Alperen Sengun, Tyrese Haliburton, Ivica Zubac, Anthony Edwards, Paolo Banchero, Jalen Suggs, Kawhi Leonard and Jaren Jackson Jr.

That's more than a full roster's worth of stars (or star role players) who have suffered injuries within the first two weeks of the new season.

Discussion around the league generally points to increased pace and stress on the body as a reason for these injuries, while understanding that they're a mix of soft tissue problems and flukes -- like the collisions that sidelined Williams and Wallace.

It's also clear that there are no quick fixes. The NBA isn't slowing down, and more radical proposals that would change the sport to reduce wear and tear -- from a shorter schedule to 40-minute games -- are equally unlikely to happen any time soon. The injury issue is a figurative pain point for the league and a literal pain point for the players who keep getting hurt.

A (potentially) wide-open MVP race

Looking ahead to the remaining five months of the regular season, it's not just the title race that has opened to new challengers. The MVP race could also devolve into a free-for-all with one more injury.

The two most recent MVPs, who have finished first and second in the voting in some order three years running, have scuffled to start this season, with numbers well below their recent norms. Shai Gilgeous-Alexander and Nikola Jokic perennially rank among the most productive, efficient stars in the league, but both have looked surprisingly mortal in the early going.

Put another way, Jokic and Gilgeous-Alexander finished first and second in player efficiency rating in each of the past two seasons, and they ranked first and third in 2023-24. Jokic has led the league in PER six years in a row.

Now, Jokic ranks 24th and Gilgeous-Alexander is 16th among qualified players in PER two weeks into this season.

Of course, these comparisons come after a very small sample of play -- but even then, the stars' relative struggles are unusual. Jokic, for instance, just completed his worst five-game stretch (as measured by box plus-minus) at any point in the season since 2020, before he won his first MVP.

For Gilgeous-Alexander, the Thunder's injury issues could counterintuitively give him a better chance to win his third straight MVP. Two-time winners are typically penalized -- if only unconsciously -- by voter fatigue, as no player has won three in a row since Larry Bird in the mid-'80s. However, if Gilgeous-Alexander can keep the Thunder near the top of the Western Conference standings and post his typically exemplary statistics without as much help from teammates, then he'd have a narrative boost to overcome that bias.

Yet if he and Jokic don't live up to the incredibly high standards they set while winning multiple MVPs apiece, then it seems far-fetched to think that either could claim another trophy this season.

That leaves Victor Wembanyama as the clear favorite, and betting odds reflect that status. He's responded by playing at an MVP level so far.

But remember, Wembanyama reached only the bare minimum number of games to qualify for awards last season, and he missed out in 2024-25. If he falls short of 65 games again, he could leave behind a truly wide-open race, with a whole host of viable second-tier candidates suddenly receiving real MVP consideration.

Could Luka Doncic finally receive his long-awaited MVP moment? Could Cade Cunningham, Jayson Tatum or Jalen Brunson become the first Eastern Conference perimeter players to win MVP since LeBron James in Miami? Could 19-year-old Cooper Flagg make a play at an historic award? (The answer is yes if he keeps dominating like he did in his first five games.)

The result is a season that brims with tremendous possibility -- even more than already seemed to be the case when the new year tipped off in October.