TORONTO -- The Blue Jays belong in the conversation for every top-end free agent, regardless of price. This offseason, that list begins with Tarik Skubal, one of the most dominant pitchers in the sport.
This organization is spending more than it ever has, enough to shake the “runner-up” tag which had been lazily slapped on them over the years. On top of Dylan Cease’s $210 million deal and Vladimir Guerrero Jr.’s $500 million mega-contract, they spent the two prior offseasons going deep on both Shohei Ohtani and Juan Soto.
The Blue Jays sit at the adults table, alongside the Dodgers, Phillies, Mets, Yankees and a few others. They have an “anything is possible” payroll, and they’ve shown they’re perfectly willing to pay for pitching, from Cease to Kevin Gausman and José Berríos.
With significant needs in their lineup, however, where Seiya Suzuki looks like a perfect match on paper, how aggressive should the Blue Jays be in their rotation?
What they’re working with
If the season started tomorrow, it’s: Dylan Cease, Trey Yesavage, José Soriano, Cody Ponce and potentially Spencer Miles, who is expected to convert from the bullpen.
This is a good starting point, but the group needs a higher ceiling and floor, especially after we saw the extent of injuries in 2026. Some of that will come internally, too, with a list of prospects that includes the following arms ending 2026 in Double-A or above: Nolan Perry (No. 2), Johnny King (No. 3), Gage Stanifer (No. 9), Jake Bloss (No. 11), Danny Thompson Jr. (No. 14), Daniel Guerra (No. 15), Chad Dallas (No. 22), John Klein (No. 29).
Add in Bowden Francis and Berríos, who are rehabbing from Tommy John and could return later in the season, and the Blue Jays have plenty of options here. They’re still eager to add established big-league talent, though, and that won’t come cheap.
Starting at the top: Skubal and Peralta
The MLB record for a pitcher’s annual salary is $43.3 million, which both Max Scherzer and Justin Verlander have hit. Skubal is positioned well to take a run at that number, which launches well beyond the $30 million annual salary they’re paying Cease.
The Blue Jays’ books look good, which is important to establish here. Beyond Cease and Guerrero, they don’t have any other massive commitments into the future, and there’s hope an improved farm system can help to supply depth more consistently. Broadly speaking, it’s felt like the Blue Jays prefer to stick with more traditional deals, which could land near eight years for Skubal, instead of the short-term, big-money deals which have become more popular recently.
Expect the Blue Jays to be involved on Skubal, because that’s the default by now. He’ll be 30 next season, owns two Cy Young Awards and his ERA has started with a two each of the past four seasons. He’s a true ace, elite by every definition of the word, but will the Blue Jays outbid the Dodgers and Mets here? A mid-range starter with more significant offensive upgrades could be the more valuable play.
Freddy Peralta is another name to consider, fresh off a run to the World Series with the Rays. Two months ago, before his incredible stretch run, Peralta lined up as a perfect bounce-back candidate for the Blue Jays with his durability and track record, but his price tag has skyrocketed.
More realistically: The mid-range options
The bargain bin doesn’t make much sense for Toronto, at least not until the annual depth signings closer to camp. This team still needs to have World Series expectations, and they don’t just need innings, they need high-end pitching.
Japanese righty Kaima Taira cracks that list, especially given the uncertainty around where his guaranteed money will land and his age at just 27, but the mid-range market is well-stocked with short-term options. If the Blue Jays don’t swing big on Skubal, they’d be wise to find “their guy” out of this group on a two- or three-year deal, similar to Chris Bassitt’s time in Toronto.
Old friend Gausman tops that list, if the Blue Jays are confident their former ace still has something in the tank, while Tyler Mahle is intriguing and has drawn their interest in the past. Sonny Gray, Foster Griffin and Shota Imanaga won’t wow you with the radar gun or their strikeout rates, but going back to Bassitt, the Blue Jays have been attracted to veterans with deep pitch mixes before.
The Blue Jays’ pitching development has made some great strides in the past 18 months, but that takes time, and a short-term veteran could be the perfect bridge to that.