UFC 334: Gane vs. Hokit kicks off the entire 13-fight card at Madison Square Garden with a competitive lightweight matchup between Evan Elder and 23-year-old Brazilian prospect Samuel Sanches. Check out our UFC 334 odds series for our Elder-Sanches prediction and pick.
Evan Elder (10-2) enters New York riding a three-fight UFC winning streak after starting his promotional run 0-2. Following a unanimous decision win over Genaro Valdez and a second-round arm-triangle submission of Darrius Flowers, the 29-year-old defeated Gauge Young via unanimous decision as he comes into his fight this weekend against Samuel Sanches.
Samuel Sanches (11-1) makes his highly anticipated UFC debut on a seven-fight winning streak. After stopping Evaldo dos Santos in the first round on the Brazilian circuit, the 23-year-old prospect earned his contract on the Contender Series by knocking out Chasen Blair in Round 1 as he comes into his fight this weekend against Evan Elder.
UFC 334 Odds, courtesy of DraftKings
UFC 334 Odds: Evan Elder-Samuel Sanches Odds
Evan Elder: -102
Samuel Sanches: -118
Over 2.5 rounds: -115
Under 2.5 rounds: -115
Watch sports LIVE with fuboTV (free trial)Why Evan Elder Will Win
Evan Elder holds a massive advantage in UFC experience, composure and three-round conditioning against a 23-year-old newcomer making his promotional debut under the bright lights of Madison Square Garden. Across five Octagon appearances, Elder has evolved from a raw regional fighter into a well-rounded, disciplined lightweight who knows how to win rounds.
Samuel Sanches is an explosive athlete, but he is still technically raw and tends to swing wildly for early knockouts. Furthermore, Sanches has not fought since earning his Contender Series contract against Chasen Blair in September 2025, meaning he is returning from a 14-month layoff following a cancelled bout earlier this year.
Elder is extremely durable—his only TKO loss came via a doctor stoppage cut in a war he was winning against Nazim Sadykhov—and he possesses solid offensive wrestling and submission skills. In his wins over Darrius Flowers and Gauge Young, Elder showed he can weather explosive power punchers and take over with his grappling and pace.
If Elder survives Sanches' wild first-round blitz, mixes in level changes and drags the young Brazilian into the second and third frames, Elder's veteran cardio will carry him to a decision win.
Why Samuel Sanches Will Win
Samuel Sanches brings electric physical gifts, a two-inch reach advantage and devastating first-round finishing power that can overwhelm Evan Elder before the American settles into the fight. At 23 years old, “The Prodigy” has finished nine of his 11 professional wins inside the distance, including eight by knockout and seven inside the very first round.
In his Contender Series victory over Chasen Blair, Sanches showcased blistering hand speed, brutal knees in the clinch and vicious killer instinct to put his opponent away in just over two minutes. Training out of the famed Galpao da Luta camp in Brazil, he fights with fearless aggression and throws heavy leather from bell to bell.
While Elder is a solid all-around fighter on a three-fight winning streak, he is very hittable in the pocket, as seen in his brawl with Genaro Valdez and his war with Nazim Sadykhov. Elder lacks elite head movement and often relies on his chin to absorb shots while stepping in to land his own counters.
Article Continues BelowAgainst a young, athletic powerhouse with a 74-inch reach like Sanches, trading in the pocket early is a recipe for getting clipped. Expect Sanches to hurt Elder early or outland him with heavier, more damaging strikes across three rounds.
Final Elder-Sanches Prediction & Pick
Evan Elder is the pick as a live even-money underdog because his five-fight UFC resume, well-rounded grappling and proven three-round gas tank give him the edge over a raw 23-year-old debutant. While oddsmakers flipped Samuel Sanches to a slight favorite based on his Contender Series highlight reel, Debuting at Madison Square Garden after a 14-month layoff is a tall order.
Sanches is undeniably dangerous for the first five minutes, where his 74-inch reach and wild, explosive hooks will test Elder's chin and defensive discipline. However, Elder has already survived pure power punchers like Darrius Flowers and Genaro Valdez by staying composed and mixing in his wrestling.
Sanches' lone career loss came via first-round submission, and swinging for the fences early against a durable Syndicate MMA product will quickly drain the young Brazilian's gas tank. Once Elder weathers the opening storm and forces Sanches to wrestle along the fence, the momentum will shift decisively in the American's favor.
Look for Elder to survive a lively first round, take control with his clinch work, takedowns and volume striking in rounds two and three and take home a unanimous decision victory.
Final Evan Elder-Samuel Sanches Prediction & Pick: Evan Elder (-102), OVER 2.5 rounds (-115)