Both the Chiefs (6-2) and the Falcons (3-6) meet Sunday afternoon in Atlanta. They are each within one half-game of first place in their respective divisions. The Broncos lead Kansas City in the AFC West while the Falcons are looking up at the Panthers and the Saints in the NFC South. This despite Atlanta having lost two in a row and the Chiefs two of their last three.
Kansas City is coming off a convincing 35-12 win over the New York Jets, a game that turned after the Chiefs trailed 12-7 in the second quarter. Patrick Mahomes completed 23 of 31 passes for 242 yards and two touchdowns, both scoring passes going to Kenneth Walker III, who was the offensive centerpiece with 102 rushing yards, 143 yards from scrimmage and three total touchdowns. Travis Kelce added 72 receiving yards and even scored on a one-yard run. The defense took over after halftime, holding New York scoreless in the final thirty minutes as the Chiefs pulled away with 21 unanswered second-half points. Kansas City also went 4-for-4 in the red zone, an encouraging development after back-to-back losses to Seattle and Denver. Mahomes did briefly leave the field after hurting his arm/elbow on a strip-sack but returned and finished the game. As a result, the injury report is worth following as gametime approaches.
Atlanta, meanwhile, returns home after a disappointing 34-17 loss to Cincinnati in Madrid, its second straight defeat following a 16-0 shutout loss at Tampa Bay. The Falcons opened strongly against the Bengals with an 80-yard drive resulting in a Michael Penix Jr. touchdown pass to Charlie Woerner. The scoring continued as they took a 10-7 lead later in the first quarter, but Cincinnati answered with 17 unanswered points in the second quarter and Atlanta never recovered. Penix finished 20-of-31 for 162 yards, one touchdown and one interception, while Bijan Robinson supplied the offense’s biggest bright spot with 100 rushing yards and a touchdown on 19 carries. Drake London caught five passes for 68 yards, but Atlanta committed 12 penalties for 88 yards and allowed Joe Burrow to throw three touchdown passes.
The central storyline from Atlanta’s perspective is will they be able to control the ball and keep Mahomes and co. off the field? The Falcons average 138.8 yards rushing per game. For Kansas City, it is about limiting Bijan Robinson and Atlanta’s rushing attack. The Chiefs have thrived against the run to date this season allowing just 96.3 yards on the ground per game.
These teams last met two seasons ago. Mercedes-Benz Stadium was the site and Kansas City won 22-17. Mahomes threw for 217 yards and two touchdowns, while Rashee Rice caught 12 passes for 110 yards and a score; Atlanta, then quarterbacked by Kirk Cousins, had a chance late but could not complete the comeback.
Let’s dive further into the numbers and see if we can’t find an additional sweat or two.
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Game Details and How to Watch: Chiefs vs. Falcons
- Date: Sunday, November 15, 2026
- Time: 1:00P
- Site: Mercedes-Benz Stadium
- City: Atlanta, GA
- TV/Streaming: CBS
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Latest Game Odd: Chiefs vs. Falcons
The latest odds as of Wednesday courtesy of DraftKings:
- Moneyline: Kansas City Chiefs (-185), Atlanta Falcons (+154)
- Spread: Chiefs -3.5
- Total: 45.5
Money has come in on the Falcons forcing the Spread down from where it opened which was KC -4.5. The Total has not budged from its opening.
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Expert Picks & Predictions: Chiefs vs. Falcons
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Our model calculates projections around each moneyline, spread and over/under bet for every game on the NFL calendar based on data points like past performance, player matchups, betting trends, and weather forecasts.
Once the model is finished running, we put its projection next to the latest betting lines for the game to arrive at a relative confidence level for each wager.
Here are the best bets our model is projecting for Sunday’s game between the Chiefs and the Falcons:
- Moneyline: NBC Sports is leaning towards a play on the Falcons on the Moneyline.
- Spread: NBC Sports is recommending a play on the Falcons +3.5.
- Total: NBC Sports is leaning towards a play on the Game Total UNDER 45.5.
Here’s why are leaning towards taking the Falcons and the Points:
Kansas City team has been genuinely mediocre on the road. The Chiefs are 3-8 (.273) on the road since the 2025 season — T-6th-worst in the NFL — compared to .692 at home. They’re also 2-11 (.154) when within seven points at the two-minute warning since 2025, the worst mark in football. That’s a team that does not close out tight games away from Arrowhead. Atlanta’s defense is better than they appear at first glance. The Falcons rank 10th in defensive DVOA (-4.7%), 6th in quarterback hits (33), 9th in quarterback hit rate (10.38%), and 6th in yards per reception allowed (10.9). On offense, they’ve also allowed opponents to pressure the quarterback on just 14.8% of pass attempts this season — best in the NFL.
Here’s why Kenneth Walker III Anytime Touchdown is our top Player Prop for this game:
The best prop on the board. Atlanta ranks 20th in rushing touchdowns allowed (1.11 per game) and 16th in carries allowed (26.89 per game) — they give up goal-line work. Walker has cleared this 0.5 touchdown number in 3 of his last five games. His projection sits at 0.9 touchdowns — well above the line. Kansas City ranks 5th in rushing touchdowns (1.25 per game) and 5th in rushing yards (137.75 per game) and 1st in yards per carry (5.08). Walker just ran for 102 yards on 18 carries against the Jets, and he’s the lead back in an offense that’s scoring 25.25 points a night.
Chiefs vs. Falcons: Betting Trends and Stats
- The Chiefs are 4-4 against the spread this season
- The Falcons are 3-6 against the spread this season
- Kansas City is 3-5 to the OVER this season
- Atlanta is 4-5 to the OVER this season
Quarterback Matchup: Chiefs vs. Falcons
- Chiefs: Patrick Mahomes
2026 Statistics: 8GP, 2037 Passing Yards, 14 TDs, 4 INTs, 101.8 RTG, Sacked 11 times - Falcons: Michael Penix Jr.
2026 Statistics: 7GP, 1444 Passing Yards, 10 TDs, 6 INTs, 88.4 RTG, Sacked 9 times
Chiefs vs. Falcons: Top Playmakers
Chiefs
- RB Kenneth Walker III
2026 Statistics: 8GP, 159 carries for 872 Yds, 7 TDs / 26 receptions on 35 targets for 172 Yds, 4 TDs - WR Josh Downs
2026 Statistics: 9GP, 33 receptions on 56 targets for 354 Yds, 1 TD - TE Travis Kelce
2026 Statistics: 8GP, 33 receptions on 49 targets for 482 Yds, 2 TDs
Falcons
- RB Bijan Robinson
2026 Statistics: 7GP, 169 carries for 880 Yds, 5 TDs / 31 receptions on 41 targets for 250 Yds, 1 TD - WR Drake London
2026 Statistics: 9GP, 44 receptions on 68 targets for 692 Yds, 1 TD - TE Kyle Pitts
2026 Statistics: 9GP, 25 receptions on 37 targets for 220 Yds, 4 TDs
Chiefs vs. Falcons: Injury Update
Chiefs
- QB Patrick Mahomes (elbow) is listed as questionable for Sunday’s game
- WR Xavier Worthy (hamstring) is listed as questionable for Sunday’s game
- OT Jaylon Moore (ankle) is listed as questionable for Sunday’s game
- DT Peter Woods (neck) is listed as questionable for Sunday’s game
- CB Mansoor Delane (shoulder) is listed as questionable for Sunday’s game
Falcons
- WR Zachariah Branch (hamstring) is listed as doubtful for Sunday’s game
- RB Brian Robinson Jr. (hamstring) was placed on IR and is OUT for Sunday’s game
- DT Anterio Thompson (undisclosed) has been ruled OUT for Sunday’s game
- LB James Pearce Jr. (back) is listed as questionable for Sunday’s game
- LB Divine Deablo (forearm) is listed as questionable for Sunday’s game
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