The winless Tampa Bay Buccaneers (0-4) visit AT&T Stadium to face the Dallas Cowboys (2-2), who are coming off a 34-30 comeback win in Houston. Tampa Bay is down to an undrafted rookie quarterback, and Dallas is a heavy favorite, but the line has been shrinking and there is a case for the underdog.

Buccaneers vs. Cowboys Odds

Buccaneers: +8.5

Cowboys: -8.5

Over: 47.5 points

Under: 47.5 points

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Buccaneers vs. Cowboys Key Injuries

Tampa Bay's problems start at quarterback. Baker Mayfield (right thumb) is out, so undrafted rookie Jalon Daniels will start for the second straight game after managing just two scoring drives in a loss to Green Bay.

The Bucs are also without safety Antoine Winfield Jr., who has a rib fracture and is expected to miss two to four weeks. Linebacker SirVocea Dennis (ankle/foot) and cornerback Benjamin Morrison (quad) are out as well.

Dallas is mostly healthy. Offensive tackle Drew Shelton (hamstring), linebacker DeMarvion Overshown (hamstring) and cornerback Cobie Durant (hamstring) are out. Wide receiver Jonathan Mingo (illness) and guard Tyler Smith (thumb) are questionable. CeeDee Lamb (thigh) and cornerback Joey Porter Jr. (ankle) were full participants Monday and Tuesday.

Buccaneers vs. Cowboys Betting Trends

The Cowboys are 3-1 against the spread, and all four of their games have gone over the total. Tampa Bay is winless against the spread, and two of its four games have gone over.

AT&T Stadium has favored overs. The Cowboys are 33-17-1 to the over there since 2020, a 66% clip.

Keys to Buccaneers vs. Cowboys Matchup

Tampa Bay's defense has been better than its record. The Bucs rank fifth in the NFL in EPA per play allowed (-0.066) and are among the league's best against the run (-0.253 rush EPA per play allowed). That could blunt Dallas' ground game and keep the underdog within reach.

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Dallas wins if it makes Daniels beat it. Without Winfield, Tampa Bay's secondary is thinner, which helps a passing attack built around Lamb and Pickens. The Cowboys' defense has also allowed plenty of points in a series of shootouts, so a rookie quarterback who can sustain drives is the best path to a backdoor cover.

Buccaneers vs. Cowboys Prediction and Pick

Dallas has the better quarterback, the healthier roster and home-field advantage against a winless team playing a rookie passer on a short week. Tampa Bay's efficient defense and the number shrinking to about a touchdown keep this from being an easy lay.

The Cowboys should win, but the Bucs' run defense and Dallas' leaky defense make a margin near the number likely. The best play is Buccaneers +8.5, and the over has support given Dallas' trends.

Take the Cowboys to win and the Buccaneers to cover.

Prediction: Cowboys 27, Buccaneers 20