The Tampa Bay Buccaneers looked like one of the laughingstocks of the NFL at the start of the season, but Todd Bowles quietly has his team playing some very good football. Tampa Bay has now won three of its last four games and is right back in the NFC South race.
On Sunday night in Week 9, the Bucs will get a test that will prove if they are truly the real deal or not. The Chicago Bears, arguably the hottest team in the NFL, will welcome Todd Bowles and company to Soldier Field for an NFC tilt that has massive playoff implications on both sides.
The Bears defense has been getting a lot of attention after the blockbuster trade that landed them All-Pro defensive tackle Jeffery Simmons. While Simmons had a massive impact in the Bears' 34-17 win over the Seattle Seahawks on Monday night and looks like a transformative piece for the Chicago defense, the offense is still where the Bears make their money. Caleb Williams and Ben Johnson form one of the best QB-head coach duos in all of football, and the Bears have one of the best units in the NFL on that side of the ball.
It will be strength on strength when the Bears have the ball on Sunday night, as the Buccaneers have become one of the best defenses in the NFL over the last few weeks. In Week 8 in a monsoon, the Bucs picked off Michael Penix Jr. four times in a 16-0 win where Baker Mayfield didn't complete a single pass.
How will both of these elite units try to get after each other, and who has the advantage on Sunday night?
The Bucs are elite against the run
As we noted last week when previewing Bears-Seahawks, Ben Johnson wants to build his entire offense off of the foundation that is the running game. The Bears rush for the second-most yards per game in the NFL, behind only the Buccaneers, and they use that weapon to stay ahead of the chains.
The Bears have been doing damage on the ground primarily on the strength of D'Andre Swift. Kyle Monangai and Swift normally form one of the best running back duos in football, but the former has been out with a toe injury and it looks like he might miss another game on Sunday.
Johnson is known primarily for his outside zone run schemes and his pin-and-pull concepts, and that is primarily what the Bears like to get to in order to get their production on the ground.
The numbers bear that out. The Bears have ranked in the middle of the pack this season on runs between the tackles, notching a -0.12 EPA per rush and just a 38.2% success rate on those plays per Next Gen Stats. On runs outside the tackles, however, the Bears are up to a 43.3% success rate and a +0.01 EPA per rush, so it's clear where their bread is buttered.
That's great news when going against a Buccaneers team that has Vita Vea in the middle, one of the best run-stuffing nose tackles of his generation. Vea is a walking elite run defense, and the Bucs have been very tough to run the football against ever since drafting him back in 2018.
The Bucs' numbers when it comes to run defense speak for themselves. They are giving up the second-fewest yards per game on the ground. Their stuff rate, a tick over 20%, is sixth in the NFL. Tampa Bay is allowing -0.13 EPA per rush, the third-best mark in the NFL per Next Gen Stats.
When you narrow it down to runs in between the tackles, the numbers become even more impressive. On those plays, Todd Bowles' group is tied for second in EPA per rush allowed, second in yards per rush allowed and fifth in stuff rate. That all boils down to Vea and the impact that he has as a force in the middle of the defensive line.
When teams try to run outside on the Buccaneers, however, they are usually able to find a little bit more success. The Bucs rank just 15th in yards per rush allowed (4.4) on those plays and 16th in EPA per rush allowed (-0.06). That is already right in the Bears' comfort zone, so expect Johnson and company to go to that well over and over on Sunday night.
Caleb Williams is becoming a star, but a big test awaits
Caleb Williams has truly been one of the elite quarterbacks in the NFL so far this season, and the numbers show it. Williams is third in the NFL in EPA per dropback at +0.22, and while his counting stats aren't as high as some others due to the time he missed with a hamstring injury, the impact that he has when he is on the field is clear.
Williams is more comfortable in Johnson's offense this season and is pushing the ball down the field when it's available, but his completion percentage is up over 70% this season after being a big talking point all summer long.
Even though he is eating his vegetables more often, Williams hasn't lost the playmaking ability that made him such a special prospect coming out of college. Williams' time to throw this season is 3.24 seconds, the highest number in the NFL. Not only is he extending plays with his legs outside of the pocket, but he has become elite at moving in the pocket to avoid the rush and manipulate throwing lanes to get the ball downfield late in the down.
It will be very interesting to see how Williams' tendency to hold onto the ball fares against a Buccaneers defense that has punished quarterbacks for doing just that this season. Against passes where QBs have held the ball for over 2.5 seconds this season, the Buccaneers are allowing -0.33 EPA per dropback (fourth in NFL).
A lot of that comes from Bowles' aggressive nature and his desire to get pressure on the quarterback in a hurry. Bowles and the Bucs have the third-highest blitz rate in the league at 40.2% and the fourth-lowest time to pressure at just 2.52 seconds, so opposing QBs have been under siege when Tampa has dialed up the pressure this year.
The blitz might not be a great strategy for the Bucs in this one against Williams, who has mostly shredded teams when they have blitzed him so far this season. Against the blitz, the former No. 1 overall pick is 44-for-75 with 560 yards, four touchdowns and one interception, and his +0.10 EPA per dropback ranks eighth in the NFL on those plays.
Bowles is notably stubborn with his identity on defense, and it has worked like a charm to get Tampa Bay back into the NFC South race. Which side wins when Tampa tries to heat Williams up will go a long way toward deciding who gets the win on Sunday night.