The NFL’s oldest rivalry renews Sunday at Lambeau Field as the Chicago Bears (3-1) travel to Green Bay to face the Packers (2-2) in a pivotal NFC North matchup. Chicago enters Week 5 sitting second in the division behind the undefeated Vikings, while Green Bay is looking to stay within a couple games of the division lead. This is the first time these teams have met since the Bears’ win over the Packers in the Wild Card round of the Playoffs, 31-27, last postseason.
The Bears come in riding back-to-back wins including a dominant 23-12 victory over the Jets this past Sunday. It is an understatement to say Chicago’s defense controlled the game. The Jets ran just 32 plays in the game while the Bears had 34 first downs. The Bears held the ball for 42:45 for the game. The week before, the Bears dominated the Eagles 27-7. Green Bay, meanwhile, snapped a two-game skid Sunday with a hard-fought 17-14 road win over the Buccaneers. The Packers led 17-7 after three quarters and the defense held the fort in the final quarter to preserve the win. Jordan Love threw for 197 yards and two touchdowns as the Packers survived a true rock fight. It was a satisfying result after suffering a 35-14 smack the previous week against the Falcons.
As is the case most weeks in the NFL, quarterback play will be one of the biggest storylines. Chicago will be without QB1 Caleb Williams (hamstring) and so Tyson Bagent us expected to step under center. Green Bay counters with Jordan Love, who has thrown for 1,041 yards and eight touchdowns through four games. Love’s connection with Christian Watson (331yds, 4 TDs) has been the focal point of the Packers’ passing game and will certainly be a matchup Green Bay will target against the Bears.
The Bears will take the field with momentum, one of the league’s best point differentials, and the confidence that comes from taking the last two meetings between these rivals. Green Bay, however, has an opportunity to make a statement at home, even its record within the division and move to a game over .500 overall.
Let’s dive into the numbers and see if we can’t find an additional sweat or two.
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Game Details and How to Watch: Bears vs. Packers
- Date: Sunday, October 11, 2026
- Time: 1PM ET
- Site: Lambeau Field
- City: Green Bay, WI
- TV/Streaming: FOX
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Latest Game Odds: Bears vs. Packers
The latest odds as of Monday courtesy of DraftKings:
- Moneyline: Chicago Bears (-148), Green Bay Packers (+124)
- Spread: Bears -2.5
- Total: 44.5
The Total has plummeted since opening at 49.5. The Spread has flipped from Green Bay -3.5 when the line first dropped to the Bears now being favored by 2.5.
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Expert picks & predictions for Bears vs. Packers
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Our model calculates projections around each moneyline, spread and over/under bet for every game on the NFL calendar based on data points like past performance, player matchups, betting trends, and weather forecasts.
Once the model is finished running, we put its projection next to the latest betting lines for the game to arrive at a relative confidence level for each wager.
Here are the best bets our model is projecting for Sunday’s game between the Bears and the Packers:
- Moneyline: NBC Sports is leaning towards a play on the Bears on the Moneyline
- Spread: NBC Sports is leaning towards a play on the Bears -2.5.
- Total: NBC Sports is recommending a play on the Total UNDER 44.5.
The single most important factor in this game is how bad the Packers’ offense has been without Josh Jacobs (susp.), and the numbers are genuinely alarming. Green Bay is averaging just 58 rushing yards per game — by far the worst mark in the league, and the second-worst team is at 81. This is an offense that struggles to sustain drives, and it’s facing a Bears defense that has been one of the best in football this season.
As noted, the Bears’ defense has been suffocating allowing just 16.2 points per game this season. It’s a defense that takes away the pass and forces teams to grind out drives. Against a Packers offense that is dead last in rushing and has to overload the passing game, the Bears’ ball-hawking secondary is a nightmare matchup. Love has thrown an interception in each of his last two games, and he’s facing a defense that led the league in picks last season.
Here’s the counterintuitive part: even though Chicago is a 2.5-point favorite, their offense isn’t built to pile up points through the air. The Bears lead the league in rushing at 196.2 yards per game, and both Kyle Monangai and D’Andre Swift have 300+ yards through four weeks. Against the Jets this past weekend, Chicago owned the football for nearly 43 minutes of game clock and ran a whopping 89 offensive plays to New York’s 32.
That ultimately is the key to the Under cashing. The Bears are going to run the ball, eat clock, and keep the Packers’ offense off the field. Against a Green Bay defense that ranks 23rd in carries allowed (28.0 per game) and 12th in yards per carry allowed (4.2), Chicago should be able to move the ball on the ground — but that’s exactly how you shorten the game and limit possessions.
Bears vs. Packers: Betting Trends and Stats
- The Packers are 1-3 against the spread this season
- The Bears are 3-1 against the spread this season
- Green Bay is 2-2 to the OVER this season
- Chicago is 1-3 to the OVER this season
Quarterback matchup: Bears vs. Packers
- Chicago: Tyson Bagent
2026 Statistics: 3GP, 322 Passing Yards, 0 TDs, 1 INT, 81.7 RTG, Sacked 2 times - Green Bay: Jordan Love
2026 Statistics: 4GP, 1,041 Passing Yards, 8 TDs, 3 INTs, 86.5 RTG, Sacked 8 times
Bears vs. Packers: Top Playmakers
Bears
- RB Kyle Monanhai
2026 Statistics: 4GP, 60 carries for 324 Yds, 3 TDs / 5 receptions on 5 targets for 39 Yds, 0 TDs - WR Luther Burden III
2026 Statistics: 4GP, 19 receptions on 29 targets for 219 Yds, 1 TD / 3 carries for 20 Yds, 0 TDs - WR Kalif Raymond
2026 Statistics: 4GP, 21 receptions on 23 targets for 220 Yds, 1 TD
Packers
- WR Christian Watson
2026 Statistics: 4GP, 20 receptions on 32 targets for 331 Yds, 4 TDs - RB Marshawn Lloyd
2026 Statistics: 4GP, 30 carries for 81 Yds, 0 TDs / 9 receptions on 11 targets for 49 Yds, 1 TD - TE Tucker Kraft
2026 Statistics: 4GP, 15 receptions on 24 targets for 148 Yds, 1 TD
Bears vs. Packers: Injury Update
Bears
- QB Caleb Williams (hamstring) is listed as OUT for Sunday’s game
- RB Kyle Monangai (thumb) is listed as questionable for Sunday’s game
- LT Ozzy Trapilo (undisclosed) was inactive this past Sunday and is questionable for Sunday’s game
- DE James Lynch (undisclosed) was inactive this past Sunday and is questionable for Sunday’s game
- NB Cam Lewis (hip) was inactive this past Sunday and is questionable for Sunday’s game
- DT Jayden Loving (undisclosed) was inactive this past Sunday and is questionable for Sunday’s game
- DT Shemar Turner (knee) was inactive this past Sunday and is questionable for Sunday’s game
- LB Noah Sewell (Achilles) was inactive this past Sunday and is questionable for Sunday’s game
- NB Kyler Gordon (calf) was inactive this past Sunday and is questionable for Sunday’s game
Packers
- CB Brandon Cisse (neck/concussion) is listed as questionable for Sunday’s game
- LG Aaron Banks (toe/knee) was inactive this past Sunday and is questionable for Sunday’s game
- RG Kevin Zeitler (undisclosed) was inactive this past Sunday and is questionable for Sunday’s game
- OL Jacob Monk (undisclosed) was inactive this past Sunday and is questionable for Sunday’s game
- LB Edgerrin Cooper (concussion/shoulder) was inactive this past Sunday and is questionable for Sunday’s game
- DE Warren Brinson (calf/groin) was placed on IR this past weekend and is therefore OUT for Sunday’s game
- DT Anthony Campbell (undisclosed) was inactive this past Sunday and is questionable for Sunday’s game
- DE Micah Parsons (knee) was inactive this past Sunday and is questionable for Sunday’s game
- RB Chris Brooks (ankle) is questionable for Sunday’s game
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