Tennessee looks to rebound from a loss to Texas as they host SEC foe Auburn on Saturday. It is time to continue the NCAA Football odds series with an Auburn-Tennessee prediction and pick.
Auburn comes into the game at 3-1. It hasn't been an easy three wins, though. In the opening game of the season, they faced Baylor. After taking the lead with 3:21 left to go, Baylor drove the field and scored with nine seconds left. Instead of tying the game, the Bears went for two, coming up short as Auburn won 17-16. The next week, Auburn beat Southern Miss 43-8. Then, Florida came to town. Jadan Baugh dominated the game for Florida, running for 162 yards and three touchdowns. Auburn scored late to make the score more respectable, but lost 44-39. Last time out, they faced Vanderbilt. The offense started strong, building a 14-3 lead, but the team slowed down in the second half. They were able to hold off the Vanderbilt comeback, winning 21-15.
Meanwhile, Tennessee is also 3-1 on the season. They opened up with a win over Furman, 56-9, before beating Georgia Tech 45-24 on the road. The Vols would then take care of Kennesaw State 42-9. Last time out, Tennessee faced top-ranked Texas. They were down ten points late in the game, but drove the field to make it a three-point game with 1:22 left. Tennessee then recovered an onside kick, which was determined not to have been legal after the game. It did not matter in the grand scheme, as Tennessee was unable to tie the game and lost 20-17.
This will be the 55th meeting between Auburn and Tennessee. Auburn leads the all-time series with 29 wins, while Tennessee has 22 and there have been three ties. Auburn has won seven ofthe last eight, including when they met last in 2020. One of the wins was the 2004 SEC Championship Game, and it was the second time Auburn beat Tennessee that year.
Auburn vs. Tennessee State Odds
Auburn: +7 (-110)
Tennessee: -7 (-110)
Over: 53.5 (-115)
Under: 53.5 (-105)
Watch Auburn-Tennessee LIVE with fuboTV (free trial)Auburn vs.Tennessee Key Injuries
Auburn- OL Tai Buster (Out), TE Hunter Herring (Out)
Tennessee- TE Ethan Davis (Out), WR Joakim Dodson (Out), LB Jaedon Harmon (Out), DB Edrees Farooq (Out), DB Dylan Lewis (Out), DL Kedric Golston II (Out), OL Wendell Moe Jr. (Out), RB Javin Gordon (Doubtful), OL Shamuard Umarov (Questionable), DL Nathan Robinson (Probable)
Auburn vs. Tennessee Betting Trends
– The Tigers are 1-3 against the spread this year, but have yet to play a true road game this year.
– Auburn is 0-2 against the spread in SEC play, and 0-1 as an underdog.
Article Continues Below– The under has hit in three of four games this year for Auburn.
– Tennessee is also 2-2 against the spread, including going 1-2 at home this year.
– Tennessee is 1-2 against the spread as the favorite.
– The under has hit in three of four games for the Volunteers this year.
Keys to Auburn vs. Tennessee matchup
On offense, Auburn has to protect Byrum Brown. That is easier said than done for a quarterback who likes to break contain and make plays with his feet. Brown has been sacked 14 times already this year, and currently is facing pressure on a third of his dropbacks. Still, Brown has done well with the pressure. He has completed 82 of 126 passes overall, for 896 yards with six touchdowns. He has also run for 237 yards and three scores. Regardless, he has five interceptions, which have been a major knock on him this year. Considering Tennessee is 12th in the nation in sack rate and 36th in interception rate, the offensive line needs to be at its best in this one.
On defense, Auburn needs to create short fields. They are 37th in the nation in takeaways per game so far this year. Andrew Jordan Jr. already has two interceptions this year, with one returned for a touchdown. Meanwhile, De'Shawn Womack, Jared Smith, and Sylvester Reed-Smith all have interceptions. The team has also recovered two fumbles. While the Tigers have been solid at creating turnovers, Tennessee does not give away the ball. They have turned the ball over just once this year, and Faizon Brandon has not thrown a single interception.
For the Tennessee offense, it is going to all start on the ground. The ground game for the Volts has been phenomenal this year, sitting 19th in the nation in yards per game. DeSean Bishop has run for 320 yards with four touchdowns, while Duane Morris has 267 yards and two scores. Further, quarterback Faizon Brandon has been showing off his legs some, with 139 yards and three touchdowns. His total would be much higher, but he was sacked ten times against Texas, running the total down some. Meanwhile, while Auburn can generate some quarterback pressure, they have not been great against the run. The Tigers are 49th in the nation against the ground game this year.
On defense for Tennessee, it is all about the trio of Mariyon Dye, Xavier Gilliam, and Tyree Weathersby. Dye and Gilliam already have four sacks each, while Weathersby has 3.5. Tennessee is getting home to the quarterback on 11.34 percent of the opposing QBs' dropbacks. Meanwhile, Gilliam has been in the backfield all year. He has ten quarterback pressures already, while Dye and Weathersby could reach ten on the year in this game. Still, with Brown on the other side, they have to keep gap integrity and not let the Auburn quarterback break contain, making plays with his legs.
Auburn vs. Tennessee Prediction and Pick
Tennessee is averaging 40 points per game this year, backed by a great running game and the best red zone offense in the nation. Meanwhile, the defense is giving up just 15.5 points per game, which is 27th in the nation. Auburn has shown that they can get gashed by the run. In the loss to Florida, they gave up 243 yards on the ground. Meanwhile, Tennessee just held Texas to 262 total yards and forced two turnovers. The Texas offense is much better than that of Auburn, and Tennessee should have no problem slowing them down. Tennessee wins big in this one, but the under hits as Auburn struggled to find points.
Final Auburn vs. Tennessee Prediction and Pick: Tennessee -7 (-110) and under 53.5 (-105)