Mississippi State continues to be one of the more surprising teams in college football, led by their star quarterback Kamario Taylor. Now, he will need to put on another big-time performance, as Alabama comes to town on Saturday. It is time to continue the NCAA Football odds series with an Alabama-Mississippi State prediction and pick.
Alabama comes into the game sitting at 4-0. They opened the first three games of the season slowly. Against East Carolina, it was a 17-7 game in the second quarter until the offense took off. Alabama won the game 48-10. Against Kentucky, Alabama was down 17-13 at the end of the first half, but three third-quarter scores changed the game. They would go on to win 45-17. The Tide would be down 21-6 in the second quarter against Florida State, and down 21-19 at the half before winning the game 50-36. The slow start led to boos from Alabama fans during the game agaisnt the Seminoles. Last time out, Alabama played their most complete game. They scored two touchdowns in the first quarter and built a 35-10 lead heading into the halftime break agaisnt South Carolina. They would go on to win 49-18 to move to 4-0 on the year.
Meanwhile, Mississippi State is also 4-0 this year. They opened the season with two dominating performances. First, Miss State took a 62-13 win over UL Monroe before a 38-13 win on the road against Minnesota. They then hit the road to open SEC play. Against South Carolina on the road, they would be down 16-0 early and down 23-14 at the end of the first half. The Bulldogs would crawl back and go on to win the game 41-34. Last time out, they faced Missouri. Miss State was down 24-17 going into the fourth quarter, but a touchdown run by Fluff Bothwell and a TD pass from Taylor led them to a 31-24 win.
This will be the 109th meeting between the two teams, dating back to 1896. Alabama has 87 wins, with one vacated. Meanwhile, Mississippi State has 18, and there have been three ties. Alabama has won 16 straight between the two teams, including a 2014 matchup when Alabama was ranked fifth and Mississippi State was the top-ranked team in the nation.
Alabama vs. Mississippi State Odds
Alabama: -5.5 (-112)
Mississippi State: +5.5 (-108)
Over: 60.5 (-108)
Under: 60.5 (-112)
Watch Alabama-Mississippi State LIVE with fuboTV (free trial)Alabama vs. Mississippi State Key Injuries
Alabama- LB Justin Hill (Out), LB Desmond Umeozulu (Out), DB Jorden Edmonds (Out), LB Cayden Jones (Out), DB Nick Sherman (Out), Jeremiah Beaman (Out), OL Jayvin James (Questionable), DB Zavier Mincey (Probable)
Mississippi State- WR Ayden Williams (Out), DL Trevion Williams (Out), DL Diesel Moye (Out), LB Zakari Tillman (Questionable), S Isaac Smith (Probable), RB Fluff Bothwell (Probable)
Alabama vs. Mississippi State Betting Trends
– The Crimson Tide are 3-1 against the spread this year, including 1-0 on the road.
– Alabama is 2-0 against the spread in SEC play.
Article Continues Below– The over has hit in all four games this year for Alabama.
– Mississippi State is also 4-0 against the spread, including winning outright the only time they were an underdog.
– Mississippi State is 2-0 against the spread at home this year.
– The under has hit in two of four games for the Bulldogs this year.
Keys to Alabama vs. Mississippi State matchup
For Alabama, one of the biggest keys is going to be the line of scrimmage. It starts with controlling the line in the run game. Daniel Hill has run for 225 yards with four touchdowns so far this year. When Alabama has struggled this year early in games, Hill has struggled to find running room. He is averaging 4.9 yards per carry, but he is averaging just four yards per carry in the first quarter and has just one first-down run. Meanwhile, when Keelon Russel has struggled, it has also been because of pressure. Both interceptions he has thrown this year have come in the first quarter, and both have been under pressure on long distances to get the first down. If Alabama cannot control the line of scrimmage, it could lead to the offense sputtering.
On defense, Alabama needs to win on first down. Mississippi State is 14th in the nation on third-down conversions so far this year, and many of their successful conversions have been on short down and distances. Alabama has been great on third downs on defense, sitting fourth in opponent third-down rate. A major part of that is their play against the run. Alabama is 19th in the nation in opponent yards per rush this year. Another part is keeping mistakes at a minimum. They are 54th in the nation in penalties per game, but giving Miss State extra yardage on early downs will lead to Bulldog points.
Meanwhile, Mississippi State is all about keeping in offensive rhythm. Komario Taylor has been a star when the offense is running in rhythm. He has thrown for 1,192 yards with 14 touchdowns while having just two interceptions. Still, he has racked up these yards through short and intermediate passes, with an average depth of target under ten yards this year. What helps is the run game keeping the defense honest. That has been done by Fluff Bothwell. He has run for 402 yards this season with three touchdowns. He has also run for over 100 yards in each of the last three games.
On defense, the Bulldogs have to create turnovers toget shortfields. This is something they have not done well this year, creating just two turnovers in four games so far. Alabama will give the ball away, though. They are 19th in the nation in turnover margin, but still average a turnover per contest. If the offense can get short fields, they have a better chance of coming away with touchdowns against this tough Alabama red zone defense, which could put them in a situation to pull off the upset.
Alabama vs. Mississippi State Prediction and Pick
Both offensive units rank in the top 15 in scoring this year, while both play at a fast pace. While both teams have been solid on defense, they have also both shown that they will give up points. Alabama did just that, giving up 36 points to Florida State, while Mississippi State did that against South Carolina. Considering that multiple games for both teams have seen the total go over, the trend and statistics back up that being the case again here. Meanwhile, Mississippi State being at home is going to be a massive advantage. Miss State fans just set a record for the most cowbells ringing at the same time during their last home game. That was against Missouri, not hated Alabama. Expect fans to play a part in this game, which could hinder Alabama early. Mississippi State will take the early lead in this one and keep it tight, but fall late to Alabama.
Final Alabama vs. Mississippi State Prediction and Pick: Mississippi State +5.5 (-108) and Over 60.5 (-108)