The first five weeks of the college football season have been fun, but now it's time to get serious. It's Georgia-Bama time. OU-Texas time. USC-Penn State might not be as big as it seemed it would be, but that's fine -- UCLA-Oregon and Nebraska-Indiana are much bigger!
Week 6 gives us some big-time matchups in big-time Big Ten and SEC venues (and, in at least one case, with big-time weather). Meanwhile, the Big 12 will separate some wheat from chaff; both North Dakota State and Boise State face stiff tests in the Group of 6; Friday night should offer clarity on Florida State's rebound hopes and Iowa's potential playoff push; Missouri looks to avoid the SEC's Main Character Curse; the race for the ACC's No. 2 spot heats up; Jeremiah Smith goes for a third straight 200-yard game; and at the smaller-school level we get a top-10 battle in FCS and a top-2 battle in Division III.
Are you out of breath yet? Week 6 is loaded! Here's everything you need to follow.
All times Eastern.
A helmet game weekend in the SEC
We're through only 19 of 72 SEC conference games, and we're already down to only three unbeaten teams in league play: Alabama, Georgia and Texas. At most, we'll have only two left after Saturday. Even if heavy rain impacts Georgia-Bama and Oklahoma's cruddy offense tamps down the OU-Texas excitement, we still have a huge pair of helmet games lined up Saturday, plus a huge trip north for top-10 LSU.
No. 2 Georgia at No. 6 Alabama (7:30 p.m., ABC)
All the greats have their bogey team. Tom Brady's New England Patriots had the New York Giants. Bayern Munich has Borussia Mönchengladbach. And evidently Kirby Smart's Georgia has Alabama. Granted, Bama is probably too good to be a true bogey, but since the start of 2017, Smart's Bulldogs are 114-16 overall -- 2-7 against the Crimson Tide and 112-9 against everyone else.
Smart appears to be fielding his best Georgia team since 2023. The Dawgs have found a level of explosiveness that they misplaced in recent years, and their run defense is absolutely ruthless. There have been some glitches in pass defense, but nothing overly worrisome -- they're still 11th in yards allowed per dropback. They've won their first three SEC games by an average of 41-15.
Granted, this also looks like the best Bama team since about 2022. Even with a defense that also gives up some big plays, the Tide are combining stellar run defense with maybe the most high-upside offense in the country. Keelon Russell is nearly on pace to combine 4,000 passing yards with 800 non-sack rushing yards, and he has unlocked massive potential from the receiver duo of Ryan Coleman-Williams and Lotzeir Brooks (combined: 728 yards, 17.8 per catch). The Tide have scored at least 45 points in every game.
Georgia has been dominant from the start, and Bama is improving rapidly. This is the perfect time for them to meet, aside from that whole "The weather might be absolutely atrocious" thing. The current forecast suggests the effects of Hurricane Isaias might peak earlier Saturday and slow a bit by the evening. Here's to hoping. Then again, with the way these teams are playing, even if this game is messy and sloppy, we might have another couple of Georgia-Bama games to look forward to this season.
Current line: Bama -1.5 (flipped from UGA -1.5 on Sunday) | SP+ projection: Georgia by 2.5 | FPI projection: Bama by 0.9
No. 1 Texas vs. Oklahoma (3:30 p.m., ABC)
Oklahoma's offense is both bad and unlucky. Quarterback John Mateer and the Sooners rank 112th in both yards per play and points per drive, and their injury list is enormous. They're also experiencing some of the worst turnovers luck imaginable -- based on typical averages for fumble recoveries and INT-to-breakup ratios, they should have expected about 5.3 turnovers so far this year; they've instead committed 10.
The OU defense remains fantastic, and with just a little help it could give the Sooners a puncher's chance against Texas and its increasingly wobbly attack.
Arch Manning's productivity has been decreasing by the week, at least in part because Texas' multimillion-dollar run game isn't performing any better than last year's. Texas ranks 120th in yards per carry, not including sacks (4.3); running back Hollywood Smothers has struggled with injury, and the offensive line hasn't improved this season as hoped.
These struggles have created more second- and third-and-longs for Manning -- and, therefore, more blitzes. He's not handling it well: Against the blitz he ranks 84th in raw QBR (61.9), 91st in yards per dropback (5.8), 117th in sack rate (12.5%) and 124th in sacks per pressure (38.5%).
Oklahoma has the best sack rate in the country, by the way.
Again, this matters only if the Sooners can score. Texas is coming off a ridiculously disruptive performance against Tennessee in Knoxville, and Will Muschamp's defense is up to fifth in points allowed per drive. The Longhorns' run defense is merely good, not great, but that won't matter Saturday -- OU doesn't have a run game.
Current line: UT by 7.5 (down from -9.5) | SP+ projection: UT by 9.9 | FPI projection: UT by 14.9
No. 10 LSU at Kentucky (7 p.m., ESPN)
LSU has scored at least 35 points in four of five games and has allowed 14 or fewer four times. Other than the rough trip to Ole Miss, Lane Kiffin's Tigers have mostly looked the part in 2026.
Their second road trip is a tricky one. It looks like it will be a rainy evening in Lexington, and Kentucky boasts both a super-physical run game and a defense that creates loads of turnover opportunities. The Wildcats are just about the worst team in the country on third downs -- 138th in conversion rate on offense, 123rd on defense -- but they've still beaten Texas A&M and South Carolina. LSU's A-game takes Kentucky down, but the Wildcats are resourceful enough to make this messy if Sam Leavitt starts turning the ball over.
Current line: LSU -8.5 (down from -10) | SP+ projection: LSU by 13.0 | FPI projection: LSU by 9.6
Prove-It Week in the Big Ten
White Out in Happy Valley is a desperation game for Lincoln Riley and USC, but it's only the third-biggest Big Ten game of the weekend. UCLA and Nebraska, both unbeaten and excellent against lesser competition, get their big national auditions -- UCLA will try to beat Oregon in Eugene for the first time since 2004, and Nebraska will try to beat a defending national champion for the first time since 2001.
No. 21 UCLA at No. 13 Oregon (3:30 p.m., CBS)
UCLA hasn't always looked as good as it did in its 54-3 cross-country win over Maryland, but the Bruins have started 4-0 by leaning heavily into two major strengths: a dynamite run game and a wealth of defensive playmakers. It's been enough to offset a mediocre passing game and occasional big-play issues on defense.
Oregon has faced some solid run games in 2026 (Boise State, Oklahoma State, USC) and ranks a decent 40th in yards allowed per carry, but UCLA is first in the country in overall yards per carry and, thanks primarily to Wayne Knight, second in yards per carry after contact.
Knight and Anthony Woods are averaging 8.4 yards per carry between them. Oregon's pass defense has struggled, but almost all of Nico Iamaleava's success has come from being able to throw on preoccupied defenses. If the Ducks can slow Knight and Woods, they'll slow down Iamaleava.
UCLA's defense is aggressive to a fault -- the Bruins are 13th in success rate allowed but 106th in yards allowed per successful play. Oregon's run game hasn't been as strong as expected, but the passing game is certainly efficient. Dylan Raiola was outstanding filling in for the injured Dante Moore against USC and will start again Saturday. The game could be decided by how well the Ducks counterpunch in the face of aggression from players such as OLB Sammy Omosigho and defensive end Sahir West.
Current line: Oregon -11.5 | SP+ projection: Oregon by 10.0 | FPI projection: Oregon by 14.6
No. 7 Indiana at Nebraska (noon, Fox)
Nebraska is 5-0 and has overachieved against projections every week. The Cornhuskers have yet to face an SP+ top-60 opponent, but flaws can still emerge against a light schedule, and Nebraska hasn't really clued us in on any glaring issues yet. Raiola's replacement in Lincoln, veteran Anthony Colandrea, is contributing timely rushing, few negative plays and solid accuracy. The big plays are minimal, as the chart below shows, but he has been excellent.
Indiana, of course, is a perfect opponent for finding out whether Nebraska is for real. The Hoosiers never go three-and-out, they have an incredible running back duo in Turbo Richard and Lee Beebe Jr., Josh Hoover is completing 71% of his passes (with zero INTs), and while the defense gets hit by a big pass play every now and then, sustaining anything against IU has been almost impossible.
Nebraska hasn't beaten an AP top-seven team since a wild 39-38 win over Michigan State in 2015. Indiana will tell us just how seriously we need to be taking these Huskers.
Current line: Indiana -7.5 (down from -9.5) | SP+ projection: Indiana by 7.7 | FPI projection: Indiana by 6.9
No. 19 USC at Penn State (7:30 p.m., NBC)
This is a pretty desperate White Out game. Matt Campbell's Penn State had a ridiculously easy schedule by Big Ten standards, which added some first-year pressure, but the Nittany Lions have lost two in a row and are, per SP+, projected favorites in only one of their next four games.
Lincoln Riley, of course, came into 2026 facing even more pressure, and while Jayden Maiava and the offense are as efficient as ever, coordinator Gary Patterson's defense is 113th in points allowed per possession despite having played only one SP+ top-50 offense. With Ohio State, Indiana and UCLA remaining on the docket, this one's a must-win for the Trojans. PSU might not have the offensive firepower to punish USC, but evidently bettors think a White Out crowd might be able to get the job done by itself.
Since Riley took over in 2022, USC on the road is 6-0 as a double-digit favorite, 5-5 as a single-digit favorite and 0-5 as an underdog. Uh oh.
Current line: PSU -1.5 | SP+ projection: USC by 0.6 | FPI projection: PSU by 4.2
A little clarity in a confusing Big 12 race
The Big 12 race is in an interesting place. Unbeaten Utah, Texas Tech and BYU might be a step or two ahead of the pack, but six one-loss teams (Arizona, Baylor, Cincinnati, Houston, Kansas State and Oklahoma State) have looked the part at times. Two of the primary contenders host interesting underdogs this week, and three other games will tell us quite a bit about those secondary contenders.
Iowa State at No. 8 BYU (Friday, 10:15 p.m., ESPN)
Obviously everyone plays better against bad defenses than good ones, but Iowa State's splits through five games have been amazing.
ISU vs. three defenses ranked 107th or worse in SP+: 46.0 PPG, 7.4 yards per play, 46.8% success rate
ISU vs. two top-20 defenses: 15.0 PPG, 4.5 yards per play, 34.1% success rate
Star running back Aiden Flora has averaged 11.0 yards per carry against the former group and 4.5 against the latter. Unfortunately, there are far more good defenses left on the Cyclones' schedule than bad ones, and BYU's doesn't allow big plays or yards after contact.
I'm curious about the Cougars' offense, though: In admittedly inclement conditions last week at TCU, it averaged just 3.5 yards per play. Star running back LJ Martin is out for a few weeks with injury, and though backup Journee Tonga has been excellent in a small sample, quarterback Bear Bachmeier might have to make more plays on passing downs than he is used to.
Current line: BYU -10.5 | SP+ projection: BYU by 16.5 | FPI projection: BYU by 14.0
Kansas at No. 12 Utah (10:15 p.m., ESPN)
Kansas' defense has surged this season -- the Jayhawks rank first in success rate allowed (28.0%) and fifth in third-down conversion rate allowed (24.1%). They're also just 2-2, however, thanks to a mistake-prone offense. Quarterback Isaiah Marshall is seemingly capable of only the greatest and worst plays, and against a brilliant Utah pass defense (second in yards allowed per dropback), it's easy to assume disaster.
We'll at least learn a lot about the Utah offense. With Devon Dampier handing to Wayshawn Parker and throwing to Parker and Braden Pegan, Utah is ninth in points per drive with almost no three-and-outs. But against the only top-50 offense the Utes faced (Iowa State's), Dampier averaged just 11.4 yards per completion, and the Utes needed a heavy dose of Parker -- and a fast start -- to survive.
Current line: Utah -15.5 | SP+ projection: Utah by 16.7 | FPI projection: Utah by 17.7
No. 22 Houston at Kansas State (3:30 p.m., Fox)
This might be the most interesting strength-versus-strength and weakness-versus-weakness matchup of Week 6. Kansas State's run game is brutally efficient, but yards have been hard to come by through the air. Meanwhile, Houston's defense ranks 16th in yards allowed per carry (excluding sacks) but 87th in yards per dropback.
The Kansas State defense is aggressive and entertaining, by which I mean it's one of the most all-or-nothing units in the country.
Houston doesn't create all that many chunk plays, however. The Cougars' offense is an efficiency machine going up against an efficient defense -- Houston is second in success rate, and K-State is fifth in success rate allowed. Something has to give!
Current line: K-State -2.5 | SP+ projection: K-State by 1.2 | FPI projection: K-State by 0.3
UCF at No. 18 Oklahoma State (noon, ESPN2)
UCF led Houston 17-0 with 19 minutes left last week but collapsed late. The Knights have played mostly stellar defense, and random big plays from RB Duke Watson and WR Josh Derry give them upset potential, but they've fallen short against both of the top-40 opponents they've faced, and QB Alonza Barnett III remains out with injury.
OSU has been awesome since the Week 1 loss to Tulsa. Drew Mestemaker is on pace for another 4,000-yard passing season, and though the OSU defense is shaky against the run -- which opens the door for Watson -- it has been great against the pass. If the Pokes can force UCF behind schedule semi-consistently, that's curtains for an upset bid.
Current line: OSU -10.5 | SP+ projection: OSU by 4.5 | FPI projection: OSU by 4.4
Arizona at West Virginia (noon, TNT)
In chronological order, here are the total points in West Virginia games this year: 55, 59, 65, 65, 87. By the end of the year, the Mountaineers will be playing 70-63 games like it's 2012 all over again. But for now, they desperately need a strong performance after an 0-2 start in conference play.
Arizona is coming off its best performance of the season, a blowout of Cincinnati, and Noah Fifita's high-efficiency passing might be too much for the WVU defense to handle. But the Mountaineers' offense is unique and fun and will test what has been, to date, a strong Arizona front.
Current line: Arizona -3 | SP+ projection: Arizona by 9.9 | FPI projection: Arizona by 3.6
The Group of 6 games of the week
You could say the top four contenders in the hunt for the Group of 6's automatic CFP berth are, in some order, James Madison, Boise State, Memphis and the coming North Dakota State-New Mexico winner. But before I can continue my campaign for "College GameDay" to go to Albuquerque for that one, NDSU faces a big road test against UNLV. Meanwhile, Boise State heads to Fresno to face its bogey team. SP+ says there's only a 47% chance both road teams win.
North Dakota State at UNLV (7 p.m., The CW)
After a frustrating 1-2 start, UNLV has finally begun scoring points. Quarterback Jackson Arnold is still taking too many sacks -- three more against Cal last week -- but running back Jai'Den Thomas and Arnold are producing on the ground. The Rebels' offense is still all or nothing, but the "alls" are increasing.
NDSU prevents big plays beautifully and pressures passers (thanks to ends Matthew Stenbroten and Kelton McCaslin) and forces turnovers. The Bison could overcome a couple of big plays, especially if NDSU quarterback Nathan Hayes keeps finding receivers Jackson Williams and Mekhi Collins for big gainers.
Current line: NDSU -3 | SP+ projection: NDSU by 10.3 | FPI projection: UNLV by 0.9
No. 23 Boise State at Fresno State (10:30 p.m., The CW)
Boise State has gone a combined 16-4 in the 2020s against current Pac-12 mates not named Fresno State. But the Broncos are 2-3 against the Bulldogs, including a 30-7 thumping last year. Fresno State has pounded four straight weak opponents since a season-opening no-show against USC. Have the Bulldogs improved or have they simply been feasting on inferior opponents?
Boise State has been in cruise control since Week 2's impressive win over Memphis, but injuries in the skill corps are adding up, and the Broncos might be without their top two RBs and two starting WRs. With JMU and potentially NDSU each having decent odds of going unbeaten, the Broncos might not be able to afford a second loss.
Current line: BSU -6.5 | SP+ projection: BSU by 5.4 | FPI projection: BSU by 8.3
Week 6 chaos superfecta
We're once again using this space to will chaos into existence, looking at four carefully curated games with pretty big point spreads and mashing them together into a much more upset-friendly number. Thanks to Purdue's win over Illinois in Champaign, we're now 4-for-5 for the season! Let's keep the good times rolling.
We're going with an SEC theme this week: Though Ole Miss (-9.5 at Vanderbilt), Florida (-11.5 vs. South Carolina), LSU (-8.5 at Kentucky) and Tennessee (-13.5 at Arkansas) all started out this week favored by double digits, SP+ says there's only a 29% chance all four favorites win. I love those odds! Choose your victim!
Week 6 playlist
Here are some more games you should pay attention to if you want to get the absolute most out of the weekend, from both information and entertainment perspectives.
Friday evening
Florida State at Louisville (7 p.m., ESPN). Was FSU's blowout of Virginia a sign of a corner turned or just a nice performance from an inconsistent team? If it's the former, at least five of seven remaining games are winnable, including this one against explosive but defensively subpar Louisville. But if it was a brief up before an inevitable down, Lincoln Kienholz (back from injury) and the Cardinals will pull away.
Current line: Louisville -3.5 (down from -5.5) | SP+ projection: Louisville by 3.3 | FPI projection: Louisville by 1.1
No. 20 Iowa at Washington (9 p.m., Fox). Iowa took its medicine against Jeremiah Smith and Ohio State, but the 4-1 Hawkeyes have only two more SP+ top-40 opponents left. The next three offenses they face are iffy, so if the Hawkeyes' offense can just dig up 21 points or so, there are lots of wins on the table. Of course, if Washington can hold USC to 25 points, the Huskies can hold Iowa to half that, especially at home.
Current line: UW -3 | SP+ projection: UW by 2.1 | FPI projection: Iowa by 3.6
Early Saturday
Texas A&M at No. 14 Missouri (noon, ABC). Beware of the SEC's Main Character Curse. Ole Miss won a game against LSU, then face-planted against Florida, which earned mega-buzz and got thumped by Missouri. The Tigers have been better than Texas A&M this year, especially at QB, but A&M got some confidence back in blowing out Arkansas, and if the Tigers -- suddenly banged up on defense -- are hungover, a fourth straight loss to the Aggies is on the table.
Current line: Mizzou -3.5 | SP+ projection: Mizzou by 9.7 | FPI projection: Mizzou by 0.5
North Carolina at No. 25 Pitt (noon, ESPN). You never want to find out if your backup QB situation is sufficient, but Pitt is about to. The unbeaten Panthers have an excellent defense, and UNC's Billy Edwards Jr. & Co. probably don't have the big-play capabilities to score much. But while journeyman Holden Geriner did just enough to inch Pitt past Virginia Tech last week after Mason Heintschel's season-ending injury, UNC's defense has a little film on him and is good enough to give him issues.
Current line: Pitt -4 | SP+ projection: Pitt by 15.3 | FPI projection: Pitt by 9.1
South Carolina at No. 16 Florida (12:45 p.m., SECN). South Carolina has lost three in a row, and the next three games are against SP+ top-25 teams. Of course, the Gamecocks also almost beat Mississippi State and Kentucky. Their run game is excellent, their run defense is good, and end Dylan Stewart might return. Florida was humbled by Missouri last week, and while I bet the Gators respond well, their defense still isn't great. A track meet isn't out of the question if the rain allows.
Current line: Florida -11.5 (down from -14.5) | SP+ projection: Florida by 8.4 | FPI projection: Florida by 8.5
Wake Forest at NC State (noon, The CW). Wake Forest is improving by the week; the Gio Lopez-to-Carlos Hernandez combination has the Demon Deacons up to 15th in points per drive, and a bend-don't-break defense is solidifying. But NC State also is improving. The Wolfpack have won two straight, and though the defense still gives up big plays, the State passing game is making more too.
Current line: Wake -3.5 | SP+ projection: Wake by 5.1 | FPI projection: Wake by 6.2
Saturday afternoon
Duke at Georgia Tech (3:30 p.m., ESPN2). Another one for the "potential downpours" list. Duke has allowed more than seven points just once in four games, and in lead back Nate Sheppard, the Blue Devils might have just the guy to grind out a win on a sloppy track. Georgia Tech is 1-3 despite having played only one team ranked higher than 84th in SP+; starting with Duke, six of the Yellow Jackets' last eight opponents are in the top 50.
Current line: Duke -6.5 | SP+ projection: Duke by 8.1 | FPI projection: Duke by 8.3
No. 15 Tennessee at Arkansas (4:15 p.m., SECN). George MacIntyre takes over for Faizon Brandon (2.1 yards per dropback in his last two starts) as Tennessee's starting QB. Running back DeSean Bishop and an increasingly excellent defense were enough to get past Auburn, and Auburn is better than Arkansas. The Razorbacks have a star in receiver Chris Marshall, but they need so much more than they have.
Current line: Vols -13.5 | SP+ projection: Vols by 18.9 | FPI projection: Vols by 16.1
No. 9 Ole Miss at Vanderbilt (3:30 p.m., ESPN). Ole Miss got a bye week to come up with solutions for a defense that ranks 123rd in points per drive. Even Vanderbilt's offense (99th) might find some advantages against that. Trinidad Chambliss should lead the Rebels past the Commodores, but their schedule is too hard for them to contend for the CFP without massive defensive improvement.
Current line: Ole Miss -9.5 | SP+ projection: Ole Miss by 3.5 | FPI projection: Ole Miss by 7.9
Maryland at No. 5 Ohio State (4:15 p.m., BTN). Maryland ranks 105th in passing success rate allowed and 109th in completion rate allowed. While the Terrapins have suffered those averages against a strong set of offenses, none of those opponents had Jeremiah Smith. If Ohio State wants to get him another 200-yard receiving game, he'll get it.
Current line: OSU -34.5 | SP+ projection: OSU -30.5 | FPI projection: OSU by 35.3
Stanford at No. 3 Notre Dame (3:30 p.m., NBC). Stanford has played three games against SP+ top-50 opponents and has lost them by an average of 46-5. Notre Dame is fourth in SP+. Only one more week until Notre Dame plays BYU and we get a real impression of the Fighting Irish.
Current line: Irish -38.5 | SP+ projection: Irish by 42.8 | FPI projection: Irish by 44.6
Saturday evening
Minnesota at Purdue (8 p.m., BTN). Purdue conjured its best performance of the Barry Odom era in a win over Illinois, while Minnesota has won three in a row and beat Michigan to take the Little Brown Jug for the first time in 12 years. PJ Fleck is somehow becoming even more Fleckian, if that's possible? The vibes are pretty good here, though Minnesota's would be even better with a win and a first 3-0 Big Ten start since 2019.
Current line: Minnesota -2.5 | SP+ projection: Minnesota by 6.6 | FPI projection: Minnesota by 1.1
James Madison at Georgia Southern (7:30 p.m., ESPNU). Billy Napier's JMU Dukes are projected favorites of at least 12 points in every remaining game. Their odds of getting to 12-0 are strong. But Paulson Stadium will be hostile and extremely wet, and JMU lost by 14 here two years ago. The Eagles' offense is improving, and the defense forces lots of three-and-outs. Can the Dukes stay on track?
Current line: JMU -7.5 (down from -9.5) | SP+ projection: JMU by 15.0 | FPI projection: JMU by 11.3
Louisiana at Louisiana Tech (7:30 p.m., ESPN+). These schools are separated by about 200 miles, but they've played only twice since 2004. Luckily they're conference mates now! Tech is all or nothing on both offense and defense, while Louisiana neither makes nor allows many big plays. Fun contrasts. The winner will be in excellent shape in the Sun Belt West.
Current line: Tech -3 | SP+ projection: Louisiana by 4.5 | FPI projection: Tech by 1.0
San Diego State at Oregon State (6 p.m., USA). SDSU overcame both bad stats and the mumps to knock off Texas State last week, but no one has slowed the Oregon State offense yet -- Braden Atkinson might hit 5,000 passing yards and 40 TDs this year. OSU has emerged as Boise State's biggest Pac-12 threat but can't afford a stumble before trips to Fresno and Boise.
Current line: OSU -15.5 (up from -14) | SP+ projection: OSU by 15.1 | FPI projection: OSU by 11.3
Late Saturday
Hawai'i at Arizona State (9:30 p.m., FS1). After an awful performance against Baylor, ASU desperately needs to get back on track. Luckily, the Sun Devils are hosting one of the country's more disappointing teams, a Hawai'i squad that has underachieved against projections in every game. Someone will score a rebound win in Tempe, and WR Reed Harris is probably far too explosive for the Rainbow Warriors.
Current line: ASU -20.5 | SP+ projection: ASU by 15.3 | FPI projection: ASU by 17.6
Smaller-school showcase
Let's once again save a shoutout for the glorious lower levels of the sport. Here are three games you should track.
FCS: Dartmouth at Yale (noon, ESPNU). I don't know how, but last week, a day after the death of former Yale head coach Tony Reno, who resigned earlier this year because of health issues, his Bulldogs, led by quarterback Dante Reno (Tony's son), beat Merrimack comfortably. Reno threw four touchdown passes. Now comes a test against conference mate Dartmouth; the Big Green always have a stalwart defense and beat Penn 14-10 last week. Despite a surprising loss at Cornell, Yale still has Ivy League title and playoff potential, but the Bulldogs' resiliency will be tested massively.
SP+ projection: Yale by 9.7.
FCS: No. 2 Tarleton State at No. 8 Austin Peay (7 p.m., ESPN+). Jeff Faris' Austin Peay team (third in FCS SP+) has beaten five FCS opponents by an average of 43-14 and frustrated Vanderbilt well into the second half. Todd Whitten's Tarleton State (fifth in SP+), meanwhile, beat Bowling Green and has won its last two games by a combined 101-41. This is one of the bigger games in the history of APSU's Fortera Stadium, and it's worth a spot in your Saturday evening quad box.
SP+ projection: APSU by 3.9.
Division III: No. 2 Wheaton at No. 1 North Central (7 p.m., local streaming). The Battle for the Little Brass Bell is the biggest game of the Division III season. North Central and Wheaton are separated by 10 miles and are right next to each other at the top of the polls. North Central has already beaten a pair of top-10 opponents, while Wheaton has won its last four games by an average of 47-7. Wheaton hasn't even stayed within 12 points of NCC since a win in 2019, but quarterback Mark Forcucci is super efficient, and a ridiculously active Thunder defense already has nine players with at least two tackles for loss. Can the visitors spring a crosstown upset in Naperville?
SP+ projection: North Central by 10.4.