We are about midway through the regular season of the NFL and that brings me sadness because I just started heating up. I have seven picks I like this week, including player props on Patrick Mahomes, Drake Maye, and Tony Pollard, plus three spreads picks for the 1 PM Eastern games. Best of luck, happy November, and enjoy your day!
Vikings at Lions (-3): O/U 46.5
I said Monday of this week on NBC that this was the no-brainer of the week. It’s a miracle that the Minnesota Vikings are the lone undefeated team in the NFL, and to me, they are the most overrated team. In the last four games, Minnesota has beaten Tampa Bay, Miami, New Orleans, and Indianapolis; those teams are a combined 7-20. Last season, the Vikings swept the Lions in the regular season, and adding Kyler Murray likely doesn’t equate to another sweep over Detroit.
Murray ranks 21st and 26th in passer rating against man and zone coverage, 28th in blitzed completion percentage (54.8%), and 26th in play-action completion percentage (54.9%). On early downs, Minnesota ranks in success rate, while Detroit is first. Going score for score on the road as an underdog with Jared Goff and the Lions doesn’t seem plausible to me. I like Detroit -3 at -120 odds.
Pick: Lions -3 (1 unit)
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Titans at Bengals (-12.5): O/U 46.5
Tony Pollard had a season-high 129 rushing yards on 25 carries and tied a career-high with three rushing touchdowns. It was a great day for Pollard, but the Titans lost at the buzzer 27-24 to the Browns. Now, Tennessee goes on the road as double-digit underdogs in Cincinnati. Not a recipe for success.
Last week, Pollard had an amazing game script to be fed, maybe the best he’s had all year, but I don’t see it this week, especially going up against Dexter Lawrence and Jonathan Allen. The Bengals held Derrick Henry to 45 rushing yards on 17 carries last week, and with Cam Ward striking no fear in the Bengals’ hearts, I’d think Cincy stacks the box and attempt to take Pollard out of the equation. I went Under 65.5 rushing yards on Pollard and would go down to 60.5.
Pick: Tony Pollard Under 65.5 Rushing Yards (1 unit)
Browns at Steelers (-3.5): O/U 38.5
I still can’t believe my eyes and ears regarding the Cleveland Browns being 5-2! But all good things must come to an end, right? All five of Cleveland’s wins have come by four or fewer points, and they needed a walkoff field goal to beat the Titans in Tennessee and the same at home against the Ravens in the last two weeks. Cleveland has been playing with fire recently, while the Steelers were spotted flying back from Paris playing with ice.
Aaron Rodgers was wearing chains that cost more than my house and probably yours too on that flight back from the NFL’s first-ever game in Paris. Rodgers said it was his favorite road flight of his lengthy NFL career, and the Steelers are starting to hit their stride with three-straight wins following the loss to the Browns in Cleveland.
The Steelers traveling back to an immediate game is worrisome because the last eight teams that played in London, then a game in the States the following week, went 0-8 ATS! However, the Browns haven’t swept the Steelers in the regular season since 1988. It’s a revenge spot for Pittsburgh, and if you’ve seen the back-and-forth between Cam Heyward and Jared Verse this week, then you know it’s going to be a classic AFC North slugfest. Give me Pittsburgh at home -3.5. I’d prefer a -3, but the sportsbooks are playing more defense than ever this season.
Pick: Steelers -3.5 (1 unit)
Falcons at Bucs (-2.5): O/U
Tampa Bay got that Baker bump last week! Baker Mayfield came back from injury and Tampa Bay looked inspired. The Bucs rattled Bryce Young last week and destroyed his confidence turning three turnovers into 17 of the teams 43 points. This week won’t be so easy hosting Atlanta in a letdown spot off the hype. Mayfield only threw the ball 11 times, so we truly don’t know how healthy he is or how effective he will be, but we know what to expect from Atlanta.
The Falcons have the fifth-best offensive success rate since Michael Penix has taken over, and he’s gotten the ball out quick with 50% of his passes coming within 2.5 seconds (fourth-best). That could be the key against a blitz and pressure heavy Bucs defense. Tampa Bay loads the box with eight or more players at the second-highest clip (22.1%) and blitzes 40.4% of the time when doing so, which ranks fifth-most. I’d expect a lot of screens, draws, and quick throws to offeset the Bucs defense, while Atlanta likely brings pressure and tries to hit Mayfield as many times as possible to truly test his health and conditioning. Give me Atlanta.
Pick: Falcons +2.5 (1 unit)
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Patriots (-7) at Dolphins: O/U 43.5
Last season, Drake Maye completed 33-of-41 (80.5%) passes for 421 yards, three touchdowns, and no interceptions over two wins against Miami. Maye even added 72 rushing yards and another score on 15 carries in those two outings. This Miami defense is even less menacing than last year.
The Dolphins have four interceptions on the season, and two came in Week 1 against Kirk Cousins, with another last week courtesy of Geno Smith. When Joe Burrow, Patrick Mahomes, Brock Purdy, and Kyler Murray played Miami, that group averaged 242.5 passing yards against the Dolphins and combined for eight touchdown passes to one interception. Kyler Murray was the only quarterback who hasn’t thrown at least two touchdowns against Miami. At -102 odds, I like Maye to go Under 0.5 Interceptions versus Miami for a third consecutive time and like 2+ Pass touchdowns for parlays.
Pick: Drake Maye Under 0.5 Interceptions (1 unit)
Chiefs (-1.5) at Broncos: O/U 40.5
In Week 1 against Denver, Patrick Mahomes came back from a major surgery and finished with 184 passing yards, 15-of-27 passing, and three total touchdowns, including an epic rushing score to start the game. He went Under all of his props except passing touchdowns and rushing yards.
Fast forward to last week, Mahomes had his worst game of the season on Sunday Night Football against the defending Super Bowl Champion Seahawks in Seattle. Mahomes turns around and goes to Denver to face a Broncos defense that almost went to the Super Bowl. It’s going to be a long day for the Chiefs, but unless Kenneth Walker goes crazy again (191 total yards, 2 TDs) this looks like a spot for Mahomes to go over his props.
The Broncos average 5.1 plays per possession, ranking worst in the NFL. That’s one area that points toward more plays and possessions for the Chiefs. Both of these teams rarely allow sacks or turn the ball over, so we should see plenty of possessions. Both teams had 12 drives in Week 1’s meeting, and Kansas City ran 20 more plays than Denver (62-42) thanks to the running game, and it was Davis Webb‘s first game as an OC with the Broncos. Still, Kansas City will likely run more plays and have more possessions than Denver.
Denver got back Jonathan Cooper last week, plus Patrick Surtain and Talanoa Hufanga could both play today. The Denver defense has usually limited the touchdown damage through the air from Mahomes, but in order to move the ball against Denver’s defense, Mahomes will have to be actively taking what the Broncos can give him. I like Mahomes to go Over 20.5 completions and 220.5 paassing yards up to 21.5 and 225.5. I lean his Over pass attempts.
Picks: Patrick Mahomes Over 20.5 Completions (1 unit), Mahomes Over 220.5 Passing Yards (1 unit)
Picks
1 unit: Tony Pollard Under 65.5 Rushing Yards (-110)
1 unit: Drake Maye Under 0.5 Interceptions (-102)
1 unit: Patrick Mahomes Over 20.5 Completions (-108)
1 unit: Patrick Mahomes Over 220.5 Passing Yards (-113)
1 unit: Lions -3 (-120)
1 unit: Steelers -3.5 (-105)
1 unit: Falcons +2.5 (-118)
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