2026 Fantasy Football Week 9 Defense (DST) Rankings and Streamers

It was a mixed bag for the ranks in Week 8. Both my rankings and the Fantasy Pros consensus rankings got 5 of the top 10 defenses correct, but my top 10 defenses averaged 9.3 fantasy points, while consensus averaged 8.6, so that’s a small win. The Jaguars, who I had first, finished first with 20 points; the Steelers (my 3rd defense) finished 2nd with 19 points, and the Buccaneers, who I had 12th while consensus had them 21st, finished 3rd with 18 points. Those are some small victories to feel good about.

On the other hand, I had the Bills 24th, and they finished 4th with 14 points because Lamar Jackson was hurt on the first play, and then Tyler Huntley went down a few plays later. There’s no way to account for that. However, I did have all of the Chiefs, Browns, and Bengals in my top 10, and they flopped. The Bengals were a situation where I may have overvalued their matchup, and the Chiefs could be in yet another year where their real-life defense is just better than their fantasy performance.

Overall, the defense rankings weren’t terrible this week despite the misses at the top. The defenses finished 7.2 spots away from where I ranked them, which is the lowest since Week 4 and better than my 8.2 season average. I’m continuing to test for stats that are most connected to fantasy defense success, and opponent’s implied total remains by far the strongest input, so I’ll keep weighing that most.

2026 SEASON SUCCESS RATE

*Consensus Rankings are taken from FantasyPros Consensus Rankings around 10 am on Sundays. For Week 1 only this season, I used a combination of ClutchPoints and RotoBaller.

BOD Formula and Philosophy

If you’ve read my earlier articles, then you know that I value defenses that get pressure on the quarterback and create turnover opportunities, which is likely what most people value. However, that means I look at underlying metrics and try to value the quality of the defense over simply saying, “Who is playing a bad offense?” Yet, when I did a deep dive this offseason, I discovered that the stats most commonly associated with top-10 fantasy defenses were first-down allowed, points per game allowed, and third-down conversion rate allowed. So even though I love defenses who get pressure, defenses who can also get off the field quickly tend to be the best fantasy defenses. Perhaps this isn’t a shock, but maybe we’re not really paying attention to the relevant stats when predicting fantasy defensive performance.

The next four most predictive defensive stats were pressure rate, passes defended, turnover rate, and explosive play rate allowed (plays over 20+ yards). With that in mind, I decided to update my Best Overall Defense (BOD) formula to include just these seven stats. I doubled the weight of the first three stats, which are more predictive, and have a single weight for the other four stats. I also incorporate Vegas’ implied team total in the algorithm every week, and when we get opponent stats, I will include fantasy points allowed to opposing defenses as part of the equation since fantasy points are the strongest predictor of fantasy points.

I’ll obviously have to adjust the algorithm each week for injuries or weather, but I try not to rely too much on “gut feel” or concerns about wind, etc.

With that out of the way, onto the rankings.

FOR A MORE DETAILED DISCUSSION OF DST PLAYS FOR THIS WEEK, CHECK OUT ERIC’S PICK 3(DST) VIDEO OVER ON THE NFL ON NBC YOUTUBE PAGE.

No team got hit harder by injuries in Week 8 than the Ravens, who lost both Lamar Jackson and Tyler Huntley in the first quarter. With this game on a Thursday, it’s very likely that neither one of them will play, which is huge for a Jacksonville defense that ranks 1st in turnover rate, 2nd in points allowed per game, 5th in pressure rate, and 3rd in fantasy points per game over the last six weeks at 9.2. Baltimore has an implied total of 17, the 2nd-lowest on the slate, and they are already 24th in the NFL in allowed sack rate even before accounting for a third-string quarterback.

Seattle didn’t look as dominant against the Bears on Monday night, but this is still a really good defense. On the season, they are 2nd in the league in explosive play rate allowed, 2nd in pressure rate, 3rd in first downs allowed per game, and 3rd in third-down conversion rate allowed. The Cardinals benched Jacoby Brissett on Sunday and saw both Jeremiyah Love and Bam Knight get injured. I know Tyler Allgeier played well, but his success really came on just two carries, and this Seahawks defense is not the Cowboys. The Cardinals have the lowest implied team total on the slate at 16.5 points, and I think Seattle will bounce back with a convincing win here.

Despite Houston’s name recognition, this ranking is mostly about matchup and not about their success as a defense. Houston is 7th in pressure rate on the season but not top 10 in any of the other metrics I use. In fact, they’re 28th in explosive play rate allowed and 28th in turnover rate. However, the Chargers’ implied total of 18.0 is the 3rd-lowest on the slate, and they rank 26th in sack rate allowed and 30th in turnover rate. The Chargers did get Joe Alt back last week, but their offensive line remains decimated by injuries, and I expect the Texans to take advantage of that since the one thing they can still do is get pressure on the quarterback.

It’s hard to know what to think of the Bucs’ offense, but man, did the Bears defense look good on Monday with Jeffrey Simmons now in town. On Sunday, the Bucs completed zero, yes, ZERO passes, but they also won easily in the rain. Emeka Egbuka could be back in Week 9, and that would be a big boost. Chicago is 1st in third-down conversion rate allowed, 2nd in first downs allowed per game, 6th in pressure rate (39.6%) and 8th in points allowed per game. They are 28th in explosive play rate allowed, but the Bucs don’t seem like an explosive offense. They have the 6th-lowest implied team total on the slate and rank 20th in the NFL in turnover rate and 28th in sack rate allowed. I think this is another good week for the Bears defense.

Kansas City is 4th in points allowed per game, 8th in turnover rate, and 9th in explosive play rate allowed. It’s a really solid overall defensive unit. The Jets, despite having a lot of talented players on offense, are fairly average as a complete unit. They’re 9th in the league in turnover rate, which is strong, but they are 24th in sack rate allowed. Vegas gives the Jets an implied team total of 18.5 points, which is the 4th-lowest on the slate, so this should be a low-scoring output with a few sacks racked up for the Chiefs.

Denver is 4th in the league in pressure rate, 11th in points allowed per game, 12th in explosive play rate allowed, and is averaging the 7th most fantasy points per game over the last six weeks at 7.7 points. Meanwhile, the Panthers’ offensive line is incredibly banged up, and they rank 20th in the NFL in sack rate allowed. The high-flying offense has come back down to Earth a little bit of late, and the Panthers’ implied team total of 20.25 points is the sixth-lowest on the slate on Sunday. Carolina could get it together again on offense, but this feels like a safe floor day for the Broncos.

How much do you want to trust the Giants defense against a banged-up Eagles offense? New York hasn’t been a great defense this season, ranking 11th in first downs allowed per game and not near the top 10 in anything else, and is also just 31st in pressure rate, but the Eagles are a good matchup with Tanner McKee at quarterback. Now, it’s possible that DeVonta Smith returns this week, and maybe Saquon Barkley gets a bit healthier, but this Eagles offensive line is also in a bad spot, and they rank 22nd in the NFL in sack rate allowed. With New York also coming off a bye, I think they could be in for a solid day here, but we’ll need to check back on this mid-week for injury updates.

The Vikings scored seven fantasy points against a great Lions offense in Week 8, so maybe they do the same here? They are an elite defense, ranking 1st in points allowed per game, 1st in first downs allowed per game, 1st in pressure rate, 3rd in third-down conversion rate allowed, 4th in turnover rate, and are 2nd in fantasy points per game over the last six weeks at 10.6 points. At some point, you just have to rank them.

I can’t figure out the Rams defense. Maybe my expectations were just too high. On the season, they rank 6th in third-down conversion rate allowed, 7th in explosive play rate allowed, 8th in first downs allowed per game, and 12th in points allowed per game. They’re a solid real-life defense, but the Commanders are not a great matchup. Yes, Washington is without Terry McLaurin and their running game isn’t that good, but they have the lowest turnover rate in the NFL, and although they rank 20th in sack rate allowed, some of that is skewed by the time that Jalen Daniels missed. This is maybe my toughest rank of the week.

The 49ers really shouldn’t be this good with so many injuries, but maybe the bye week will have fixed that? They should get Nick Bosa back, and they also just traded for DeForest Buckner, who is going to be a huge asset in the interior of their defensive line. On the season, this defense is 1st in explosive play rate allowed, 5th in first downs allowed per game, 7th in points allowed per game, and 10th in third-down conversion rate allowed. The Raiders are a fine offense with a bad offensive line, and I think the 49ers can take advantage of that this weekend.

I think you could play both defenses in this Browns and Saints game, but I prefer the Browns. On the season, they are 10th in pressure rate, 12th in third-down conversion rate allowed, and are the 10th-ranked defense in fantasy football. Meanwhile, the Saints are 27th in turnover rate allowed and have been a fairly average offense over the few weeks heading into the bye. With Kelvin Banks Jr. and Dillon Radunz both on IR, this Saints offensive line can be beaten. On the other side, this Browns offense isn’t that good and has an implied team total of 20.5 points, which is the 8th-lowest on the slate. Deshaun Watson takes more sacks than any other quarterback in the NFL and was sacked eight times by the Steelers. The bad news is that the Saints are dead last in the NFL in pressure rate, so they may not be the team to take advantage of that weakness.

Yes, the Bills have not been a great defense this year, but they are 9^th in the NFL in pressure rate and 12^th in turnover rate, so there is some value here. The Vikings offense has also really not been effective with Kyler Murray under center. They have an implied team total of 21, which is the 10^th-lowest on the slate this weekend, and they rank 27^th in the NFL in sack rate allowed. So we have a top 10 pressure rate defense in Buffalo going up against a bottom five sack rate allowed offense in Minnesota. That could help Buffalo sneak into the top 10 here.

I don’t love the Patriots’ matchup against the Packers, but they are a solid defense overall. On the season, they rank 8th in pressure rate, 9th in first downs allowed per game, 9th in points allowed per game, and 11th in third-down conversion rate allowed. So that’s a fringe top 10 defense against an offense that’s 16th in the NFL in turnover rate and has the 12th-lowest implied team total on the slate. All of that seems to suggest fringe top 12 performance to me.

Yes, this is a good matchup for the Lions defense, but they are really not a good defense. On the season, they rank 15th in pressure rate, 28th in explosive play rate allowed, and 32nd in first downs allowed per game. The Dolphins are 22nd in turnover rate allowed and 29th in sack rate allowed, so the Lions are in a good spot, and that’s really the only reason they are this high. The Dolphins have an implied team total of 22 points, and the Lions will be without Kerby Joseph, Jack Campbell, Devin White, Avonte Maddox, and, potentially, Brian Branch. Those are not injuries we should avoid calculating into this ranking.

The Packers will face a banged-up Patriots offense that likely also lost Hunter Henry to injury this weekend. This is also a Packers defense that is 1st in the NFL in turnover rate, 3rd in explosive play rate allowed, and 10th in points allowed per game. They’ll be going up against a Patriots offense that is 17th in sack rate allowed and 29th in turnover rate, but Vegas still gives the Patriots an implied team total of 24.75 points, which is 12th-best on the slate. On paper, I like this matchup, but the Packers are also without Micah Parsons, Edgerrin Cooper, and Javon Hargrave, which are pretty big injuries that do hurt the upside of this defense.

Defenses ranked this low may be intriguing, but I can’t consider playing them outside of the deepest formats.

Yes, we want to target the Colts offense with fantasy defenses, but this Cowboys defense is pretty bad. They are 23rd in explosive play rate allowed, 30th in turnover rate, and 32nd in third-down conversion rate allowed. They also lost Caleb Downs to injury on Sunday and are without Malachi Lawrence and Jalen Thompson. Depth injuries just aren’t something this defense can afford. Now, if the Colts trade Jonathan Taylor this week, we’ll have to move Dallas up, but the Colts have an implied team total of 22.75 points this week, which is right in the middle of the pack.

This isn’t just a reaction to the Bengals letting us down against the Titans this past Sunday. The Bengals are 5^th in the NFL in turnover rate, and that could work since Michael Penix threw 4 interceptions on Sunday. However, the Bengals are also 29^th in third-down conversion rate allowed and 31^st in explosive play rate allowed. Last week, they gave up Cam Ward’s first-ever 300-yard passing game, and that was with Carnell Tate not on the field. So can we trust them to stop Bijan Robinson, Drake London, and Kyle Pitts? The Falcons have an implied team total of 25 points, and so I think they may turn the ball over or give up a few sacks, but I expect them to score plenty of points in this one.

As always, I can’t recommend playing any defense that you see here in Tier 5.