Arizona vs. Arkansas prediction, odds, pick for March Madness Sweet 16

The first one-seed will take the court in the March Madness Sweet Sixteen when Arizona (34-2) faces Arkansas (28-8) in San Jose on Thursday night.

Arizona enters the regional semifinal after dominating Long Island in the first round and topping Utah State in the Round of 32. Since losing two consecutive games in early February, the Wildcats enter the Sweet Sixteen riding an 11-game win streak.

Arkansas prepares for its toughest matchup of the season after narrowly escaping with a four-point win over upset-minded High Point in the Round of 32. Star point guard Darius Acuff Jr. has been one of the biggest March Madness stars thus far, scoring 60 points in the team’s first two games.

March Madness odds courtesy of DraftKings Sportsbook.

Arizona vs. Arkansas odds

Arizona: -7.5 (-112)

Arkansas: +7.5 (-108)

Over: 164.5 (-115)

Under: 164.5 (-115)

Arizona vs. Arkansas key injuries

Only one key player is listed on the official injury report for either team. Arkansas lists sophomore guard Karter Knox as out, while Arizona enters the matchup fully healthy. Knox has not played since Feb. 14, when he suffered a meniscus injury that required surgery the following week.

Arkansas’ injury report indicates that it is set to get forward Nick Pringle back in the lineup. Pringle has not played since the Razorbacks’ SEC Tournament Championship Game win over Vanderbilt while dealing with a hamstring injury.

Arizona vs. Arkansas betting trends

• Arizona is 21-14-1 against the spread
• Arizona is 2-0 against the spread in March Madness
• Arizona is 6-5 against the spread as single-digit favorite
• Arizona is 18-18 to the over
• Arkansas is 23-13 against the spread
• Arkansas is 1-1 against the spread in March Madness
• Arkansas is 6-5 against the spread as single-digit underdog
• Arkansas is 21-15 to the over

Arizona vs. Arkansas matchup

Arkansas has been one of the tournament’s hottest offensive teams thanks to Darius Acuff Jr., who is solidifying his case as the best point guard in the country. While Acuff’s recent success comes against a pair of mid-major programs, he is on a roll that seems impossible to stop, even with Arizona among the best perimeter defensive teams in the country.

Arizona has a plethora of stout defenders to throw at him, led by freshman Ivan Kharchenkov, who might be the best perimeter defender in college basketball. Ball-dominant guards have still had success against the Wildcats, and Acuff will get his numbers. It will be up to Arkansas’ supporting cast to help it pull off the upset.

While getting Nick Pringle back will be big for John Calipari’s defense, Arkansas’ interior players will be up against it. Arizona beats teams with its physicality and size, an area in which the Razorbacks have struggled all season.

In their first two NCAA Tournament games, the Wildcats have already racked up 72 points in the paint while out-rebounding their opponents 106-57. Arkansas ranks 351st in points in the paint allowed on the year.

Arizona, however, can struggle to control the ball at times, committing 10.8 turnovers per game. Forcing a track meet is Arkansas’ best path to victory, as the Wildcats can get uncomfortable when the pace quickens.

Arizona vs. Arkansas prediction and pick

Everyone will look at Darius Acuff Jr. to carry Arkansas to a victory, but the Razorbacks’ fate rests in the hands of Trevon Brazile and Malique Ewin. The only two teams to beat Arizona thus far — Texas Tech and Kansas — matched the Wildcats’ physicality and intensity in the paint, which will be a massive challenge for Calipari’s speed-based team.

As well as Brazile and Ewin have played recently, they have not faced as much size as they will on Thursday night in weeks. Arizona’s Koa Peat and Motiejus Krivas out-weigh Brazile and Ewin by an average of 10 pounds each while playing with an intensity the Razorbacks’ frontcourt has not seen since getting blown out by Florida in February.

While both teams want to get in the paint, where they each rank top-five in the country, Arizona is much better at defending it. The Wildcats are 20th in points allowed in the paint, while the Razorbacks struggle with a bottom-25 interior defense.

Acuff has carried the load recently, along with Meleek Thomas, but they will each need the game of their lives to remain within striking distance of the No. 1 seed. Arizona thrives on slowing the game at both ends of the court and forcing teams to play in the halfcourt, physically and mentally wearing opponents down. That has happened to the Razorbacks too often during the regular season.

Final Arizona-Arkansas Prediction & Pick: Arizona -7.5 (-112), Under 164.5 (-115)

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