Analytics predicts NFL Divisional Round playoff game winners

The NFL playoffs turn the page after a wildly entertaining Wild Card round. Game after game was full of exciting moments, nail-biters, last-minute drives, and stories to talk about. Except for the Pittsburgh Steelers, who were blown out of their building, leading to Mike Tomlin stepping away from the team.

It seems all but impossible for the Divisional Round to come even close to the entertainment factor that we saw last weekend, but the top-seeded Denver Broncos and Seattle Seahawks now get to join the fun. QB Sam Darnold coming down with an oblique injury on Thursday adds a little intrigue to the Seahawks matchup with the San Francisco 49ers.

In the other NFC matchup, the “best chess matchup” between head coaches, sees the Chicago Bears hosting the Los Angeles Rams in a game where the temperatures and snow flurries could be a big part of the outcome, and create an old school “snow globe” image on television.

In the AFC, QB Josh Allen is trying to deliver a “Disney ending,” hoping to create something his wife, Hailee Steinfeld, can “Marvel” at. (Sorry for the terrible superhero pun.) (I’m not actually sorry, I love the comics, movies, and television shows.) Beating the top-seeded Broncos and their stellar defense will take a super effort from Allen.

In perhaps the least discussed matchup of the weekend, former NFL linebackers Mike Vrabel and DeMeco Ryans lead their young squads into battle. With WR Nico Collins unlikely to play, the Houston Texans will have to find enough offense to support their talented defense against the NFL’s potential MVP, QB Drake Maye.

As we have for the last few seasons, we continue our “Analytics Predicts” feature for the NFL playoffs. Last week, using FTN’s DVOA, our predictions went 4-2. DVOA is a metric that breaks down the quality of play compared to the league average while adjusting for the strength of the opponents being played. DVOA is one of a couple of catch-all analytics measures that help us understand the beautiful game of football better.

With the Divisional Round next up, let us take a look at what DVOA predicts for the upcoming weekend in the NFL playoffs.

Buffalo Bills vs Denver Broncos

• Overall DVOA: Buffalo 8th vs Denver 7th
• Offensive DVOA: Buffalo 4th vs Denver 15th
• Defensive DVOA: Buffalo 20th vs Denver 5th

Edge: Broncos – Talk about starting off strong, coming off a great Wild Card weekend. The 7th-ranked team versus the 8th-ranked team should lead to a fun matchup. A great offense versus a great defense when Allen is on the field is certainly the main event. Denver’s lack of playoff experience will be interesting to watch, especially on offense.

San Francisco 49ers vs Seattle Seahawks

• Overall DVOA: San Francisco 10th vs Seattle 1st
• Offensive DVOA: San Francisco 2nd vs Seattle 10th
• Defensive DVOA: San Francisco 27th vs Seattle 1st

Edge: Seahawks – Another great offense versus great defense, but the big difference is when Seattle’s offense is on the field against a defense that struggled all year. DC Robert Saleh has made things work while having to start his backup’s backups at multiple positions. Darnold’s oblique will be something to watch if he gets hit or while trying to push the ball down the field. The Niners are the biggest underdog (-7) of the weekend.

Houston Texans vs New England Patriots

• Overall DVOA: Houston 4th vs New England 9th
• Offensive DVOA: Houston 19th vs New England 3rd
• Defensive DVOA: Houston 2nd vs New England 23rd

Edge: Texans – Perhaps the most surprising data points with Houston five spots higher than New England. Vrabel having a bottom-third defense is surprising, but Maye has been able to overcome that much of the year. Collins’ concussion could limit QB CJ Stroud on Sunday, but you can never count out the Texans’ defense from taking control of the game, especially against a second-year quarterback.

Los Angeles Rams vs Chicago Bears

• Overall DVOA: Los Angeles 2nd vs Chicago 16th
• Offensive DVOA: Los Angeles 10th vs Chicago 9th
• Defensive DVOA: Los Angeles 1st vs Chicago 25th

Edge: Rams – Another example of the analytics being significantly different than the seeding/record of the teams. Los Angeles had a surprisingly difficult time with the Carolina Panthers and now has to match up with Ben Johnson and Caleb Williams, who just figure out how to win games in comeback fashion regularly. The biggest data mismatch of the weekend has just a 3.5-point spread, with weather lingering as a variable that could change things.

DVOA provides another piece of information as you make betting decisions, discuss the playoffs with your coworkers, or while making daily fantasy decisions. We are excited to see the games played on the field and see whether or not FTN’s DVOA was able to predict a majority of the games this weekend, including against the spread in one of them.