Alabama football bold predictions for Rose Bowl CFP quarterfinal vs. Indiana

The stage is set for one of the most intriguing David-versus-Goliath matchups in modern college football history. When No. 9 Alabama takes the field at the Rose Bowl on New Year’s Day against No. 1 Indiana, the Crimson Tide will face an undefeated program that has shattered decades of mediocrity while simultaneously carrying the massive burden of blue-blood pedigree.

Indiana’s historic run — led by Heisman Trophy winner Fernando Mendoza — has captivated the nation, but Alabama’s experience in championship moments, combined with the Crimson Tide’s recent offensive explosion against Oklahoma, suggests this quarterfinal clash will be far more competitive than many analysts are projecting.

Here are three bold predictions for how Alabama will attack the Hoosiers’ fortress-like defense and potentially orchestrate one of the season’s most stunning upsets.

Ty Simpson Will Exceed 300 Passing Yards in the Second Half

Simpson’s resume took a significant hit down the stretch, failing to surpass 300 passing yards since Alabama’s loss to Oklahoma in November. This statistical crater has overshadowed a critical fact: Simpson’s arm talent against elite defenses remains exceptional. When facing Georgia’s dominant defense in the SEC Championship, Simpson carved up the Bulldogs for 192 yards and two touchdowns, earning SEC Championship Game MVP honors and demonstrating his ceiling against top-tier competition.​

Indiana’s defense, while statistically elite across most metrics, has a subtle vulnerability Indiana itself hasn’t fully exploited: the Hoosiers rank fourth in total yards allowed but have primarily achieved this through a smothering run defense that averages 77.6 rushing yards surrendered per game. Against elite passing attacks that impose vertical pressure early, Indiana’s secondary becomes increasingly exposed. Alabama’s weapons— such as their trio of receivers, including Germie Bernard, Ryan Williams, and Isaiah Horton—will stretch Indiana’s coverage vertically and horizontally. Simpson, operating with time provided by Alabama’s offensive line, will find his rhythm in the second half, ultimately surpassing 300 passing yards and leading Alabama to multiple scoring drives when the game enters its final quarters.​

Alabama’s Aggressive Defensive Scheme Will Force Fernando Mendoza Into Two-Plus Turnovers

Indiana’s Heisman Trophy-winning quarterback has been nothing short of exceptional, leading the nation in passing touchdowns with 33 scores while demonstrating elite decision-making throughout his transfer season. However, the narrative around Mendoza conveniently omits one critical vulnerability: his tendency to hold the football in critical moments.

Enter Alabama’s defensive coordinator Kane Wommack, who has spent the past several weeks designing a game plan specifically built to exploit this tendency.

Kane Wommack wants his defense to use Mendoza’s Heisman as motivation as the Tide prepare for the Hoosiers offense. https://t.co/2WO4BrH89W pic.twitter.com/j2XrD4LsZl

— Touchdown Alabama (@TDAlabamaMag) December 29, 2025

Rather than playing conservative coverage, expect Alabama to unleash a relentless pass rush up the middle, forcing Mendoza to escape the pocket into pre-planned coverage rotations that will compress his throwing windows. With Alabama’s defensive line operating at peak efficiency following the second-half explosion against the Sooners, look for the Crimson Tide to generate at least three sacks and force at least two turnovers, dramatically shifting momentum in a tight game.​

Alabama’s Running Game Will Generate 140-Plus Yards, Controlling Line of Scrimmage Momentum

Indiana’s defense is formidable against the run, but Alabama’s recent trajectory suggests a different narrative in the Rose Bowl. The Crimson Tide’s running attack, which looked anemic through the regular season, experienced a renaissance in the second half against Oklahoma, accumulating crucial second-half gains that transformed Alabama’s comeback attempt into a resounding quarterfinal victory. This trend will continue against Indiana, as Kalen DeBoer’s offensive system deliberately mirrors the concepts that proved most effective against Oklahoma’s defensive line.​

Alabama’s stable of running backs — featuring Daniel Hill and Jamarion Miller — will attack Indiana’s front seven at the point of attack, specifically targeting the gaps where the Hoosiers’ defense has shown marginal vulnerabilities. While Indiana allows just 77.6 rushing yards per game, these statistics were compiled against Big Ten competition; Alabama’s elite offensive line represents the most formidable blocking unit Indiana has faced all season.

Expect the Crimson Tide to establish early offensive rhythm through the running game, controlling the line of scrimmage and dictating tempo for the first three quarters. By controlling the clock and keeping Indiana’s explosive offense on the sideline, Alabama will accumulate 140-plus rushing yards while simultaneously setting up play-action passes that will stress Indiana’s secondary coverage integrity.

This Rose Bowl quarterfinal represents far more than a simple mismatch between tradition and ascendant upstart. Alabama enters Pasadena as a team hitting its stride at precisely the right moment, with an offense finally executing at championship caliber and a defense increasingly comfortable with the assignment of neutralizing elite talent.

Indiana’s offensive firepower is undeniable, but the Hoosiers have never faced an opponent with Alabama’s institutional championship experience or coordinators of Wommack and DeBoer’s caliber. If Alabama’s defense can force turnovers, Simpson can establish vertical rhythm, and the ground game can control the line of scrimmage, the Crimson Tide will prove why they remain one of college football’s most formidable blue-bloods. Expect a classic New Year’s Day battle that will ultimately go down to the final moments in Pasadena.

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