7 players who could be the No. 1 pick in the 2026 NFL Draft, ranked by likelihood

The 2025 NFL regular season is a wrap and the Las Vegas Raiders are officially on the clock with the No. 1 overall pick in the 2026 NFL Draft. Pete Carroll’s lone season with the AFC West franchise was an unmitigated failure and there’s a strong chance that he’ll have already been dismissed by the team you read this.

Whoever the Raiders tab as head coach in 2026 will undergo a rebuild and will have the luxury of selecting the franchise’s next cornerstone. There’s a number of top prospects that could potentially hear their name called first by Roger Goodell in April and we’ll rank the likeliest ones that will be calling Vegas home.

1. Fernando Mendoza, QB, Indiana

Las Vegas has been in need of a true franchise quarterback since Derek Carr’s departure following the 2022 season and Fernando Mendoza seems like the no-brainer pick at the moment. The 6’5”, 225-pound Heisman Trophy winner has shown both the poise and the grit of a starting NFL QB this year and just showed the country what he can do on a big stage in by leading a 38-3 beatdown of Alabama in the Rose Bowl. Raiders minority owner Tom Brady even praised him recently on FOX, a not-so-subtle hint at where the franchise could lean in April. Things could obviously change between now and then, but Mendoza rocking the Silver and Black remains the likeliest outcome.

2. Dante Moore, QB, Oregon

Or…the Raiders could fall in love with Dante Moore, who will actually go head-to-head with Mendoza in the Peach Bowl semifinal this Friday night. The 6’3”, 206-pound QB has done an effective job at leading the Ducks all the way up to the CFP semis this season and scouts have been impressed with his poise, arm strength, and ball placement in just his first season as the starter. There is a possibility of him returning to Oregon in 2026, taking him off the board this year. But if he does decide to leave school for the pros, then the Raiders will give him a thorough look over the next few months.

3. Rueben Bain Jr., Edge, Miami

Many would argue for Rueben Bain Jr. being the top overall prospect in this class because buddy, have you seen the havoc that he’s been wreaking in the College Football Playoff? The Miami defensive end has racked up 4.5 sacks and a blocked field through the first two rounds of the CFP as he continues to show why he earned ACC Defensive Player of the Year honors. With the Raiders possibly trading All-Pro defensive end Maxx Crosby in the offseason, they’d be in the market for another game wrecker coming off the edge. Bain would be a good choice to fill that void, but QB remains a higher priority.

4. Spencer Fano, OT, Utah

The Raiders had possibly the worst offensive line in the league this season and was a primary reason why they struggled to put points on the board. Some of that would be remedied by taking the top offensive tackle on the board in Spencer Fano, who won the Outland Trophy this season by blocking for a Utah team that averaged 270 rushing yards a game. Anchoring the offensive line with a 6’6” monster would be a good investment for years to come and it would be a move to make if they decided to address QB through free agency.

5. Francis Mauigoa, OT, Miami

Mauigoa is projected to be the second offensive tackle to be taken off the board behind Fano and could make a case for himself at No. 1 if he continues to make an impact for Miami during its playoff run. He earned the ACC’s Jacobs Blocking Trophy this year by anchoring an offensive line that has only allowed 11 sacks for the entire regular season and he has incredible speed for his size. Like Fano, he’d be an adequate choice at No. 1 if the Raiders have already addressed their primary need at QB.

6. Arvell Reese, LB, Ohio State

Like Bain, Arvell Reese could be the top defensive prospect taken off the board and he’ll come into the league prepared after spending a year under the tutelage of longtime Patriots assistant Matt Patricia. He was unleashed this season as a linebacker/pass rusher hybrid and he’s already drawing some comparisons to Micah Parsons. The Raiders could use a force like Reese in their front seven, especially if they let leading tackler Devin White walk in free agency. However, they’d be better served going with one of the previous options mentioned at No. 1.

7. Carnell Tate, WR, Ohio State

Drafting a receiver No. 1 overall in this class would be absurd, but it’s the Raiders baby. Expect the unexpected. So with the hypothetical assumption that they’ve already gotten their QB/OT concerns addressed in free agency, what if they wanted to get him some immediate firepower? What if they went all in on Carnell Tate, who was a Biletnikoff Award semifinalist even while serving as the Buckeyes’ No. 2 option behind Jeremiah Smith. Look, Ohio State receivers are dominating the league right now and if there’s a franchise that would take a gigantic risk on one, it’s the Raiders.