4 bold predictions for Team USA’s Paul Skenes in World Baseball Classic

Paul Skenes enters the 2026 World Baseball Classic with a resume that already places him among the sport’s most dominant pitchers. His rapid ascent has made him arguably the most highly anticipated pitcher in the upcoming tournament, and his presence could play a major role in shaping Team USA’s outlook in the event.

Team USA has a loaded pitching staff featuring several elite arms, but the towering right-handed flamethrower brings a rare combination of elite run prevention and overpowering swing-and-miss stuff. His fastball regularly reaches triple digits, while his slider and splinker force hitters into uncomfortable swings. Those weapons have produced massive strikeout totals at every level of baseball for Skenes.

With that momentum entering international play, here are four bold predictions for what Skenes could accomplish in the tournament ahead of the United States’ first WBC game vs. Brazil on Friday.

Prediction 1: Skenes posts the lowest ERA among qualifying WBC starters

The first prediction centers on run prevention.

Few pitchers in the tournament can match the consistency the 23-year-old has shown across multiple levels of competition. His dominance first emerged during his final college season at LSU. In 2023, Skenes went 13–2 with a 1.69 ERA across 122.2 innings while striking out an NCAA-leading 209 batters. Opponents hit just .165 against him as the Tigers captured the 2023 College World Series title.

That combination gives the right-hander a devastating swing-and-miss repertoire.

The transition to the majors only reinforced that reputation. During the 2024 season, Skenes delivered one of the most impressive rookie campaigns in recent memory with the Pittsburgh Pirates. He posted a 1.96 ERA across 133 innings while recording 170 strikeouts, setting a rookie strikeout record for the franchise while earning 2024 National League Rookie of the Year honors.

He followed that season with an even stronger campaign.

In 2025, Skenes captured the NL Cy Young Award unanimously after finishing with a 1.97 ERA, 216 strikeouts, and a 0.95 WHIP across 187.2 innings. His performance placed him near the top of the league in nearly every major pitching category.

That level of dominance suggests the Pirates ace could realistically finish the World Baseball Classic with the lowest ERA among starters who reach at least ten innings. Short tournaments with pitch limits often favor pitchers with elite swing-and-miss arsenals, and Skenes is exactly that type of pitcher.

Prediction 2: Skenes records a double-digit strikeout game

Strikeouts have defined the right-hander throughout his career.

Skenes struck out 170 hitters during his rookie season before increasing that total to 216 strikeouts during his 2025 NL Cy Young campaign. Those numbers point out how frequently his pitches overwhelm opposing hitters.

A triple-digit fastball anchors his approach, but the real difficulty for hitters comes from the full pitch combination. His slider creates a sharp break late in the count, while the splinker, a pitch that combines elements of a splitter and a sinker, generates weak contact and swings over the top.

This combination of pitches provides the right-handed pitcher with a devastating repertoire

The World Baseball Classic format could enhance that advantage. Many hitters will face Skenes only once during the event, and unfamiliarity often benefits pitchers with world-class velocity and command.

One dominant outing could easily turn into a double-digit strikeout performance if Skenes works deep enough into a start.

Prediction 3: Skenes becomes Team USA’s de facto ace

Short tournaments often reveal the one pitcher managers trust above the rest.

That profile is exactly what managers value most in elimination games.

Starters who miss bats and limit traffic on the bases tend to receive the biggest assignments once the knockout rounds begin. Skenes fits that role perfectly.

If Team USA reaches the later stages of the tournament, Skenes would likely be one of the most logical choices to take the ball in a win-or-go-home game before the championship round of the WBC. His ability to overpower hitters and control the pace of a game makes him an ideal option when the stakes are highest.

Prediction 4: Skenes makes a legitimate MVP push

The final prediction centers on the possibility of tournament MVP honors.

Recent World Baseball Classic history shows how a dominant pitcher can win the award. Japan’s Daisuke Matsuzaka remains the only two-time WBC MVP, including a 2009 tournament where he went 3-0 with a 2.45 ERA across 14.2 innings to anchor Japan’s title run.

Team USA saw a similar pitching-driven MVP performance in 2017 when Marcus Stroman posted a 2.35 ERA across three starts. Stroman carried a no-hitter into the seventh inning of the championship game against Puerto Rico and finished with six shutout innings in the 8-0 shutout win.

Even two-way star Shohei Ohtani delivered a defining moment on the mound during his 2023 MVP run for Team Japan. Ohtani struck out his then-Los Angeles Angels teammate Mike Trout on a full count to seal Japan’s championship win over Team USA.

Those examples show how one dominant knockout round performance can shape the MVP narrative.

If Team USA makes a deep run and Skenes delivers a standout performance in an elimination game, he could quickly move into the center of the MVP conversation.

A tournament stat line featuring a sub-2.00 ERA with one defining knockout-round performance would fit the same profile past voters have rewarded.

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