3 reasons why Miami football can pull off stunning upset of Indiana in CFP title game

After a long, grueling college football season and a tightly-contested College Football Playoff, just Miami and Indiana remain. The two unlikely competitors will fight for the national championship on Monday night in Miami, with the Hurricanes getting essentially a home game with the trophy on the line.

Miami barely snuck into the CFP field as the No. 10 seed, the final at-large spot, after a 10-2 regular season. The Hurricanes reached high highs, such as a win over Notre Dame to start the season, but also dipped to some low lows in stunning losses to Louisville and SMU.

In the CFP, Miami has started to play its best football and dominated the line of scrimmage on both sides of the ball. The Hurricanes went on the road and beat Texas A&M in a 10-3 slugfest before upsetting No. 2 Ohio State 24-14 in the Cotton Bowl. In the semifinals, Carson Beck led a game-winning drive to beat No. 6 Ole Miss 31-27 at the Fiesta Bowl.

In the title game, Miami will be up against its toughest test yet. No. 1 Indiana came into the CFP with a perfect 13-0 record and has backed that up with a pair of dominant performances, a 38-3 win over Alabama in the Rose Bowl and a 56-22 demolition of Oregon in the Peach Bowl. The Hoosiers have dominated most of their opponents all season and will look to continue that on Monday night.

While Indiana is a massive test for Miami, the Hurricanes present their own problems that Indiana hasn’t necessarily seen this season. Here are three reasons why the Hurricanes can pull the upset.

Miami’s defensive line can control the game

Indiana has handled a pair of talented defensive lines in Oregon and Alabama, but an even better unit in Ohio State gave the Hoosiers a little but of trouble in the Big Ten Championship Game. Miami’s front four has dominated most of this College Football Playoff, with star edge rushers Rueben Bain Jr. and Akheem Mesidor wrecking shop on the outside.

But in order to earn the right to rush the passer, the Hurricanes have to stop the run on early downs. They have done exactly that against three strong running games in these playoffs. Texas A&M ran for just 2.5 yards per carry before Miami held Ohio State to 1.9 yards per rush. Ole Miss had a little more success, running for 121 yards on 21 carries, but a lot of that came on a 73-yard touchdown run by Kewan Lacy.

In the Ole Miss game, the Hurricanes played most of the day without standout defensive tackle Ahmad Moten Sr. due to an ankle injury, but Moten is not on the injury report coming into the title game and should be good to go. Indiana has a better rushing attack than anyone else that Miami has played against this season, so that will be a crucial battle in this game.

If Miami can stop the run and force Fernando Mendoza into obvious passing situations, that’s where Bain and Mesidor can really make an impact. In the CFP, Bain has four sacks and 21 pressures in three games, and Mesidor has 19 pressures and three sacks of his own.

That pressure has gotten to all three opposing quarterbacks that Miami has played against. Marcel Reed was pressured on 18 of 52 dropbacks in the first round, completing just 6-of-9 passes for 50 yards. Julian Sayin was pressured nearly half the time, on 17 of his 40 dropbacks, finishing just 5-for-12 with 30 yards and an interception on those plays. Trinidad Chambliss handled things a bit better, but still was just 8-for-15 with 95 yards under pressure.

It’s very hard to get by this Indiana offensive line and get to Fernando Mendoza, as the Heisman Trophy winner has been pressured on less than 30% of his dropbacks on the season. However, this Miami defensive line has the kind of individual specimens that can buck that trend in this game.

Miami’s running game has been improving

Miami’s offense has been very inconsistent throughout the season, and a lot of that comes down to the passing game. However, in this College Football Playoff, Mario Cristobal’s squad has found a real identity of running the football that has built a sustainable foundation for the Hurricanes to sustain drives.

Star running back Mark Fletcher Jr. has been right at the center of that. In the three CFP games, Fletcher has run the ball 58 times for 395 yards and is the primary reason why Miami has been able to control the clock.

Now, there is reason to believe that it will be much tougher to establish the run against Indiana. Fletcher’s least successful game of those three CFP games came against the best run defense it faced in Ohio State. The Buckeyes have the No. 7 run defense in the country, and Indiana’s run defense ranks second in the nation behind only Texas Tech this season.

Indiana has been very stout against the run in this playoff, giving up just 23 yards on 17 carries on the ground against Alabama before holding a very good Oregon attack to just 93 yards on 26 carries. Now, Alabama hasn’t been able to run the ball all season and Oregon was forced into a pass-heavy game script after falling into an early hole, but this stout Indiana defense provided plenty of resistance.

Miami’s run game hasn’t been elite all season, but it certainly has been in the last three games. Whether that keeps up or not could decide who walks away a champion on Monday night.

Carson Beck has been taking care of the football

Carson Beck is one of the most experienced quarterbacks in all of college football, but he has built a bit of a reputation as an erratic, turnover-prone passer. That was on full display during the first half of the season, when Beck threw nine interceptions in his first eight games. That stretch includes two picks in an overtime loss to SMU and four interceptions in a loss to Louisville.

However, Beck has cleaned things up over the last seven games, throwing just two picks compared to 15 touchdowns as Miami has rattled off seven wins in a row.

One of Indiana’s many specialties on defense is taking the ball away. The Hoosiers currently rank third in the FBS in takeaways with 29 on the season, including 18 interceptions.

Indiana forces a lot of those bad decisions from opposing quarterbacks because defensive coordinator Bryant Haines excels at changing the coverage picture after the snap and confusing the opposing signal-caller.

Beck has been prone to that at times in his career, and there will be situations where he is forced to make plays with his arm. Can he not only protect the ball, but make plays and move the chains against those complex defenses? That could be the difference on Monday night.

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