X-Factors for every team in the AFC, NFC Championship games

Now that we’re on to the Conference Championship games, the oxygen gets thinner, and just about everything is as stake. One big play could send you to Super Bowl LX just as easily as one big mistake could send you home. Coaching and game plans and adjustments obviously matter, but at a certain point, it’s about the Jimmies and Joes as much or more as it is about the Xs and Os.

With that in mind, here’s one X-Factor for all four teams in the Conference Championship games this Sunday— players whose importance will be paramount in the games, even if their efforts haven’t seen the national recognition they deserve. Click on the player links to read the full articles.

Denver Broncos: QB Jarrett Stidham

Stidham’s future took a nice uptick when the Broncos signed him to a two-year, $10 million contract in March, 2023, and gave him a two-year, $12 million contract in March, 2025. Clearly, there’s a lot about Stidham that [Broncos head coach Sean] Payton likes.

“It started with our evaluation in New Orleans of him,” Payton said last Sunday, when asked why he believes that Stidham is ready for this particular crucible. “He was a target for us in the draft. That doesn’t really mean anything other than we liked this player coming out. I know how he was coached in New England. I know exactly how he was coached in New England. Then I know how [Patriots Offensive Coordinator Josh] McDaniels felt about him when he brought him from New England to Vegas. Then I know reports on how he played, and then we saw him play real time. But ultimately, to answer your question, it’s our three years here. In our three years, watching him day-in and day-out that you guys don’t have access to.

“He will be ready to go, and ready for the moment.”

We saw none of Stidham during the 2025 regular season, and yes, the preseason comes with its own caveats, but in the 2025 preseason, Stidham completed 30 of 38 passes for 376 yards, four touchdowns, no interceptions, and a passer rating of 143.0. And he wasn’t going up against the usual vanilla defenses you’d expect in exhibition games — the Arizona Cardinals in particular gave him a lot to think about pre- and post-snap.

New England Patriots: EDGE K’Lavon Chaisson

It’s the most interesting question of the NFL’s current postseason: What in the blue hell has gotten into the New England Patriots’ defense lately?

The same defense that ranked 23rd in DVOA in the regular season, and had to get a bump from 26th to 16th in the second half of the season to even get there, has become the NFL’s newest malevolent force. In their two postseason games against the Los Angeles Chargers and the Houston Texans, the Patriots saw their Defensive DVOA drop from +5.5% to -49.4%. As Defensive DVOA is better when it’s negative, this is a lot like going from a below-average squad to the 2000 Baltimore Ravens or the 2013 Seattle Seahawks overnight. New England’s run defense DVOA dropped from -8.1% to -40.0%, the pass defense DVOA dropped from -16.0% to -53.9%, and a red zone defense that had been the NFL’s worst in the regular season allowed one touchdown in two playoff games.

Yes, they were going up against the Chargers’ nonexistent offensive line, and a version of C.J. Stroud that nobody imagined possible when Stroud took the NFL by storm in his rookie season of 2023, but it would be unfortunate to assume that the Patriots defense didn’t have a lot to do with that.

Key among these defenders has been edge defender K’Lavon Chaisson, who has gone from first-round bust with the Jacksonville Jaguars, who selected him with the 20th overall pick in the 2020 draft out of LSU, to respectable role-player with the Las Vegas Raiders in 2024 with his six sacks and 29 total pressures, to his current place as the most prolific pass-rusher on this defense.

Seattle Seahawks: WR/Returner Rashid Shaheed

It was one of those trades that created a blip on the radar at the time, but even the Seattle Seahawks may not have known just what an effect the addition of former New Orleans Saints receiver/returner/runner Rashid Shaheed would have on the franchise when they dealt 2026 fourth- and fifth-round picks for Shaheed’s services on November 4. Offensive coordinator Klint Kubiak obviously knew what Shaheed could do based on Kubiak’s role as the Saints’ offensive coordinator in 2024, but what the 2022 undrafted free agent out of Weber State has done for the Seahawks has been above and beyond.

Not so much as a receiver, though Shaheed does have the speed to take the top off a defense — he’s caught just 15 passes on 25 targets for 188 yards and no touchdowns since the trade — but as a wild-card in the run game, and most certainly as a return stud, Shaheed has made all the difference in the world.

You don’t need to tell the Los Angeles Rams, who have already dealt with Shaheed three times this season, and will have to do it again in Sunday’s NFC Championship Game (6:30 p.m. EST, FOX). Shaheed caught two passes on four targets for 27 yards in Los Angeles’ 21-19 Week 11 win over Seattle, adding a 2-yard run and a 20-yard punt return. That was merely a warmup for what happened in what may have been the NFL’s Game of the Year so far; Seattle’s 38-37 overtime Week 16 win over their division rivals.

In that game, Shaheed caught no passes on no targets, but that’s not what he was there to do. With 7:04 left in the fourth quarter, and the Rams up 30-22, Shaheed took the ball on a misdirection end-around run, and with several blockers running point downfield, ran 31 yards to the Los Angeles 26-yard line. Sam Darnold hit tight end AJ Barner for a 26-yard touchdown on the next play, and with one of the weirdest two-point conversions ever, Seattle had tied the game.

Los Angeles Rams: Safety Kam Curl

Curl has come up in those important moments more often than not this season. He’s allowed 49 catches on 64 targets for 443 yards, one touchdown, three interceptions, four pass breakups, and an opponent passer rating of 80.4. He also has 104 solo tackles, 36 stops, two tackles for loss, one forced fumble, two sacks, and six total pressures. Curl has lined up in split safety on 42% of his snaps, 31% as a single-high safety, 18% in the box, and 10% in the slot. So, he fits the modern model of effective versatility to which safeties must adhere.

“So many ways,” [Rams head coach Sean] McVay said on Wednesday, when asked how Curl contributes to the defense. “He’s obviously excellent in the pass game. I think he’s got a great understanding with the concept trigger. You look at the play that he made the other day, it was unbelievable. I think he’s got a great feel for when he is part of the run fits and just being able to aggressively close space, long stride, short stride, shuffle-and-shoot, and we can activate him as a blitzer. He’s a versatile piece. I thought he was instrumental in how well we played defensively the other day. He’s a freaking stud. What an unbelievable play by him when we had to have it. That was competitive greatness at its finest.”

The Rams will need Curl at his peak on Sunday, because their pass defense has been springing leaks of late.