Week 14 NFL Survivor pool strategy with safe, value, trap picks

The NFL has made it through Thanksgiving and we’re coming into the home stretch of the 2025-26 regular season. There are five weeks remaining and that means your favorite team is hopefully firming up its playoff position, and you are maybe still battling it out in the closing stages of a Survivor pool.

Last week, I was dealt a crushing defeat thanks to the Rams. I was one of the final 11 entries in a pool of 345. Two got knocked out picking the Eagles over the Bears on Friday. I listed Rams over Panthers as a strong value pick in my column last week. That turned out poorly as the Rams never could quite get things going. Matthew Stafford was a turnover machine, and their defense could not get the stops they needed.

I have two entries in a double-elimination pool where I’m down a strike with each. I took the Dolphins value pick and also rolled the dice with what felt like a trap pick in the Chargers over the Raiders. Those both panned out, so I remain alive heading into Week 14.

Safest picks

Rams over Cardinals

The Rams burned me, but it feels like a nearly obvious result that they handle their business this week. A divisional game pick is not ideal, but I think the Rams bounce back handily.

Best value picks

Bucs over Saints
Seahawks over Falcons

Another divisional pick, but the Saints are awful. Maybe it ends up close, but this is the week you take the Bucs if you have not yet. Their remaining four games against the Falcons, Panthers, Dolphins, and Panthers are all tough ones and the value isn’t there.

The Falcons can be dangerously inconsistent. I think Seattle handles their business, but this could be a game where you’re on the edge of your seat. Seattle has value because I don’t think you use them the rest of the way against the Colts, Rams, Panthers, or 49ers.

Trap picks

Broncos over Raiders

The Broncos keep winning in spite of themselves. There’s not much value left on their schedule (Packers, Jaguars, Chiefs, Chargers), so if you do want to fire them off, this would be the week. But of all the divisional games on the schedule, this is the one I would probably avoid.