The anticipated UFC 316 card — anchored by Merab Dvalishvili going for a second win over Sean O’Malley — is heavy on drama and underdogs.
Let’s get proper to swinging with a take a look at the perfect bets for this battle card:
Serghei Spivac (-140) to beat Waldo Cortes-Acosta
Spivac is a significantly better wrestler than Cortes-Acosta, and whereas Spivac’s stand-up sport is missing, his 8-inch attain benefit on this battle ought to assist him reduce a few of the hole in that space.
4 of Spivac’s 5 losses within the UFC have come by knockout, and Cortes-Acosta’s energy isn’t all that daunting regardless of his benefit within the stand-up sport — he has only a 46.2% knockout price in his 13 bouts.
I count on Spivac to climate the storm early earlier than benefiting from a tiring Cortes-Acosta on the bottom within the second half of the battle en route to a victory by choice or a late submission.
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Sean O’Malley (+220) to beat Merab Dvalishvili
As somebody who efficiently wager on Dvalishvili within the first bout towards O’Malley on the Sphere this previous September, one thing feels completely different about this battle.
O’Malley appears infinitely extra centered within the lead-up, having minimized his distractions and antics outdoors of the octagon. He truly stored that first battle nearer than most keep in mind, regardless of Dvalishvili’s goal victory — and he even had Dvalishvili on the ropes a little bit bit within the fifth and ultimate spherical.
O’Malley’s coach has stated in latest interviews that he believed the Sphere’s lighting and environment contributed to O’Malley’s loss, which isn’t that arduous to consider in case you’ve ever been inside that factor.
However, we’ve nonetheless gotten the identical outdated, standard from Dvalishvili in his battle camp. He’s nonetheless posting his accidents on his Instagram Story — a lot to Dana White’s dismay — which tells me he won’t be taking O’Malley that critically.
When it comes to mentality, it feels just like the playing cards have flipped from the primary battle, and that’s why I really feel snug rolling with O’Malley’s worth right here.
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Kayla Harrison vs. Julianna Peña underneath 3.5 rounds (-140)
Kayla Harrison is out to show she’s the UFC’s greatest star within the ladies’s division this Saturday, and he or she enters as a large -800 favourite to win the belt — regardless of coming into because the challenger — towards scrappy Julianna Peña.
Regardless of this, Harrison’s odds to win the battle by choice are simply +235. Which means Vegas is confidently predicting a stoppage.
Contemplating Peña is a extra skilled fighter who possesses knockout energy in her personal proper, I count on her to go attempting to find the kill early — understanding she has a diminishing likelihood with every second Harrison stays aware.
Peña isn’t a scrub both, as she carries two wins over former champion Amanda Nunes. Somebody is getting stopped on this one — and will probably be earlier than the fourth-round bell. Probably Peña.
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