Timberwolves vs. Nuggets 2025 NBA Christmas prediction, odds, pick,

The NBA’s Christmas Day slate reaches its peak as we bring you a betting prediction and pick for a Western Conference heavyweight clash. The Minnesota Timberwolves (20-10) will take on the Denver Nuggets (21-8) from Ball Center in Denver, Colorado. Check our NBA Christmas odds series for the Timberwolves-Nuggets prediction and pick.

The Minnesota Timberwolves most recently took down the New York Knicks 115-108 on Tuesday, extending their winning streak to three games behind a 38-point masterpiece from Anthony Edwards. With their defense returning to elite form, they enter this holiday showcase looking to make a statement against the team that ended their season in 2024.

The Denver Nuggets are coming off a disappointing one-point defeat against the Dallas Mavericks on Tuesday. They have now lost two of their last three and are looking to get back on track in this Christmas special when they take on the surging Minnesota Timberwolves.

NBA Cup odds courtesy of  DraftKings

Timberwolves vs. Nuggets NBA Cup Final Odds

Minnesota Timberwolves: +1.5 (-105)

Denver Nuggets: -1.5 (-115)

Over: 231.5 (-110)

Under: 231.5 (-110)

Timberwolves vs. Nuggets Key Injuries 

*update to come once Injury Reports are submitted by both teams*

Minnesota: Jaden McDaniels, Ques (oblique)

Denver: Aaron Gordon, OUT (hamstring) / Cameron Johnson, OUT (knee), Tamar Bates, OUT (foot), Christian Braun, OUT (ankle)

Timberwolves vs. Nuggets Betting Trends

• The Denver Nuggets are 19-7 as betting favorites. The Timberwolves are 2-4 when billed as underdogs.
• The Niggets are 17-12 ATS overall this season. The Timberwolves are 12-18 ATS overall.
• The Timberwolves are 4-6 ATS in their last 10 games.
• The Nuggets are 5-5 ATS in their last 10 games.
• The Timberwolves are 3-0 outright, 2-1 ATS in their last three games overall.
• The total has gone UNDER in seven of the Timberwolves’ last 10 games.
• The total has gone OVER in seven of the Nuggets’ last 10 games.

Keys to Timberwolves vs. Nuggets Matchup

Both of these teams have had a dominant run leading up to this Christmas Day marquee, with the Denver Nuggets maintaining their stranglehold on the Western Conference’s third seed. However, the Minnesota Timberwolves have seemingly turned a corner with three straight victories, including a statement win over the Knicks, where their offense finally caught up to their elite defense. Anthony Edwards has been on a tear since the team’s minor roster adjustments earlier in the month, and it’ll be interesting to see if his explosive scoring can disrupt Denver’s disciplined scheme in a way it hasn’t in their previous two meetings this season.

The Nuggets look like the more complete team thanks to the unparalleled efficiency of Nikola Jokic. The three-time MVP is having another historic campaign, averaging a near triple-double and shooting an absurd 58% from the field over his last 10 games. Jamal Murray is doing a great job playing the complementary role this season, filling the energetic void on the perimeter—not only are the Nuggets dangerous with their half-court execution, but they’ve also become opportunistic in transition, capitalizing on opponents’ live-ball turnovers.

Still, Anthony Edwards will pose a huge mismatch on the perimeter, and the Nuggets will have to come up with an answer for his three-level scoring. Denver ranks middle-of-the-pack in defending the three-point line, a weakness Edwards can exploit after knocking down five triples in his last outing. The battle on the glass will be equally crucial; they must limit Minnesota’s second-chance opportunities, specifically keeping Rudy Gobert and Julius Randle off the offensive boards to prevent easy kick-outs to shooters.

The Timberwolves have been impressive on the defensive end in their own right, and with a fully healthy rotation heading into this game, they should be able to match up well against the size and continuity of the Denver Nuggets.

Timberwolves vs. Nuggets Prediction and Pick

Both teams have looked to be in peak form heading into this game, making for what should be an electrifying Christmas Day showcase from Ball Center. The two squads will meet for the third time this season, with Denver taking the first two battles, but the Timberwolves have been the story of the last week. Anthony Edwards will be the key to their success as he’s averaging 30.4 PPG, 5.4 RPG, and 6.6 APG in his last five games against Denver, consistently raising his level of play against the reigning champs.

The Nuggets, on the other hand, will lean on Nikola Jokic for most of their offensive production, though he may find tougher sledding in the paint with Rudy Gobert and Julius Randle offering a physical double-big look. The perimeter defenders of Minnesota, led by Jaden McDaniels (who should be good to go despite a questionable tag), are some of the best in the league from a length standpoint, so they should offer ample resistance in locking up Jamal Murray and disrupting Denver’s two-man game.

They’ve found their rhythm offensively over this three-game streak and they’ve elevated their play in front of the home crowd all season, so we’ll continue rolling with the Minnesota Timberwolves as they cover as road underdogs. If he can continue his scoring tear against the Nuggets’ perimeter defense, Anthony Edwards should be gifting Minnesota fans a signature win to cap off the holiday.

Final Timberwolves-Nuggets NBA Christmas Prediction & Pick: Minnesota Timberwolves +1.5 (-105); OVER 231.5 (-110)

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