Thunder vs. Warriors prediction, odds, pick – 1/2/2026

We’re back for another betting prediction and pick inside the NBA as we turn attention towards this next tilt in the Western Conference. The Oklahoma City Thunder (29-5) will take on the Golden State Warriors (18-16) with OKC leading the season series 2-0. Check our NBA odds series for the Thunder-Warriors prediction and pick.

The Oklahoma City Thunder continue to lead the Western Conference, most recently taking down the Portland Trail Blazers 124-95. After dropping back-to-back games for the first time this season to the Spurs, they’ve responded with three-straight wins heading into the final two games of their current road trip.

The Golden State Warriors are eighth in the Western Conference following a 132-125 win over the Charlotte Hornets their last time out. They’ve won five of their last six games, but they’ll be without their core group of stars looking for the upset at home.

NBA odds courtesy of DraftKings

Thunder vs. Warriors Odds

Oklahoma City Thunder: -13.5 (-112)

Golden State Warriors: +13.5 (-108)

Over: 225.5 (-112)

Under: 225.5 (-108)

Thunder vs. Warriors Key Injuries 

Oklahoma City: Ousmane Dieng (calf – OUT) / Isaiah Hartenstein (calf – OUT) / Thomas Sorber (knee – OUT) / Jaylin Williams (heel – OUT)

Golden State: Al Horford (sciatic nerve – Probable) / Trayce Jackson-Davis (knee – Probable) / Jimmy Butler III (illness – OUT) / Seth Curry (sciatic nerve – OUT) / Stephen Curry (ankle – OUT) / Draymond Green (rest – OUT) / De’Anthony Melton (knee – OUT)

Thunder vs. Warriors Betting Trends

• The Golden State Warriors are 10-4 at home this season. The Oklahoma City Thunder 12-3 are on the road.
• The Warriors are 16-18 ATS overall, 8-6 ATS at home. The Thunder are 18-16 ATS overall, 7-8 ATS on the road.
• The Thunder have been betting favorites in every game this season.
• The Warriors are 4-6 as the betting underdogs.
• The Thunder are 6-4 in their last 10 games against the Warriors. Both teams are 5-5 ATS in those games.
• The Warriors are 3-6 ATS in their last nine games.
• The Thunder are 2-4 ATS in their last six games against the Warriors.
• The total has gone OVER in five of Golden State’s last six games.

Keys to Thunder vs. Warriors Matchup

The Thunder and Warriors will meet for the third time this season, Oklahoma City winning the first two games 126-102 and 124-112. Jonathan Kuminga and Brandin Podziemski served as the Warriors’ leading scorers during those games and they may have to step their efforts up once again with Curry, Butler, and Green all out of the starting lineup for this one. While the Thunder have had trouble covering wide spreads during their wins, they could be in for another lopsided game with the Warriors only at half-strength.

Stephen Curry is accounting for 28.7 PPG for the Warriors, ranking him eighth in NBA scoring. The Warriors are 4-5 without him this season, but they’ve seldom had to deal with both Jimmy Butler and Draymond Green being out alongside him. The Warriors will have to look towards players like Jonathan Kuminga and Trayce Jackson-Davis to have an active game in the paint as they’ll need to be sound defensively. Center Quinten Post has also been productive for them throughout the year, so this could be a situation where he has the green light to let it fly from deep.

The Thunder, however, are at full-strength for the most part and will be tough to handle for the Warriors behind the scoring of Shai Gilgeous-Alexander, currently the second-highest bucket getter in the league. His ability to draw consistent fouls throughout the game is enough to drive any defense mad, but the Warriors simply can’t afford to fall into foul trouble with their limited roster as it is. Expect an active game from Warriors’ Pat Spencer in trying to guard the reigning NBA MVP.

Thunder vs. Warriors Prediction and Pick

The Thunder are favored by double-digits in this game for good reason. The Warriors will be out Stephen Curry, Draymond Green, and Jimmy Butler, leaving players like Moses Moody and Trayce Jackson-Davis having to make up some ground against the best team in the NBA.

This game shouldn’t be close down to the wire and while the Warriors may put up a solid fight through the first two quarters, the Thunder are poised to build a large deficit and hopefully rest their starters towards the end of the game. For our final pick, we’ll roll with the Oklahoma City Thunder to cover the spread on the road.

Final Thunder-Warriors Prediction & Pick: Oklahoma City Thunder -13.5 (-112); OVER 225.5 (-112)

The post Thunder vs. Warriors prediction, odds, pick – 1/2/2026 appeared first on ClutchPoints.